Deep Dive Analysis
Pump.fun (PUMP)
2026-10-30 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.01
0.01
DRAWDOWN
-38.5%
-38.5%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 6 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (40.8), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, vol 1.63x on down day
PUMP Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.8 | ADX (14) | 15.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.83%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PUMP | -25.9% | -12.6% | +176.2% | +91.4% |
| BTC | -6.2% | -0.5% | +22.4% | +13.9% |
| ETH | -10.6% | -9.0% | +30.4% | +12.6% |
| SOL | -13.3% | -9.1% | +30.7% | +11.0% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
30,490
RETURN
+103.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-34.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PUMP | +103.3% | +136.3% | -34.8% | 16 | 62% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PUMP)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +91.4% | 35,438 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +95.2% | 29,280 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +87.4% | 28,115 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +82.6% | 27,397 |
PUMP Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-11.8%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | 0.00 | +11.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | 0.00 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 0.00 | +5.6% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +74.9% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-16 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | 0.00 | -6.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-30 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Backtest says +103% on the crossover system but buy and hold did +136% on the same window. Kind of proves the point of the WAIT tag, why pay for 16 trades of churn to underperform holding.
Disagree, the point of the RSI filter is exactly to skip the chop. 62% win rate across 16 trades with a 25% cash buffer is a sane way to hold something that still shows +176% over 6 months.
16 trades over 6 months is barely churn. id take that for a 25% cash buffer while sitting through a -34.8% max drawdown
That Aug 15 to Aug 23 leg is doing all the work, +74.9% in a week while the rest of the trade log basically scratches. One trade carrying a whole backtest is not a system I would deploy 3,750 on.
DCA table is the interesting bit. 4 buys at +95.2% beats lump sum at +91.4%, but every DCA variant after that decays. Splitting the entry in two tranches like the plan says looks right for Stage 1.
every trend system has one leg doing most of the work, thats where the tails live. the aug 15 to 23 run paying for nine chop months while the rsi filter keeps you out of the rest is the whole pitch, not a bug
One Aug leg carrying the log is literally how a trend system is supposed to eat. You sit through nine chop months with the RSI filter skipping entries, then the one leg that runs pays for all of it. Deploying 3,750 across that instead of lump sum at a -34.8% drawdown seems like the adult version.
the backtest did +103% and buy and hold still beat it at +136%. kind of proves the whole HOLD call here, why overtrade this one
Would gently push back. A -34.8% max drawdown versus sitting through one is not the same experience. Most people holding PUMP since the 52w high at 0.01 are down badly.
-25.9% in a month but +176% over six months. This is why I stopped looking at the 1 month chart, it only tells you about the tourists.
rsi at 40.8 with 1.63x volume on a down day is the detail that keeps me out. someone is distributing, not bottoming
rsi at 40.8 after a -25.9% month could just be cooldown after the aug leg. id want a second high volume red day before calling it distribution
or its just aug buyers taking profit into strength. one 1.63x volume red day after +176% in six months is data, not a trend. id need a second and third before calling distribution
hold with stage 1 split into two tranches feels right. the dca table decaying after the 4 buy row kinda settles it