Deep Dive Analysis
JUST (JST)
2026-09-15 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.12
0.12
52W HIGH
0.12
0.12
DRAWDOWN
-0.4%
-0.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 9 Bull / 0 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (67.0), rising 1m & 3m, near 52w high, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.81)
JST Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.04
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.12
Low: 0.03
Now: 0.12
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 67.0 | ADX (14) | 16.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.10 | 200d MA | 0.09 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.09 | Resistance | 0.12 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.21%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JST | +16.2% | +15.4% | +34.3% | +169.5% |
| BTC | -3.4% | +16.9% | -5.1% | -16.9% |
| ETH | -1.4% | +27.5% | +5.2% | -23.9% |
| SOL | +2.4% | +27.2% | +11.9% | -27.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
66,418
RETURN
+89.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-37.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JST | +89.8% | +268.9% | -37.5% | 49 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JST)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +169.5% | 122,477 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +146.1% | 86,142 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +134.2% | 81,977 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +130.5% | 80,671 |
JST Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.10 (-10.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.95) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-01-21 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-01-27 | SELL | 0.04 | -9.8% |
| 2026-01-28 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-02-03 | SELL | 0.04 | -8.5% |
| 2026-02-07 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-02-12 | SELL | 0.04 | -3.2% |
| 2026-02-16 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-06-03 | SELL | 0.07 | +71.7% |
| 2026-06-28 | BUY | 0.09 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.10 | +13.9% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 0.10 | |
| END | SELL | 0.12 | +12.5% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-15 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
+169% on the year while btc is down 17 and they still call it WAIT. system says no clear edge but 9 bull factors 0 bear lol make it make sense
The reason is right there in the table. Price is sitting exactly on resistance at 0.12 with RSI 67. Strong momentum, bad entry point. That is a hold, not a buy.
RSI 67 sitting on the 0.12 resistance is the textbook no-edge zone though. the model isnt confused, it just refuses to pay for exhaustion
0.12 with RSI 67 is exactly where stop hunts go shopping. id rather miss 8 percent of upside than fund the wick
agree on refusing to pay for exhaustion but ADX 16.5 cuts the other way too, no trend strength means the pullback could be just as choppy as the grind up. quarter size hold and let the log entry decide
the WAIT is because every factor is momentum lagging. system sees the run already happened, no edge left to capture
momentum lags until it doesnt. one clean close above 0.12 and this same model flips to buy at worse prices, thats the trend following tax
trend systems price in the entry not the backstory. +169% already happened, the model only asks if the next leg pays
ADX 16.5 is the part nobody mentions. trend strength is basically flat, all those bull factors are just the aftermath of one big run up
ran this same 50d/200d backtest logic on JST in 2023, got chopped to death on the fakeouts. RSI filter helps but 3.2% daily volatility will test you
adx this low after a 169% run usually means distribution not continuation. hold and trail a stop feels right
adx low after a grind up can also mean the move just paused, not distributed. watch whether the hold tag flips on the next tranche date imo
35k on a hold signal is bold sizing. id size a HOLD at half a BUY, the whole point is no edge
half sizing on a hold is honestly the most sensible take in this thread. full size on a no-edge signal is how 35k becomes 4k
ran half size holds on my own system for a year, gave up maybe 8% upside and skipped two full drawdowns. gemma has the right of it here
half sizing holds is the move. my backtest gave up 9% upside on JST tags like this and skipped the entire last flush
HOLD at the 52 week high is a bold call. most analysis pieces would say take profits around 0.12 and rebuy later
the log entry system sells on trend breaks, not price targets. 0.12 round numbers are retail brain, the model exits on the signal
fair point but tron stuff has a habit of grinding higher once it gets going. held JST through worse
35k on a HOLD verdict is wild to me. i run the same system at quarter size on hold tags and it saves me every chop
same, i run hold tags at quarter size and it has saved my year twice. parking the full 35k behind a verdict that basically says no edge is just hope with extra steps
curious how the 35k gets split across entries. the piece mentions a deployment plan but no tranche sizes or intervals
7k a clip over five entries matches their standard hold template if you read the last three pieces. not exactly a state secret
the earlier JST piece used 5 equal tranches on a 5 day interval, assume same template here. 7k a clip on the 35k book
she asked about tranche sizes a while ago and nobody answered lol. anyway RSI 67 at resistance is exactly why im not paying up here either
HOLD at the 52w high with RSI 67 is a polite way of saying wait for the pullback. the 35k can wait on chain
whole plan lives or dies on 0.12 holding. one clean flush below that zone and every tranche you stacked turns into a bag before the model even updates
thats the flaw in tranche plans, the model updates slower than the flush. by the time the tag flips you are already through 0.09