This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Pump.fun (PUMP)
USD 0.003800
USD 0.006500
-41.5%
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.34)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, RSI weak (40.0), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
Low: USD 0.001200
Now: USD 0.003800
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.0 | ADX (14) | 15.3 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.004800 | 200d MA | USD 0.002900 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | USD 0.003800 | Resistance | USD 0.005600 |
| ATR Volatility | 5.32%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| PUMP | -11.7% | -0.2% | +155.3% | +99.3% |
| BTC | -6.6% | -4.8% | +26.3% | +15.6% |
| ETH | -6.5% | -9.6% | +39.3% | +15.7% |
| SOL | -12.9% | -12.8% | +20.1% | +7.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 10,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| PUMP | +103.3% | +113.3% | -34.8% | 16 | 62% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (PUMP)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 10,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +99.3% | USD 21,326 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +69.9% | USD 16,990 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +64.0% | USD 16,404 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +61.2% | USD 16,118 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify PUMP. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.003800 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.005600 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.003392 (-10.7% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.000204 (5.32%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-09 | BUY | USD 0.002400 | |
| 2026-08-10 | SELL | USD 0.002700 | +11.1% |
| 2026-08-11 | BUY | USD 0.002800 | |
| 2026-08-12 | SELL | USD 0.002700 | -1.9% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | USD 0.002800 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | USD 0.002900 | +5.6% |
| 2026-08-15 | BUY | USD 0.002800 | |
| 2026-08-23 | SELL | USD 0.005000 | +74.9% |
| 2026-08-26 | BUY | USD 0.004500 | |
| 2026-10-16 | SELL | USD 0.004500 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-21 | BUY | USD 0.004900 | |
| 2026-10-23 | SELL | USD 0.004500 | -6.3% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
-41.5% off the high and they still call it Stage 1 bottoming. got a whole bag of these so called bottoms from last year lol
The accumulation signal is what stands out. OBV climbing with a 1.34 volume ratio while price sits under the 50d is usually smart money, not retail.