Deep Dive Analysis
Sei (SEI)
2026-07-23 16:02 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.05
0.05
52W HIGH
0.74
0.74
DRAWDOWN
-93.8%
-93.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (36.6), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.63)
SEI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.16
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.05
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.05
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.6 | ADX (14) | 15.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.05 | 200d MA | 0.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.05 | Resistance | 0.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.33%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SEI | -4.4% | -27.8% | -31.2% | -71.3% |
| BTC | +5.2% | -16.6% | -9.2% | -31.5% |
| ETH | +10.8% | -11.7% | -10.3% | -39.4% |
| SOL | -6.0% | -13.0% | -13.9% | -45.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,712
RETURN
-27.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-45.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SEI | -27.4% | -79.9% | -45.9% | 27 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SEI)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -71.3% | 1,722 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -61.3% | 4,645 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -57.1% | 5,147 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -52.5% | 5,696 |
SEI Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-8.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-07-18 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2025-08-02 | SELL | 0.27 | -23.0% |
| 2025-08-04 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2025-08-05 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.0% |
| 2025-08-07 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2025-08-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2025-08-12 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-19 | SELL | 0.30 | -7.8% |
| 2025-08-22 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-24 | SELL | 0.31 | -3.7% |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.29 | -13.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 16:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
93.8% drawdown from the high and they still gave it a target price of 0.00. brutal but honest
rekt_sei_bagholder 93.8% drawdown and target price of 0.00 is brutal honesty from an analyst. rare to see a straight SELL instead of neutral wishy-washy
bought SEI at 0.32 during that fake August bounce last year. the backtest trade log is giving me war flashbacks
37% win rate across 27 trades and the strategy STILL beat buy and hold by 50+ points. thats not a bullish case for SEI thats just evidence buy and hold was worse
37% win rate across 27 trades and still beat buy and hold by 50 points. tells you everything about how bad holding SEI was
93.8% drawdown and 37% win rate means the strategy worked by shorting rallies. any long bias on SEI since launch has been pure pain
93.8 percent drawdown and a 0.00 price target. brutal but honest. most analysts would hedge with neutral and let bagholders keep dreaming
Caspar H. 37 percent win rate beating buy and hold by 50 points just shows how catastrophically bad holding SEI was. the strategy won by bleeding slower not by being good
93.8 percent drawdown and a 0.00 price target. brutal but honest. most analysts would hedge with neutral and let bagholders keep dreaming
Caspar H. 37 percent win rate beating buy and hold by 50 points just shows how catastrophically bad holding SEI was. the strategy won by bleeding slower not by being good
93.8% drawdown and a target price of 0.00 is honest analysis. most analysts would give a 0.03 target to seem reasonable. this one just says get out
drawdown_survivor_ target price of 0.00 is not honesty its shock value. an asset with a 400M mcap doesnt go to zero unless the chain halts
drawdown_void_ agree. target price of 0.00 on a 400M mcap chain is theater not analysis. the chain is clearly failing but zero means the author wants clicks not credibility
drawdown_void_ a 400M mcap going to zero isnt crazy when the chain has 0.05 price and 15.5 ADX. low liquidity plus zero institutional interest plus death cross equals a slow bleed to delisting
one signal a month on a 15.5 ADX chart, the system basically sat out and still beat holding. that says everything about SEI and nothing good about the strategy
37 percent win rate and 27 trades in 2 years. thats roughly one trade per month. trend following on a coin with -93.8 percent drawdown is just catching dead cat bounces
one setup a month is the whole point of trend following. you skip the chop, eat a 37% win rate, and let the 3R winners pay for everything. most people cant stomach the math
93.8% drawdown from 0.74 to 0.05. even by crypto standards thats catastrophic. whoever bought the top is never recovering
37% win rate beating buy and hold by 50 points means SEI buy and hold was catastrophically bad. the strategy made money by losing less not by being right
Jani P. 27 trades at 37% win rate and still positive. the take profit sizing must have been 3-4x the stop loss to pull that off. classic trend following where losers are small and winners run
93.8pct drawdown from 0.74 to 0.05 and people are still holding. at some point you just accept its a write off for tax purposes and move on
harvested mine at 0.09 last fall and slept fine since. the write off crew still holding for a 2027 cycle are running on pure sunk cost at this point
0.09 exit is looking smarter every week its 0.05. the sunk cost crew still holding for a 2027 retrace to 0.74 is basically a religion at this point
a 12k deployment plan against a 0.05 token with a 15.5 ADX. the spreadsheet says sell, anyone with a position already knew that six drawdown months ago
the 12k deployment plan against a 400M mcap reads like a eulogy with a spreadsheet attached. below 0.10 its just attrition, the SELL rating is a formality