Deep Dive Analysis
Maker (MKR)
2026-08-11 08:30 UTC · Marcus Reid · 30,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1312.26
1312.26
52W HIGH
2413.21
2413.21
DRAWDOWN
-45.6%
-45.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 10 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: strong bull trend (ADX 26.3)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD bear cross, RSI weak (44.7), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.45x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.57)
MKR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1769.00
Low: 837.03
Now: 1312.26
Low: 837.03
Now: 1312.26
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.7 | ADX (14) | 26.3 |
| 50d MA | 1414.47 | 200d MA | 1601.41 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 1229.76 | Resistance | 1707.29 |
| ATR Volatility | 16.98%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| MKR | -10.1% | -6.1% | -25.0% | -25.8% |
| BTC | -3.8% | +3.8% | -4.3% | -31.6% |
| ETH | -2.8% | +14.5% | -8.8% | -41.3% |
| SOL | -3.1% | +16.5% | -4.1% | -47.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 30,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
9,988
RETURN
-66.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-72.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| MKR | -66.7% | -24.2% | -72.3% | 78 | 45% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (MKR)
If you had deployed 30,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -25.8% | 19,637 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -26.6% | 22,020 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -23.7% | 22,879 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -21.3% | 23,609 |
MKR Deployment Plan — 30,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Marcus Reid (Long-term HODLer). If you’re managing a 30,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 4,500 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 866.57 (-34.0%) |
| Target 1 | 1981.00 (51.0%) |
| Target 2 | 2427.00 (84.9%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 8 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Long-term HODLer.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-09 | BUY | 1843.95 | |
| 2026-05-11 | SELL | 1768.91 | -4.1% |
| 2026-07-25 | BUY | 1457.35 | |
| 2026-07-26 | SELL | 1479.65 | +1.5% |
| 2026-07-29 | BUY | 1480.54 | |
| 2026-07-30 | SELL | 1500.94 | +1.4% |
| 2026-07-31 | BUY | 1439.28 | |
| 2026-08-01 | SELL | 1436.97 | -0.2% |
| 2026-08-02 | BUY | 1585.18 | |
| 2026-08-03 | SELL | 1300.85 | -17.9% |
| 2026-08-07 | BUY | 1505.20 | |
| 2026-08-08 | SELL | 1539.24 | +2.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-11 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
1 bull factor against 10 bear factors and they still called it high conviction. some things never change
1 bull factor vs 10 bear is the clearest signal you can get. even Endgame upgrade couldnt flip the structure
ADX at 26.3 means the downtrend has real conviction. anyone buying MKR here is fighting a strong trend with no catalyst
^ 1 bull factor vs 10 bear and they still called it high conviction. system worked this time but man thats a lot of bear signals
MKR below both 50d and 200d MA with ADX 26 says the downtrend has real teeth. anyone buying here is catching a falling knife
falling knife until it isnt. bought MKR at 1200 in the 2022 crash and it ran to 2400. not saying bottom is here but ADX 26 aint exactly 40
selva_short comparing this to 2022 bottom is wild. that was 1200 with bullish macro tailwinds. we have BTC down 27% YTD and tightening regulation now
MKR at 1312 with ADX showing 26.3 strength but the trend is DOWN. strong trend just means strong pain if you fight it
the 52w high at 2413 feels like a lifetime ago. held since 1800s, watching Stage 4 play out in real time is rough
held from 1800s too, sold at 1700 last week. Stage 4 breakdowns dont just bounce without a volume catalyst
45% drawdown is actually mild for MKR compared to 2022. waited 18 months for it to go from 600 to 2400 and back lol
MKR backtest showing -50% and the system still called it high conviction. brutal honesty at least
the backtest going back to 2022 is the part nobody is talking about. system caught the full meltdown from 2400 to 800 and is still saying sell at 1312. trend following works until the exact bottom and you eat the gap
MKR at 1312 with 10 bear factors and the only bull is ADX 26 which just means the downtrend is strong. how is this not a SELL already