Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-10 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-83.5%
-83.5%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 2 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 38.7)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, MACD-, RSI weak (44.4), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.62)
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.4 | ADX (14) | 38.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.99%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | -9.3% | -4.4% | -16.5% | -42.0% |
| BTC | +5.9% | +22.4% | -1.7% | -14.0% |
| ETH | +5.0% | +40.0% | +5.4% | -21.9% |
| SOL | +14.2% | +28.3% | +18.8% | -24.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
10,710
RETURN
-28.6%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.4%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -28.6% | -52.0% | -31.4% | 45 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -42.0% | 4,182 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -41.8% | 8,734 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -39.0% | 9,149 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -34.2% | 9,868 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-10.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-01 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.6% |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.4% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.1% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-10 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
SELL call at 0.01 when the 52w high is 0.04 is bold. most analysts wait for a bounce before dunking on it lol
the timing question is fair but the FAssets volume line in the piece is basically flat. with no catalyst on the table, late sell calls still beat early buy calls on this one
Down 75% from the high and Novak still says deploy into a sell thesis. Honestly respect the conviction even if I disagree
@Rui i held FLR through the whole drawdown from 0.04. this article is just salt in the wound at this point
SELL at these levels feels late tbh, flare bled from the 0.04 high all year. what actually flips the thesis bullish
FAssets volume is the only real catalyst. Until that shows up the sell rating is fair.
15k portfolio breakdown on a coin trading at a cent. the decimals alone make my eyes water