Deep Dive Analysis
EURC (EURC)
2026-10-21 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.12
1.12
52W HIGH
1.20
1.20
DRAWDOWN
-6.9%
-6.9%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 3 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, within 10% of high, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.3)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (39.9), falling 1m & 3m, strong bear trend (ADX 51.3)
EURC Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.19
Low: 1.01
Now: 1.12
Low: 1.01
Now: 1.12
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 39.9 | ADX (14) | 51.3 |
| 50d MA | 1.14 | 200d MA | 1.15 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1.11 | Resistance | 1.15 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.43%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| EURC | -1.0% | -3.9% | -3.0% | -5.5% |
| BTC | +1.2% | +22.1% | +33.1% | +27.7% |
| ETH | -7.0% | +10.9% | +50.0% | +28.3% |
| SOL | -8.7% | +26.2% | +61.4% | +37.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
14,829
RETURN
-1.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-4.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| EURC | -1.1% | -0.3% | -4.9% | 58 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (EURC)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -5.5% | 14,495 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -3.3% | 14,506 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -3.7% | 14,445 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -3.3% | 14,504 |
EURC Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.11 (-0.9%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-10.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-10.8%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 1.16 | +0.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 1.16 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 1.16 | +0.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 1.16 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 1.16 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 1.16 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-21 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
EURC at 1.12 against a 52w high of 1.20, so a euro stablecoin drew down 7% versus the dollar and that gets called a Stage 4 downtrend? this is basically just EUR/USD with extra steps
^ exactly. the system is trending an fx pair and printing HIGH conviction on it. if you actually need euro exposure you buy and hold the peg, you dont chart-trade it
the 15k deployment is the funniest part. splitting a euro peg trade into tranches like its a meme coin entry lmao
tranching a peg trade never gets old. next week theyll put a stop loss on a savings account
the stop loss on a savings account joke writes itself, but plenty of people did deploy at 1.20 because the label said stable. boring assets still punish sloppy sizing
a stop loss on a savings account is my new favorite image. half these deep dives are just FX commentary in a trench coat
thats the point tho, the system stays consistent even when the asset is boring. still wouldnt pay spread to trade a peg
3 bull factors vs 7 bear and MACD still positive, so the avoid call is doing a lot of work there. tomas went high conviction on something that moves a few pips a week lol
Disagree on this one. A 6.9% drawdown from 1.20 matters a lot if you deployed near the top, and that is exactly who this analysis is written for. Rules-based exits beat vibes.
fair point but if you deployed near 1.20 on a stablecoin the lesson isnt trend analysis, its reading the label first
3 vs 7 factors is just momentum indicators echoing each other. the conviction dial on this system is basically an rsi wearing a suit
the rsi wearing a suit line is accurate but the system did call SELL and eurc went 1.20 to 1.12, so the dial was right this once. one good call still doesnt make a peg strategy
High conviction on a pair that moves pips is the funny part, but rules beat vibes if you must trade it. I just hold dollars and skip the euro question entirely.
hold dollars and let the ecb print anyway lol. at least the peg trade has rules, my savings account just has a leak
at least the leak is predictable. ecb prints 2% a year, the eurc drawdown was 7% in months. pick your thief carefully lol
the ecb leaks 2% a year and calls it stability. eurc just put the leak on a chart and everyone lost their minds
sold my eurc at 1.16 like a normal person and slept fine. if your stablecoin strategy needs a chart, hold the other stablecoin
still stuck on the 52w high of 1.20 for a euro stablecoin. someone ran the printer harder than lagarde lmao
the 1.20 print was depeg theatre until the arb bots showed up. stage 4 tag plus that -6.9% drawdown line did more honest work than half the exchange risk flags out there
to be fair the 1.20 high was a thin liquidity wick during the march panic, nobody actually deleveraged there. the chart matters less than the redemption mechanics
march wick or not, the report is rated against a 15k portfolio so sloppy fills at 1.18 are a real cost. rules save you from exactly the liquid panic you are hand-waving away
58 trades in two years on a euro stablecoin with a 33% win rate. whoever ran that backtest owes the spread an apology
a 33 percent win rate only works when winners are huge, and peg trades never are. the math of this system is paying tolls forever
the win rate only looks bad because the report counts scratch trades as losses. filter out sub 10 pip moves and its basically a coin flip with carry
58 round trips on a peg in 2 years is one trade every two weeks, not exactly degen churn. the spread math still stings tho