Deep Dive Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
2026-07-25 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.48
0.48
DRAWDOWN
-85.3%
-85.3%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 9 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (40.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 32.5), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.53)
DOGE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.16
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.0 | ADX (14) | 32.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.10 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.08 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.47%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOGE | -8.3% | -30.9% | -31.0% | -55.2% |
| BTC | +1.6% | -16.4% | -14.3% | -31.9% |
| ETH | +4.9% | -11.8% | -20.6% | -39.7% |
| SOL | -9.4% | -13.7% | -23.1% | -46.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,280
RETURN
-38.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-61.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOGE | -38.1% | -72.1% | -61.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOGE)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -55.2% | 4,531 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -50.9% | 7,360 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -48.1% | 7,780 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -44.2% | 8,366 |
DOGE Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.12 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.11 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.11 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.11 | -0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.10 | -1.7% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 0.11 | +1.9% |
| 2026-05-22 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-23 | SELL | 0.10 | +0.7% |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.10 | -0.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-25 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
85% drawdown and they still rate it AVOID lol. some of us held this since the elon snl top, we know
bro the ADX at 32.5 is literally telling you the bear trend is strong and youre bragging about holding. thats not conviction thats sunken cost
0.07 lmao. remember when people unironically said $1 was conservative
15K deployment into DOGE at $0.07 down 85% from the 52W high. even a SELL rating feels generous for something with zero revenue and a meme community thats moved on
meme_graveyard_ the 52W high of $0.48 was pure Elon pump fundamentals. now at $0.07 with no catalyst it’s just slow bleeding. classic distribution pattern
85% drawdown on a meme coin and people still holding. the cope is unreal. move the capital to something with actual tokenomics
Tomer H. the cope is the entire meme coin market. people holding 85% losers because ‘it worked in 2021’. different cycle, same bagholders
Tomer H. 85% drawdown with zero revenue model and people calling it conviction. its a tax writeoff, not a hold
Tomer H. 85 percent drawdown on a meme with no catalyst is not conviction its a tax loss harvest waiting to happen
0.07 from a 0.48 high and they still rate it SELL not AVOID. analysts being polite doesnt help anyone
ADX at 32.5 on DOGE and people in the replies still holding. the trend is literally screaming at you and youre arguing with it
ADX at 32.5 screaming bear and people still coping. the metric is right there in the analysis, trend strength doesnt lie
52W high 0.48 now 0.07. from 126k BTC to 64k BTC and DOGE has zero narrative. even SELL feels polite
trend_floor_ 0.48 to 0.07 and SELL is being generous. DOGE has no revenue model and no dev activity. its a content creator punchline that forgot to die
ADX at 32.5 and people in the replies still diamond handing. the indicator is literally telling you the trend is your enemy and youre arguing with math
people treat ADX like astrology until it prints 32.5 against their bag. trend strength doesnt care that elon might tweet again
the ADX at 32.5 with OBV distribution on top is about as clean a bear confirmation as you get. one bull factor out of ten says it all
Ravi C. ADX at 32.5 with OBV bleeding and the article still gives it a structured framework. respect the methodology even when the ticker is a meme
chiara is right and it hurts. held doge from 0.16 because it always comes back. it doesnt come back, the backtest in this piece flipped short months ago
0.48 to 0.07 with zero cashflows and the comments still fight the signal. Even the 2017 pump had meme virality behind it. This cycle its just habit holding
habit holding is the perfect name for it. every doge holder who actually made money left early, the loyal ones just financed their own cope
sell rating with ADX 32.5 and 85 percent off the high is the site being honest for once. the missing footnote is that every doge rally since the snl top has been a lower high
the lower high series since snl is so clean its basically a diagram. whoever is holding from 0.16 isnt a holder anymore, theyre a museum exhibit
support at 0.07 is the floor of the whole range, one breakdown and there is nothing below until much lower. deploying 15k here is catching a falling knife on purpose
0.07 has held five tests but every bounce died at a lower high. deploying 15k at the bottom of a distribution range is still knife catching, just with a spreadsheet attached
onchain_dennis 0.07 tested five times is a floor only until it breaks. deploying capital there is a bet that the sixth test is different which is never the right side of the math