Deep Dive Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
2026-07-25 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.48
0.48
DRAWDOWN
-85.3%
-85.3%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (40.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 32.5), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.53)
DOGE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.16
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.0 | ADX (14) | 32.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.47%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOGE | -8.3% | -30.9% | -31.0% | -55.2% |
| BTC | +1.6% | -16.4% | -14.3% | -31.9% |
| ETH | +4.9% | -11.8% | -20.6% | -39.7% |
| SOL | -9.4% | -13.7% | -23.1% | -46.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,280
RETURN
-38.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-61.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOGE | -38.1% | -72.1% | -61.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOGE)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -55.2% | 4,531 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -50.9% | 7,360 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -48.1% | 7,780 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -44.2% | 8,366 |
DOGE Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.11 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.11 | -0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.10 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.11 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-22 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-23 | SELL | 0.10 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-25 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
85% drawdown and they still rate it AVOID lol. some of us held this since the elon snl top, we know
bro the ADX at 32.5 is literally telling you the bear trend is strong and youre bragging about holding. thats not conviction thats sunken cost
0.07 lmao. remember when people unironically said $1 was conservative
15K deployment into DOGE at $0.07 down 85% from the 52W high. even a SELL rating feels generous for something with zero revenue and a meme community thats moved on
meme_graveyard_ the 52W high of $0.48 was pure Elon pump fundamentals. now at $0.07 with no catalyst it’s just slow bleeding. classic distribution pattern
85% drawdown on a meme coin and people still holding. the cope is unreal. move the capital to something with actual tokenomics