Deep Dive Analysis
Rain (RAIN)
2026-10-07 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.02
0.02
DRAWDOWN
-40.1%
-40.1%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 1 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, RSI weak (36.2), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.66)
RAIN Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.2 | ADX (14) | 24.4 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.02 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.54%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| RAIN | -15.5% | -13.3% | -24.7% | +14.7% |
| BTC | +8.9% | +28.4% | +13.0% | -1.9% |
| ETH | +6.1% | +34.4% | +27.4% | -9.1% |
| SOL | +17.4% | +56.6% | +41.4% | -1.5% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
41,401
RETURN
+18.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-33.3%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| RAIN | +18.3% | +54.6% | -33.3% | 6 | 50% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (RAIN)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +14.7% | 54,102 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -6.2% | 32,841 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +0.7% | 35,245 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -6.0% | 32,890 |
RAIN Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-9.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-24 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-25 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.3% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-27 | SELL | 0.01 | +43.8% |
| 2026-06-06 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-18 | SELL | 0.01 | +8.5% |
| 2026-07-19 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-20 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 0.02 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.7% |
| 2026-08-27 | BUY | 0.02 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.01 | -18.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-07 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
position size 5,250 on a coin trading at 0.01 with targets literally listed at 0.00. and this is the CONSERVATIVE institutional plan lol
that may 27 spike carried the entire 18.3 percent. remove one lucky trade and the backtest is just a slow bleed in a coin that did 54 percent
the 0.00 targets are the template defaulting past the decimals. whole plan reads like it auto-generated a short at 0.01 lol
the 0.00 targets gave it away, the template clearly cannot handle sub-cent prices. a human editor would have caught that in a second
0.00 targets on a 0.01 coin is the funniest template bug of the year. verdict was right but the math engine clearly gave up
the 0.00 targets are brutal but the verdict was already priced by the tape. down 40 percent from 0.02 with one bull factor, the model just confirmed the obvious
0.00 targets on a sub-cent coin is the template hitting its own decimal floor. the SELL was right, the engine just cant speak 0.01
decimal floor bug aside, the 18.3 vs 54.6 gap is the part that should scare anyone copying the conservative plan
1 bull factor vs 7 bear and price under both the 50d and 200d MA. stage 4 downtrend with a -40% drawdown, this one is a hard pass
^ exactly. ADX at 24 means the downtrend actually has legs too, this aint a chop zone where you fade it
adx at 24 on a microcap downtrend is basically a freight train. fading that because rsi looks low is how bags get heavier
adx 24 on a 0.01 coin is untradeable anyway. spreads eat more than the stop does at that price
bought RAIN near 0.02 thinking resistance would break instead it became the ceiling. sitting on a heavy bag while RSI sits at 36, the AVOID label stings but it is accurate
rip, backtest ends at 21k from 35k so it could always be worse. still, cutting at 0.01 before the 0.00 low gets tested is probably right
same entry near 0.02 here, averaged down once and now just praying the 0.01 support holds. the AVOID label is free advice at this point
the backtest did +18.3% while buy and hold did +54.6% and the verdict is still SELL. trend following really is just paying fees to underperform here
exactly, and check the trade log, one trade on may 27 shows +43.8% then everything after is red. system caught one lucky spike and rode losses since
a system returning 18.3 percent while the coin itself did 54.6 is my favorite sell signal. the model is fighting one lucky may spike and losing
a sell system that lags one lucky may spike is fine honestly. you are selling the structure, not the single green candle
18.3 vs 54.6 with a SELL badge is the system admitting it missed the may spike and wanting credit for the exit. fair verdict, wild math
the 18.3 vs 54.6 gap wanting credit for the exit is exactly it. one lucky may candle and the badge pretends it called the turn at 0.02
the math is wild but the verdict was still sell at 0.01 with one bull factor. even a broken template found the right door here
1 bull factor vs 7 bear and the bull is a golden cross. down 40% from the high at 0.02 while SOL did +56% over the same window. yeah im good
golden cross as the lone bull factor while price sits under both the 50d and 200d. those crosses lag so hard on microcaps
one bull factor against seven bear on a coin already down 40 percent from 0.02. at least the verdict finally matches the tape, cutting at 0.01 is fair
The template printing 0.00 targets on a sub-cent coin is embarrassing, but the SELL verdict was still correct. Down 40 percent from 0.02 with RSI at 36 argues for exit regardless.