Deep Dive Analysis
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
2026-09-12 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
230.78
230.78
52W HIGH
668.06
668.06
DRAWDOWN
-65.5%
-65.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, RSI weak (43.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 28.8), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.58)
BCH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 639.08
Low: 181.24
Now: 230.78
Low: 181.24
Now: 230.78
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.3 | ADX (14) | 28.8 |
| 50d MA | 231.50 | 200d MA | 326.31 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 199.82 | Resistance | 302.93 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.79%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| BCH | -16.6% | -5.6% | -48.0% | -63.9% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +21.3% | -3.0% | -15.3% |
| ETH | +4.7% | +42.0% | +8.2% | -19.1% |
| SOL | +8.6% | +32.7% | +21.3% | -23.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,999
RETURN
+6.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| BCH | +6.7% | -23.9% | -36.9% | 52 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (BCH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -63.9% | 5,784 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -40.4% | 8,933 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -47.4% | 7,894 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -40.0% | 9,007 |
BCH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 204.07 (-11.6%) |
| Target 1 | 264.00 (14.4%) |
| Target 2 | 284.00 (23.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 247.14 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 243.19 | -1.6% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 246.91 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 246.01 | -0.4% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 244.19 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 256.81 | +5.2% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 248.18 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 257.24 | +3.7% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 260.69 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 259.02 | -0.6% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 258.34 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 251.82 | -2.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-12 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
1 bull factor vs 9 bear factors and some of you will still ape this dip. ADX 28.8 means an actual trend, not chop to swing trade
fair point on the death cross but RSI 43.3 with the 50d still rising is why im not shorting either. sitting out until it reclaims the 200d
sitting out is the trade. with -65.5% off the high and 9 bear factors even reclaiming the 200d would just be an exit door, not a trend flip
ADX 28.8 plus volume ratio 0.58, this is distribution not a dip. bought the 2018 bottom on BCH, not falling for the dead cat again
you bought the 2018 bottom and you are using that as your credential to sit out? the setups are nothing alike, ADX was nowhere near this clean back then
the 2018 comparison isnt the credential, the ADX print is. trend strength that clean on BCH means the first 200d reclaim attempt fails, thats how these go
fair that 2018 was messier but a clean ADX print cuts both ways. strong trend down usually means the 199 floor everyone trusts breaks on the first real test, thats my worry anyway
199 breaks and the next real support is basically a round number and a prayer. ADX 28.8 says it gets tested sooner than later
199 is also roughly where the 2019 crowd cost basis sits, break that and the last believers finally capitulate. sadly agreeing with the SELL
if 199 goes the next real bid is the 181 low, thats a 25 percent round trip on a 0.58 volume ratio. exits will be ugly
^ exactly. 1 bull factor being the rising 50d while price sits under it is cope, not signal
ADX 28.8 is exactly why i stopped calling these dips buyable. first 200d reclaim attempt failing up at 326 is basically a scripted move, agreed on sitting this one out
scripted is the right word. the only thing that flips a Stage 3 chart like this is a volume impulse and the 0.58 ratio says that is not walking through the door anytime soon
nine bear factors is the engine finally agreeing with what the chart said since 668. SELL at 230 feels late but exiting is still cheaper than hope
the 15k deployment plan being shelved is the right call but someone at 230 with a 668 high is exactly when the max pain trade appears. still not touching it tho
volume ratio 0.58 on top of OBV distribution says even the bounces have nobody behind them. -65.5% drawdown and Stage 3 topping, hard pass
support at 199 and the 200d way up at 326. thats a long climb for a coin with 1 bull factor. AVOID is generous
and that 199 support got tapped three times this summer with weaker volume on each bounce. when it finally goes it goes fast
nine bullet points to justify the sell while one liquidity line carries the entire bull case. conviction is clearly one sided here. still wouldnt touch 230 with the 200d sitting up at 326
that one liquidity line is the whole reason SELL at 230 actually works tho, thin exit liquidity means the slide gets slippery fast
the 0.58 volume ratio is the receipt for that, no volume means no bids waiting under the exit door either
230 to 326 is a 42 percent climb just to reclaim the mean. bear call sellers have eaten for months and nothing in the 0.58 volume ratio says that trade is done
SELL with the 50d still rising is the uncomfortable part. nine bear factors and the single bull one is just liquidity sellers can exit into
RSI 43.3 keeps the hopers in, ADX 28.8 keeps the trend real. worst combo for anyone still averaging down into bch
0.58 volume ratio on a SELL call is the cleanest confirmation on the page. nobody is lined up to buy this dip and the 200d at 326 agrees