Deep Dive Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE)
2026-09-06 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.09
0.09
52W HIGH
0.48
0.48
DRAWDOWN
-81.2%
-81.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD bull cross, RSI healthy (63.6), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 38.9), vol 1.33x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 2.4)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
DOGE Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.12
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.09
Low: 0.07
Now: 0.09
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 63.6 | ADX (14) | 38.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.08 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.10 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.86%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOGE | +30.5% | +16.6% | -8.8% | -26.1% |
| BTC | +27.0% | +25.6% | +4.5% | -8.4% |
| ETH | +33.1% | +39.9% | +9.0% | -15.0% |
| SOL | +41.0% | +29.1% | +25.0% | -14.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
22,179
RETURN
-36.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-61.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOGE | -36.6% | -52.5% | -61.4% | 53 | 43% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOGE)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -26.1% | 13,890 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -22.0% | 27,308 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -24.9% | 26,289 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -19.2% | 28,282 |
DOGE Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.08 (-9.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 0.09 | +1.6% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 0.09 | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 0.08 | +0.9% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-09-02 | SELL | 0.08 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-03 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-04 | SELL | 0.08 | -3.4% |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.09 | +1.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-06 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0.10 resistance is the whole trade. if it clears that the ADX setup matters, if not its another 22k bleed year with a green banner on top
big green DEPLOY banner up top and then the backtest chart shows 35k bleeding to 22k. -36.6% over 2 years and that is supposed to sell me on the system lol
Fair point, but the buy and hold comparison was -52.5%. Losing 36 instead of 52 with a -61% max drawdown is kind of the entire trend-following pitch, sadly.
fair point but a system that only wins by losing less needs a bull market to actually pay. doge hasnt given it one since 2021
Fair, but doge printing a higher low at 0.08 while btc chops is the closest thing to a cue it has given since 2021. Ill take that setup.
pretty much. trend following on doge is buy and hold with extra steps until a real catalyst shows up, and ADX 38.9 alone doesnt break 0.10
the pitch for these systems is always lose less than buy and hold. -36.6 vs -52.5 is ugly but its literally the strategy doing its job in a downtrend
^ and the green DEPLOY banner makes it worse lol. paint the thing red while its bleeding, be honest about it
been holding since 0.062 and this is the first take that matches the chart. 0.10 only breaks on real volume tho, thin pokes dont count
nobody gonna mention Target 1 printing as 0.00 (-100.0%)? stop at 0.08 is fine but the targets are straight up broken. makes the R:R 1.5 claim kinda meaningless
this is why i stopped reading these tables. target 1 as 0.00 with a straight face, someone shipped the template without the numbers
noticed the same 0.00 target on a few of these writeups now. fix the template before the next green deploy banner ships, it undermines the whole case
target 1 at 0.00 is my favorite genre of typo. someone ran the backtest, saw -36 percent, and shipped it anyway
same broken 0.00 target on the monero writeup btw. template team shipping bugs faster than doge sheds value
the 0.00 is a template bug, target 1 pulls from an empty field. the R:R math off the 0.08 stop still works even if the printout is broken
if target 1 pulls from an empty field the whole table is suspect tho. you cant cherry pick which numbers still count, either fix the template or drop the R:R claim entirely
the monero page had the same 0.00 bug btw, so its a template issue not a one-off typo. still agree tho, either fix the table or drop the R:R claim
deploying 35k into doge at 9 cents, 81 percent off the high. brave or insane, chart will let us know
81 percent off and people still call it a bargain. it was 81 percent off at 15 cents too, that argument never stops working until it does
exactly, drawdown from ATH is a mood not an entry signal. 0.10 resistance breaking on real volume is the only thing that matters on this chart
and the volume part matters, last two pokes at 0.10 were on thin books. needs a real bid behind it or 9 cents is the ceiling again
checked the depth on that second poke, like 40k of asks sitting there. a golden retriever could walk it up. 9 cents is the ceiling until a real bid shows
40k of asks guarding 0.10 basically confirms it. one 250k market buy walks the wall but nobody left in doge has 250k lol
RSI 63.6 with ADX 38.9 is a genuinely decent setup tbf, and the accumulation numbers back it up. Resistance at 0.10 is the real test though. Deployed one small tranche, keeping the rest dry.
honestly the RSI and ADX numbers are the only reason id even look twice. the money management section is where these plans go to die