This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Polkadot (DOT)
USD 0.8918
USD 11.60
-92.3%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (33.3), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.35)
Low: USD 0.7278
Now: USD 0.8918
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 33.3 | ADX (14) | 24.4 |
| 50d MA | USD 1.10 | 200d MA | USD 1.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.8812 | Resistance | USD 1.29 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.26%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| DOT | -20.2% | -8.7% | +8.7% | -40.9% |
| BTC | -7.6% | -5.7% | +29.4% | +10.2% |
| ETH | -7.3% | -11.2% | +42.3% | +10.2% |
| SOL | -14.3% | -16.2% | +21.3% | +2.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 35,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| DOT | -41.2% | -80.3% | -49.2% | 47 | 51% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (DOT)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 35,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -40.9% | USD 9,655 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -32.4% | USD 23,671 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -33.9% | USD 23,151 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -29.7% | USD 24,619 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify DOT. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.8812 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 1.29 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.7802 (-12.5% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.0558 (6.26%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | USD 1.19 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | USD 1.22 | +2.4% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | USD 1.18 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | USD 1.15 | -1.9% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | USD 1.18 | |
| 2026-10-04 | SELL | USD 1.21 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-05 | BUY | USD 1.23 | |
| 2026-10-06 | SELL | USD 1.20 | -2.4% |
| 2026-10-07 | BUY | USD 1.12 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | USD 1.09 | -2.5% |
| 2026-10-09 | BUY | USD 1.24 | |
| 2026-10-22 | SELL | USD 1.11 | -10.1% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
0.89 with a 52w high of 11.60. i legit forgot dot had an $11 print, brutal chart
down 92% and RSI still only at 33, not even oversold. falling knife until it reclaims that 200d at 1.02 imo
the 1.02 reclaim is the level for sure, but volume under 0.90 looks thin on the chart. stage 4 downtrends usually end with a violent squeeze, wouldnt chase a short here
thin volume cuts both ways tho, only takes one bounce off 0.89 to squeeze everyone shorting under the 200d. watching whether RSI tags oversold before any 1.02 retest
same here, bought the parachain auction hype in 2021 and just watched it bleed since. at least the golden cross gives us one bullish factor out of nine lol
the backtest section is wild. strategy down 41% while buy and hold is down 80%? and the vol ratio at 0.35 screams distribution
51% win rate over 47 trades, basically coin flips after fees lol. that oct 22 sell at 1.11 saved the whole simulation tho