Deep Dive Analysis
Ethereum (ETH)
2026-08-13 09:31 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1890.26
1890.26
52W HIGH
4953.73
4953.73
DRAWDOWN
-61.8%
-61.8%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 4 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (52.6), rising 1m & 3m
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, far below high
ETH Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 3024.43
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1890.26
Low: 1386.80
Now: 1890.26
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 52.6 | ADX (14) | 16.3 |
| 50d MA | 1817.89 | 200d MA | 2029.33 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1803.05 | Resistance | 1976.46 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.68%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| ETH | +0.7% | +13.0% | -8.5% | -37.5% |
| BTC | -2.0% | +0.2% | -5.3% | -28.7% |
| ETH | +0.7% | +13.0% | -8.5% | -37.5% |
| SOL | +0.4% | +14.0% | -5.7% | -42.9% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
19,945
RETURN
+33.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-22.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| ETH | +33.0% | -14.7% | -22.6% | 65 | 48% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (ETH)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -37.5% | 6,234 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -30.0% | 10,500 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -26.6% | 11,009 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -27.2% | 10,926 |
ETH Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1788.84 (-5.4%) |
| Target 1 | 2017.00 (6.7%) |
| Target 2 | 2093.00 (10.7%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-03 | BUY | 1858.26 | |
| 2026-08-04 | SELL | 1868.39 | +0.5% |
| 2026-08-05 | BUY | 1906.53 | |
| 2026-08-06 | SELL | 1902.06 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | 1913.28 | |
| 2026-08-08 | SELL | 1915.53 | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 1908.68 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 1871.28 | -2.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 1881.37 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 1878.13 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 1890.26 | |
| END | SELL | 1890.26 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-13 09:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
HOLD at this range? the 50d just crossed below the 200d on my charts too. death cross forming and they say deploy 15k? bold call tbh
kenji the cross is arriving 62 percent below the 52w high. death crosses that show up after the drawdown are confirmation noise
drawdown_math_ exactly. at 62 percent off the high most of the damage precedes the cross. late signals carry almost no edge. staged entries off a small base is the sane response
Kenji Watanabe death cross at 62% drawdown means the damage already happened. the cross is a lagging indicator confirming what price already told you. deploy slow or not at all
the cross confirming after the damage is exactly why the adx gate matters. without it every death cross becomes a short at the local bottom
the cross confirming after the damage is exactly why the adx gate matters. without it every death cross becomes a short at the local bottom
the cross confirming after the damage is exactly why the adx gate matters. without it every death cross becomes a short at the local bottom
tomas is using ADX as a regime gate though, not just raw MA crossover. if ADX is below 25 the signal gets filtered out. makes sense to wait
^ but ADX lagging is the whole problem. by the time it confirms the regime you are already 8% into the move. seen this movie before lol
thats the point of a lagging gate in chop, you eat slowness instead of whipsaw. deploying 15k at 1890 against a 52w high of 4953 is the aggressive part
15k at 1890 is aggressive until you remember its staged. tranches, not a market buy, thats the part people keep missing
15k at 1890 is aggressive until you remember its staged. tranches, not a market buy, thats the part people keep missing
15k at 1890 is aggressive until you remember its staged. tranches, not a market buy, thats the part people keep missing
0xmonsoon by design though. A lagging gate in chop eats slowness instead of getting shredded by whipsaws. ADX under 25 as the hold trigger is consistent with the whole framework.
staged entries on a hold rating is the sane way to buy a falling knife. anyone who lump summed near 4950 is sitting on a 60 percent loss and zero dry powder
dca_drone_ staged entries off 1890 makes sense if you believe in the 15k deployment target. the question is whether staged means 10% now or 10% over 6 months
tuuli staged means a small tranche at 1890 then ladders lower, the 15k target is the ceiling of the plan, not the opening order. patience is the whole position here
hold at 1890 with the 50d under the 200d and adx gatekeeping the signal. tomas is saying dont catch it and dont short it, just wait. least fun advice, usually correct
cross_guard_ the ADX gate under 25 as a hold trigger is the only sane approach to a death cross in crypto. most algos would short into it and get rekt
cross_guard_ least fun advice usually correct is this entire system in one line. everyone wants a signal, the edge is refusing to trade chop
1890 against a 4953 high and the plan is wait for adx. boring answer but lump summing anywhere near that top is how people ended up 60 pct down with no plan b
1890 against a 4953 high and the plan is wait for adx. boring answer but lump summing anywhere near that top is how people ended up 60 pct down with no plan b
1890 against a 4953 high and the plan is wait for adx. boring answer but lump summing anywhere near that top is how people ended up 60 pct down with no plan b
eth at 1890 under a death cross and half the comments are still asking where to enter. the adx gate exists to protect you from exactly this energy
the adx gate protecting people from themselves is the real product here. 1890 chop under a death cross, refusing the trade IS the trade