Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-08-09 19:12 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.07
0.07
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-82.7%
-82.7%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 2 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: MACD+, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.23)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, far below high
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.13
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.07
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 48.7 | ADX (14) | 11.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.07 | Resistance | 0.07 |
| ATR Volatility | 2.89%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | +4.2% | -15.3% | -20.9% | -48.0% |
| BTC | +0.7% | +3.0% | -4.5% | -24.5% |
| ETH | +2.6% | +13.9% | -8.8% | -31.4% |
| SOL | +1.1% | +16.4% | -7.2% | -39.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,824
RETURN
+5.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +5.5% | -64.9% | -31.5% | 31 | 36% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -48.0% | 4,006 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -46.8% | 7,984 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -41.9% | 8,717 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -40.0% | 8,998 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-5.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 0.09 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.3% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 0.09 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-05-29 | SELL | 0.10 | +9.3% |
| 2026-05-30 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-31 | SELL | 0.10 | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.09 | -5.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-09 19:12 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a sell call at 0.28 when its already down 30% from the 0.40 high. brilliant analysis, very helpful
bought at 0.28 thinking the enterprise adoption narrative was real. down 75% and now some algo says avoid lol thanks guys
the 50d/200d death cross already happened weeks ago though, this call feels late imo
^ exactly, by the time these trend-following models scream SELL the move is mostly done. been holding hbar since 0.19 and not selling here
82.7% drawdown and they still flag it as avoid? at some point the risk/reward flips but sure lets keep selling the bottom
^ the 50d/200d MA system has been short HBAR since it crossed below 0.12. trend following doesnt care about your risk reward thesis
5 bearish factors vs 2 bullish and you guys are still arguing bullish. the OBV accumulation means nothing if price keeps making lower highs