Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
2026-09-12 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
230.78
230.78
52W HIGH
668.06
668.06
DRAWDOWN
-65.5%
-65.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, RSI weak (43.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 28.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.58)
BCH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 639.08
Low: 181.24
Now: 230.78
Low: 181.24
Now: 230.78
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.3 | ADX (14) | 28.8 |
| 50d MA | 231.50 | 200d MA | 326.31 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 199.82 | Resistance | 302.93 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.79%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BCH | -16.6% | -5.6% | -48.0% | -63.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +21.3% | -3.0% | -15.3% |
| ETH | +4.7% | +42.0% | +8.2% | -19.1% |
| SOL | +8.6% | +32.7% | +21.3% | -23.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,999
RETURN
+6.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BCH | +6.7% | -23.9% | -36.9% | 52 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BCH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -63.9% | 5,784 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -40.4% | 8,933 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -47.4% | 7,894 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -40.0% | 9,007 |
BCH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 204.07 (-11.6%) |
| Target 1 | 264.00 (14.4%) |
| Target 2 | 284.00 (23.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 247.14 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 243.19 | -1.6% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 246.91 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 246.01 | -0.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 244.19 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 256.81 | +5.2% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 248.18 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 257.24 | +3.7% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 260.69 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 259.02 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 258.34 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 251.82 | -2.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-12 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
1 bull factor vs 9 bear factors and some of you will still ape this dip. ADX 28.8 means an actual trend, not chop to swing trade
fair point on the death cross but RSI 43.3 with the 50d still rising is why im not shorting either. sitting out until it reclaims the 200d
sitting out is the trade. with -65.5% off the high and 9 bear factors even reclaiming the 200d would just be an exit door, not a trend flip
ADX 28.8 plus volume ratio 0.58, this is distribution not a dip. bought the 2018 bottom on BCH, not falling for the dead cat again
volume ratio 0.58 on top of OBV distribution says even the bounces have nobody behind them. -65.5% drawdown and Stage 3 topping, hard pass