Deep Dive Analysis
Quant (QNT)
2026-10-30 10:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
193.72
193.72
52W HIGH
357.00
357.00
DRAWDOWN
-45.7%
-45.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, vol 1.38x on up day
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.58)
QNT Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 66.19
Low: 54.01
Now: 193.72
Low: 54.01
Now: 193.72
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 49.7 | ADX (14) | 22.9 |
| 50d MA | 174.79 | 200d MA | 94.23 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 174.00 | Resistance | 304.33 |
| ATR Volatility | 10.62%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| QNT | -22.0% | +217.0% | +176.4% | +192.7% |
| BTC | -6.0% | -0.3% | +22.7% | +14.1% |
| ETH | -10.6% | -9.0% | +30.4% | +12.6% |
| SOL | -11.4% | -7.1% | +33.6% | +13.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
5,794
RETURN
-51.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.1%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| QNT | -51.7% | +99.4% | -59.1% | 58 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (QNT)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +192.7% | 29,077 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +180.7% | 33,680 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +184.5% | 34,146 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +163.4% | 31,605 |
QNT Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 152.56 (-21.2%) |
| Target 1 | 245.00 (26.5%) |
| Target 2 | 276.00 (42.5%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 63.88 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 63.02 | -1.3% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 64.52 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 61.17 | -5.2% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 63.26 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 65.64 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 64.18 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 66.97 | +4.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 73.74 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 70.63 | -4.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 244.53 | |
| END | SELL | 193.72 | -20.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-30 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
58 trades, 40% win rate, and the strategy ends down 51.7% while buy and hold did +99.4%? the system is the expensive part here
exactly what i was thinking. one death cross in sept and it rode the dump from 244 down to 63, the RSI filter saved nothing
still up 192% on the year and people are acting like the trend is dead lol. 174 support holding is all i care about
target 1 at 245 with a stop at 152 is basically a coin flip on reclaiming the high. waiting for the 50d to turn first
Anyone who bought the October 1 signal at 244 is sitting on a 20% loss at 193. A HIGH conviction flag on that entry looks rough in hindsight.
price holding 193 while OBV drops and volume ratio sits at 0.58… someone is feeding supply into every bounce imo
could be plain post-drawdown fatigue too. 5 of 8 factors bullish with the 50d rising reads consolidation more than distribution to me
The regulatory uncertainty makes me hesitant to jump in fully.
regulatory uncertainty is always the excuse after the drawdown, never before. 45 percent off the high was the market pricing QNT risk long before any agency said a word
Concerned about the volatility here. Seems like a risky play.