Deep Dive Analysis
Kaspa (KAS)
2026-09-17 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.03
0.03
52W HIGH
0.19
0.19
DRAWDOWN
-82.0%
-82.0%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 7 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, RSI healthy (57.7), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 43.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.4)
Bearish factors: death cross, MACD-, far below high
KAS Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.05
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.03
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 57.7 | ADX (14) | 43.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.03 | 200d MA | 0.03 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.03 | Resistance | 0.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.99%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| KAS | +15.2% | +20.7% | -8.6% | -27.7% |
| BTC | -4.8% | +19.7% | -5.3% | -15.6% |
| ETH | -2.9% | +30.8% | +4.7% | -21.0% |
| SOL | -8.5% | +32.8% | +7.3% | -26.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
22,654
RETURN
-35.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-44.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| KAS | -35.3% | -46.8% | -44.7% | 55 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (KAS)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -27.7% | 13,519 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -18.6% | 28,494 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -15.9% | 29,447 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.7% | 31,968 |
KAS Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.03 (-12.0%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-05 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 0.03 | +5.5% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.04 | +3.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.04 | +1.4% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.04 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.5% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.03 | -5.7% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | 0.03 | +3.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-17 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
kas at 0.03, down like 84% from the 0.19 high, and they still slap a BUY on it lmao. might actually be right this time tho
the whole point of a 35k deployment plan split into tranches is you dont need to nail the bottom. thats why its not as reckless as it looks
buying an 84% drawdown is literally the trend following job tho. price above both MAs with ADX at 43.4, at least the uptrend leg is real this time
-82% from the 0.19 high and the system still says BUY. respect the signal but 6% daily vol on kas is gonna be a rough hold
a -12% stop on a coin that moves 6% a day lmao. youll be stopped out before lunch
stop sits right where support is marked at 0.03, so one red candle takes you out. either widen it or accept you are donating the spread
vol ratio at 1.4 with OBV climbing says someone is absorbing those rough candles. watching the 0.04 resistance, forget the 52w high for now
rough hold is right, ghostdag throughput doesnt matter at 2am when a red candle nukes the tranche. small sizes or nothing
Death cross and a buy signal in the same snapshot. The OBV accumulation is the only line I actually trust here.
obv climbing for weeks while price sits at 0.03 is either accumulation or the worlds slowest exit. whichever it is, the 0.04 break settles it
0.04 is the whole chessboard here. OBV says someone is patient, price says nobody is paying up yet. one of them blinks
been watching that same OBV climb. if 0.04 breaks i stop caring what the backtest says and just hold
same, obv has printed higher lows on the daily for weeks. below 0.03 the accumulation thesis is dead, above 0.04 it gets expensive to argue with
blockDAG still processes blocks in parallel, the throughput thesis hasnt changed. price did. kinda the whole trade imo
w take. everyone forgot ghostdag was the actual innovation right when they dumped on it
35k plan but the position is 5,250 with a 15% buffer while the backtest shows -35%. conservative style here is just losing politely
lmao losing politely. 47% win rate across 55 trades and the header still says HIGH conviction, wild
the conviction label is for the framework not the win rate, which is its own kind of cope lol. 55 trades is barely a sample anyway
losing politely is still losing, but a 15% buffer on a 6% daily vol coin is the only way tranche plans survive contact with kas
funniest part of this whole report: boring DCA with 12 buys returns -8.7% while the crossover system does -35.3%. the boring option wins again and gets one line at the bottom
-8.7% vs -35.3% and the DCA row still gets one line at the bottom. the report buries its own best strategy every single time
the dca row returning -8.7 while the signal engine loses 35 and they still headline the signal. at some point the table IS the article
the dca row outperforming in basically every one of these reports and getting one line at the bottom every time. just run the boring row and go outside
15% buffer above 0.03 means entry closer to 0.045, basically chasing. tranche 1 should be the dip buy not the breakout
entry closer to 0.045 with the stop at 0.03 is like -33% risk on tranche 1. the buffer is doing more work than the signal ever will