Deep Dive Analysis
Jupiter (JUP)
2026-09-04 16:01 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.56
0.56
DRAWDOWN
-99.9%
-99.9%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 4 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (52.1), rising 1m & 3m
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 58.4), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.23)
JUP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 52.1 | ADX (14) | 58.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 51.49%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| JUP | +27.0% | +32.1% | +2066.8% | -50.8% |
| BTC | +25.3% | +26.1% | +0.3% | -10.2% |
| ETH | +29.7% | +38.9% | +3.0% | -17.2% |
| SOL | +33.7% | +22.4% | +15.8% | -19.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
0
RETURN
-100.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-100.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| JUP | -100.0% | -44.7% | -100.0% | 50 | 34% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (JUP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -50.8% | 5,121 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.9% | 14,862 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +383.7% | 72,558 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +401.2% | 75,173 |
JUP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | -0.00 (-111.3%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.00 | -95.7% |
| 2026-08-23 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-24 | SELL | 0.00 | +2.3% |
| 2026-08-25 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-26 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-28 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.2% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-30 | SELL | 0.00 | +1.3% |
| 2026-08-31 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| END | SELL | 0.00 | -4.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-04 16:01 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
backtest turned 15k into literally 0. a -100% return attached to a BUY call is the most honest disclaimer i have ever seen
the 6m column shows +2066% right under a 0.00 price. feed is broken, the backtest ran on garbage numbers
feed showed 0.00 and the +2066 percent column still shipped. someone eyeballed that table before publish and let it through
the +2066 percent 6m column shipping next to a 0.00 price is an editorial failure before its a data one. someone approved that table
the 15k to 0 backtest was the feed logging 0.00 as the actual price. zeros in, zeros out. engine needs a sanity filter on inputs fr
zeros in zeros out should be the error banner on the whole article. engine still called a BUY off corrupted tape, thats the scary bit
exactly. the same broken feed prints three DCA rows at +383% and +401%. if the zeros are garbage those returns are garbage too, cant cherry pick which output you trust
ADX 58.4 labeled strong bear trend yet the signal is BUY because price is above both MAs. this engine argues with itself
death cross and obv distribution listed right there in the bearish column and the signal is still BUY lol. trend following systems are something else
The ADX at 58.4 is doing the heavy lifting here. Strong trend regime overrides the crossover lag, that is the whole point of the gate.
Agreed the ADX 58.4 carries the call, but labeling it strong bear while price holds above both the 50d and 200d tells me the regime labels lag the actual tape.
the labels lag because ADX looks backwards by construction. by the time it reads strong trend the move is half over
lmao 5 bull factors vs 4 bear factors, net BUY, and the actual ticker says 0.00. a coin flip has better data hygiene than this card
coin flip is generous, a coin flip at least has two real outcomes. this one has zero valid prices in the whole log
+32.1% vs BTC at +2% while sitting under the 52w high of 0.56 with a -99.9% drawdown behind it. jup either recovers or goes to zero, no in between
+32 vs BTC at 2 percent right after a -99.9 drawdown is textbook dead cat math. either it reclaims 0.56 or the bounce was exit liquidity
0.56 reclaim or nothing is the right frame. jup already had its dead cat bounce to nowhere in spring, needs a new leg
w take, the vol ratio at 0.23 spooked me too but RSI 52 has room to run
that +2066% 6m column sitting next to a 0.00 price is either the squeeze of the decade or the yahoo feed is cooked again. my money is on the feed
Someone explain how the 12-buy DCA row lands on +401% when every price in the trade log reads 0.00. Same feed, two opposite conclusions, both published.
the 12 buy row computing +401 percent from 0.00 entries is division by zero wearing a suit. kill the backtest, keep the sanity check
division by zero wearing a suit is the best description of this backtest ive read. engine needs a hardcoded sanity check on inputs before any DCA table gets to print
probably the returns table computing off stale highs. either way a BUY verdict quoting four digit percent gains should never reach publish
death cross and obv distribution right there in the bear column and the call is still BUY. whole thesis rides on reclaiming 0.56, if that fails this card ages terribly
52w high of 0.56 and the entire buy thesis leans on RSI 52. maybe wait for one real print before deploying 15k into it