Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum (ETH)
2026-07-29 17:01 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1894.40
1894.40
52W HIGH
4953.73
4953.73
DRAWDOWN
-61.8%
-61.8%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (55.1), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.34)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD bear cross, far below high
ETH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2831.78
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1894.40
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1894.40
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.1 | ADX (14) | 23.5 |
| 50d MA | 1763.10 | 200d MA | 2122.06 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1549.25 | Resistance | 1976.46 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.43%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETH | +8.7% | -6.3% | -11.7% | -33.1% |
| BTC | +2.9% | -13.9% | -9.2% | -26.1% |
| ETH | +8.7% | -6.3% | -11.7% | -33.1% |
| SOL | -5.8% | -11.0% | -18.4% | -45.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
47,431
RETURN
+35.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-22.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETH | +35.5% | -30.5% | -22.6% | 57 | 49% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETH)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -33.1% | 17,411 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -38.7% | 21,468 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -31.7% | 23,898 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -28.5% | 25,030 |
ETH Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1764.51 (-6.9%) |
| Target 1 | 2089.00 (10.3%) |
| Target 2 | 2219.00 (17.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-12 | BUY | 2274.64 | |
| 2026-05-13 | SELL | 2257.58 | -0.8% |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 2280.93 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 2223.33 | -2.5% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 1933.49 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 1877.10 | -2.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 1860.18 | |
| 2026-07-25 | SELL | 1873.22 | +0.7% |
| 2026-07-26 | BUY | 1953.41 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1890.61 | -3.2% |
| 2026-07-28 | BUY | 1919.95 | |
| 2026-07-29 | SELL | 1894.40 | -1.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-29 17:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
eth at 1894 down from 4953. thats a 62% beatdown. HOLD takes real conviction here
ETH at 1894 with OBV trending up and vol ratio 1.34. accumulation happening quietly while everyone trashes ethereum
eth_maximalist_ OBV trending up at 1894 while everyone trashes ETH is the classic accumulation signal. same setup as mid 2022 before the merge pump
down 61.8% from 4953 ATH. eth has been getting punished since the merge hype faded. rough
OBV trending up at these levels is the only bullish signal that matters here. price says doom, on-chain says accumulation
OBV rising while price chops under the 200d at 2122 means coins are moving, it does not tell you which side is patient. plenty of bear market rallies had great OBV too
obv climbing for weeks while price sits under the 200d at 2122 means someone is loading. question is whether they survive a sweep of 1549
obv says loading but a 1549 sweep would wipe out whoever is loading. signals on a downtrend are hopium with a chart attached
1549 already held twice this summer tho. signals on a downtrend are hopium until they arent, mid 2022 OBV looked exactly like this before the turn
35k deployment on ETH at these prices is bold. or smart. probably both
^ oliver putting his money where his mouth is i guess. respect for actually publishing the deployment plan
61.8 percent drawdown from 4953 and Oliver is deploying 35k. either he knows something about the 200d MA or hes just early and stubborn
4 bull vs 4 bear factors and the call is HOLD. classic analyst hedge. pick a side oliver
4 bull vs 4 bear with OBV diverging up is literally a wait signal in any trend following system. forcing a call on something down 62 pct from the top is how you lose in both directions
35k deployment at 62% drawdown from ATH takes conviction most retail doesnt have. oliver is either early or wrong, no middle ground on this one
4 bull vs 4 bear factors is the most Ethereum thing ever. cant even decide on a clear trend
deploying 35k at 62 percent drawdown takes a level of conviction most of us dont have. oliver either sees something in the OBV or hes just stubborn
RSI at 55.1 with rising 50d MA. if ETH breaks 200d this flips to a BUY fast. until then its just noise
35k deployment at 1894 while down 62 percent from ATH. oliver either has diamond conviction or hes catching a falling knife
52w high 4953 and current 1894. the fact that Oliver calls this HOLD not BUY tells you even bulls are scared
support at 1549 is doing all the work in this plan. lose that and the 1386 low is next, and the whole 35k deployment at 1894 suddenly needs a rewrite
1386 as the next stop feels dramatic until you check the drawdown math. 61.8 percent off the 4953 high means the market already repriced this once, a retest is the base case
title says hold, the banner says wait, low conviction either way. oliver is hedging both directions on this one lol
1894, a 35k plan, 4 bull factors against 4 bear. Oliver basically published a coin flip with a support level. Honest, but not exactly actionable.
a coin flip is still a framework. forcing a buy at 1894 under a 200d at 2122 is how people get chopped in both directions