Deep Dive Analysis
Pump.fun (PUMP)
2026-10-24 17:00 UTC · Aisha Okonkwo · 10,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.01
0.01
DRAWDOWN
-35.4%
-35.4%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 2 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (41.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.59)
PUMP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 41.0 | ADX (14) | 16.1 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 6.38%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PUMP | -33.2% | -15.7% | +168.9% | +90.1% |
| BTC | -5.5% | +3.9% | +20.8% | +16.5% |
| ETH | -13.0% | -3.5% | +30.3% | +19.0% |
| SOL | -16.2% | +6.8% | +35.6% | +16.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 10,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
20,327
RETURN
+103.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-34.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PUMP | +103.3% | +112.7% | -34.8% | 16 | 62% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PUMP)
If you had deployed 10,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +90.1% | 21,273 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +103.1% | 20,312 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +87.5% | 18,752 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +89.0% | 18,904 |
PUMP Deployment Plan — 10,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Aisha Okonkwo (Yield / Staking Focused). If you’re managing a 10,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 2,500 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-12.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Yield / Staking Focused.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +11.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +5.6% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +74.9% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-16 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-24 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
7 bear factors against 2 bull and my timeline is still full of entry calls. RSI at 41 is not even oversold, this can just drift for weeks. The 10k plan waiting on Stage 2 is the right structure here
2 bull vs 7 bear factors and RSI at 41, HOLD is the only sane call here. OBV distribution with a 0.59 vol ratio means the bounce attempts have no real buyers behind them. Waiting for the 50d to flatten before I even think about entries.
OBV has distributed all month and RSI at 41 only feels like a discount because its been bleeding for weeks. some charts just want you to wait
this is the answer honestly. RSI 41 isnt even a discount, its just there. waiting costs nothing when ADX sits at 16
-35.4% off the high and the system still calls it bottoming, Stage 1 checks out but man it stings. 200d holding is nice, MACD negative with 1m and 3m both falling though, weak floor. I dipped a tiny amount. Tiny.
agreed on the tiny dip Silje, I put in maybe 5% of my deploy cash just to feel something. Reclaim the 50d and I add, lose the 200d and I am gone no questions asked.
same plan as boatdrift but the 0.59 vol ratio scares me more than the averages do. no real buyers means any 50d reclaim is a fakeout first, seen it a hundred times on PUMP
same lines as you, 50d or nothing. tho with a 0.59 vol ratio id take half profit on the first reclaim close, these weak volume bounces rarely hold
half profit on the first reclaim is patient af for a 0.59 vol ratio. id say even that is generous with 7 bear factors stacked, stage 1 bottoms chew sideways not up
tiny is the right size at -35.4% with OBV still distributing. ill get interested when the 3m MACD stops falling, until then the 10k plan stays on the shelf next to Stage 2