Deep Dive Analysis
Filecoin (FIL)
2026-10-13 15:00 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.15
1.15
52W HIGH
8.38
8.38
DRAWDOWN
-86.3%
-86.3%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (57.6), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 27.8), vol 1.41x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.73)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
FIL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.05
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.15
Low: 0.61
Now: 1.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 57.6 | ADX (14) | 27.8 |
| 50d MA | 0.93 | 200d MA | 0.86 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.77 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 8.71%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FIL | +10.3% | +61.7% | +32.9% | +9.6% |
| BTC | -3.2% | +31.3% | +30.8% | +14.3% |
| ETH | -8.6% | +33.7% | +42.1% | +17.3% |
| SOL | -9.3% | +41.1% | +56.4% | +16.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,769
RETURN
+2.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-29.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FIL | +2.6% | -59.5% | -29.3% | 54 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FIL)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +9.6% | 20,564 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +4.5% | 31,347 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +22.2% | 36,670 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +16.1% | 34,838 |
FIL Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.95 (-17.4%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-13.0%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (74.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 0.94 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.99 | +5.9% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.05 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.14 | +8.4% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.14 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.06 | -6.8% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.06 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.04 | -1.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.03 | +1.4% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.07 | |
| END | SELL | 1.15 | +7.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-13 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
FIL at 1.15 against a 52w high of 8.38 and the call is BUY. brave, but storage demand narrative does keep grinding
deployment plan on a 30k portfolio for a coin down 86 percent from the high. respect the conviction, hope the stops are tight
The stops are staged with the entries, that is the entire point of a deployment plan. 30k gets scaled across tranches with cuts below support, no yoloing involved.
the obv accumulation line is the only part of this i trust tbh. 9 bull factors and macd still negative means the trend is young, entry here is fine if you size it small
obv accumulation plus staged entries is the only version of this trade that makes sense. 30k scaled across tranches is very different from 30k at once
obv accumulation while price sits at 1.15 is the quiet tell. entries staged further down make the 30k survivable
obv works until the next delisting rumor resets it. fil needs a demand catalyst beyond the chart, storage utilization hasnt caught up to the tokenomics
utilization is the whole argument tbh. onboarding grinding up while paid storage stays flat means the demand side is still subsidized. tranche one fine, the rest needs real revenue
paid deals flat while onboarding climbs is the whole bear case in two numbers. bull factors dont pay for storage
brave is one word for it lol. 8.38 down to 1.15 is a full roundtrip, but storage demand doesnt care about entry price. letting the first tranche play out before i touch this
9 bull factors and they still stage the first tranche tiny, that says everything about conviction vs discipline. 1.15 only works as a scale in
down 86 percent is exactly where backtests get noisy, almost no surviving data from the last cycle low. tranche one and watch is the honest read
brave is generous, down 86 with macd still negative. staged tranches is the only sane way to touch this, the obv line helps tho
fil at 1.15 with a whole 30k deployment plan, respect the effort. last time it was this cheap everyone swore storage demand was dead and then onboarding numbers doubled anyway. still not my bag
Filecoin onboarding grinding up while everyone argues the chart. The 30k staged plan is fine, calling it Stage 2 uptrend before macd confirms is the only stretch
scaling into something 86 off the highs is fine but the plan needs a kill line. if the 52w low goes, tranches just turn into a slower way to lose the 30k
the kill line point is underrated. staged entries without an invalidation level is just averaging down with a spreadsheet, 52w low has to be the line
52w low as the kill line is clean. no invalidation number turns a 30k deployment into 30k hope
52w low as the kill line is what makes the 30k survivable. most deployment plans posted publicly forget the exit half entirely, this one at least wrote it down
down 86 percent means the backtest only has data from one regime. every fil dip buyer since 8.38 thought storage demand would save them too. scaled or nothing
RSI 57.6 and ADX 27.8 is textbook early trend, but macd still red says momentum hasnt confirmed. tiny first tranche and let the 50d prove itself imo
this. adx 27.8 with macd still red is a maybe-trend at best. first tranche tiny and let the 50d settle the argument
same read. last cycle the base formed about 3 weeks before macd flipped green and the move was 40% in a month. tranche one and patience costs almost nothing
9 bull factors and macd still red is the honest tension in this whole plan. a small first tranche at 1.15 is fine, conviction beyond that needs the paid storage line to bend
the paid storage line bending is the whole thesis tho. onboarding climbing while paid deals stay flat means someone is subsidizing the demand side. tranche one at 1.15 and nothing more until that flips