Deep Dive Analysis
Hedera (HBAR)
2026-08-26 08:31 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.08
0.08
52W HIGH
0.40
0.40
DRAWDOWN
-80.6%
-80.6%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 6 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (65.2), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 35.5)
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, far below high, vol 1.27x on down day
HBAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.10
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.08
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 65.2 | ADX (14) | 35.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.07 | 200d MA | 0.08 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.06 | Resistance | 0.09 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.21%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| HBAR | +12.6% | +3.0% | -14.4% | -25.9% |
| BTC | +22.2% | +29.4% | +2.3% | -7.6% |
| ETH | +29.1% | +51.9% | +1.6% | -13.0% |
| SOL | +31.2% | +42.7% | +9.2% | -18.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
38,878
RETURN
+11.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-31.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| HBAR | +11.1% | -59.5% | -31.5% | 35 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (HBAR)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -25.9% | 11,461 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -36.9% | 22,100 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -30.8% | 24,222 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -28.6% | 24,975 |
HBAR Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.07 (-11.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.14) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-30 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| 2026-05-31 | SELL | 0.10 | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-01 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-06-02 | SELL | 0.09 | -5.7% |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 0.07 | |
| 2026-08-20 | SELL | 0.07 | +4.1% |
| 2026-08-22 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 0.08 | +3.0% |
| 2026-08-24 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| 2026-08-25 | SELL | 0.08 | -1.8% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.08 | |
| END | SELL | 0.08 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-26 08:31 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
hbar up 12% in a month and the verdict is still wait. an 80% drawdown does that to a system i guess
above the 50d but below the 200d, thats a no mans land chart. hold is right until 0.09 breaks
No man’s land is generous, it has been chopping 0.07 to 0.09 since spring. If the 200d keeps flattening above us the hold verdict writes itself
80% drawdown survivors are either patient or asleep, hbar holders are both lol. if 0.09 clears the 200d comes into play fast
^ and when 0.09 does clear the 200d is basically sitting right there. one clean weekly close above and this hold call ages badly
the 200d point is the real test. one clean weekly close above 0.09 with volume behind it and even I stop complaining about the council of 39
a weekly close above 0.09 is doable but the 200d is stacked right behind it. two ceilings in a row, this needs real volume not council press releases
0.09 with the 200d stacked right behind it is exactly why im not pre paying for this breakout. first weekly close above the whole cluster is the only signal worth acting on
0.09 and the 200d stacked together actually simplifies it, one weekly close above both and the four rejections are just the base. volume first tho
council of 39 gigacorps and the chart still ranges. the 0.09 breakout better come with actual usage numbers or this hold call is just patience theater
the council of 39 point is underrated. council logos carried this from 0.03 to 0.08, only actual tps numbers get it through 0.09
tps is the only chart that matters past 0.09. the 39 council logos pay for the range, actual usage numbers pay for the breakout
tps dashboards or nothing is right. hedera prints a council announcement every quarter and the usage chart barely twitches. hold till 0.09 proves otherwise
That is exactly it. Council logos pay for the range, and until mainnet activity shows up in public dashboards the breakout thesis has no fuel.
tps on hedera actually held up better than the price did. the token value capture is the broken part. but yeah, dashboards over council logos
patience theater is the perfect name for it. four rejections at 0.09 and the council names stopped moving the needle sometime in 2025
four rejections and the fifth attempt comes with the 200d right behind it. even if it clears, the council sells into volume, thats the hbar way
patience theater lol. council of 39 and usage still flat, the hold rating is a polite way of saying nothing changed
resistance at 0.09 has rejected this thing what, four times now. not touching it till that clears
Stage 3 topping at 0.08 while ADX reads 35.5 strong bull trend, those two signals arguing with each other is the whole hbar story tbh
a stage 3 label with ADX reading 35 strong bull is just the system lagging the tape, same way it lagged on the way down at 0.03
usage dashboards or nothing. council press releases stopped moving this chart a year ago and everyone knows it
stuck at 0.08 midrange with ADX 35 going nowhere fast. oliver schmidt calling it no mans land is exactly what holding this feels like
35k portfolio verdict HOLD after an 80% drawdown, bold analysis lol. anyone holding since 0.40 is immune to new information anyway
35k portfolio and every coin gets a verdict, thats the product. the hold after an 80 percent drawdown is just honesty about not having a better idea