Deep Dive Analysis
Gram (prev. Toncoin) (GRAM)
2026-09-12 17:00 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.38
1.38
52W HIGH
1.84
1.84
DRAWDOWN
-24.9%
-24.9%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, falling 1m & 3m
GRAM Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.38
Low: 0.00
Now: 1.38
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.2 | ADX (14) | 13.6 |
| 50d MA | 1.39 | 200d MA | 0.69 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.30 | Resistance | 1.56 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.84%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| GRAM | -4.4% | -16.2% | +89403.9% | +44870.8% |
| BTC | +0.4% | +21.3% | -3.0% | -15.3% |
| ETH | +4.7% | +42.0% | +8.2% | -19.1% |
| SOL | +8.6% | +32.7% | +21.3% | -23.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
2,292
RETURN
-77.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-77.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| GRAM | -77.1% | +28082.6% | -77.5% | 37 | 22% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (GRAM)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +44870.8% | 3,834,461 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +34512.2% | 3,461,222 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +48035.2% | 4,813,516 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +49345.9% | 4,944,591 |
GRAM Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.27 (-7.7%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (45.0%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (45.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -2.9% |
| 2026-01-20 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-01-21 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-17 | SELL | 0.00 | -18.7% |
| 2026-04-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-04-26 | SELL | 0.00 | -27.4% |
| 2026-04-30 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-05-01 | SELL | 0.00 | -7.1% |
| 2026-06-30 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-07-27 | SELL | 1.46 | -3.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-12 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
1.38 against a 1.84 high and the call is HOLD. feels like dead money until it reclaims 1.60 tbh
the hold call makes sense if you read the deployment plan, entries staggered under 1.30. not every analysis is a moon call
backtest turned 10k into 2,292 and the verdict is HOLD with a shrug emoji. brutal honesty from the engine tbh
Right, and the 1Y column shows +44,870% which makes the -77% backtest even funnier. Same coin, two realities.
two realities is right, depends entirely whether you bought the panic low or rode it down. entry price is the whole trade on renamed coins
+44,870 on the 1Y and the backtest window still shows -77 for late buyers. two realities is right, entry price decides which one you live in
10k to 2,292 and it still printed HOLD lmao. honesty is appreciated but maybe the engine should apologize too
lmao apologize. a -77% backtest printing HOLD is more useful than every moon thread that pretended toncoin at 5 was normal
lmao the engine turning 10k into 2,292 and then shrugging is the most honest thing published today. at least the DCA table gives you a way in under 1.30
entries under 1.30 on a coin that already printed minus 77 on the backtest is a bold strategy. the museum chart comment above was mean but fair
minus 77 on the backtest and they still print HOLD with entries under 1.30. the bar for a HOLD badge is basically on the floor now
bold yes but the DCA table spreads it across five tranches, its not one lump at 1.29. that part people keep skipping
the five tranche split is the only sane part of this whole plan. even if 1.29 fails you still got dry powder instead of a full bag at the retest
the five tranches are the only reason HOLD is defensible tbh. spread under 1.30 beats one lump at 1.38, thats just basic risk math
an apology plus a -77 percent backtest would still be more disclosure than the team gave when they renamed the thing lol
an apology from the engine lmao, id actually read it. more accountability than most teams offer after a -77 print
renamed from toncoin to gram and im still holding from way higher. one day this chart pays me back lol
renames never fix charts. gram at 1.38 needs the 1.60 reclaim or this stays a bagholder support group with a new logo
the 1.60 reclaim talk assumes anyone is still watching. volume on GRAM dried up after the rename, the chart is basically a museum now
museum chart is harsh but the volume argument holds. averaged in under 1.30 myself and even that feels like patience training at this point
renamed my bag from toncoin to gram and the chart refuses to acknowledge either name. 1.60 feels like folklore at this point
toncoin to gram rebrand and the backtest still reads like a horror story. 1.38 needs to reclaim 1.60 before i even open the chart again
10k to 2,292 on the backtest and the engine still leaves the door open at 1.31 entries. respect the honesty, still not catching this knife tho
renamed coin, dead volume, minus 77 backtest. this is a HOLD for people who cant click the sell button lmao
renamed the coin, kept the minus 77 backtest, printed HOLD. not sure what the 1.60 reclaim crowd is anchoring to at this point