Deep Dive Analysis
Sei (SEI)
2026-07-23 16:02 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.05
0.05
52W HIGH
0.74
0.74
DRAWDOWN
-93.8%
-93.8%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (36.6), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.63)
SEI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.16
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.05
Low: 0.04
Now: 0.05
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 36.6 | ADX (14) | 15.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.05 | 200d MA | 0.07 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.05 | Resistance | 0.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.33%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SEI | -4.4% | -27.8% | -31.2% | -71.3% |
| BTC | +5.2% | -16.6% | -9.2% | -31.5% |
| ETH | +10.8% | -11.7% | -10.3% | -39.4% |
| SOL | -6.0% | -13.0% | -13.9% | -45.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,712
RETURN
-27.4%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-45.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SEI | -27.4% | -79.9% | -45.9% | 27 | 37% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SEI)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -71.3% | 1,722 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -61.3% | 4,645 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -57.1% | 5,147 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -52.5% | 5,696 |
SEI Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.04 (-8.7%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-07-18 | BUY | 0.35 | |
| 2025-08-02 | SELL | 0.27 | -23.0% |
| 2025-08-04 | BUY | 0.30 | |
| 2025-08-05 | SELL | 0.29 | -5.0% |
| 2025-08-07 | BUY | 0.31 | |
| 2025-08-11 | SELL | 0.31 | -0.9% |
| 2025-08-12 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-19 | SELL | 0.30 | -7.8% |
| 2025-08-22 | BUY | 0.32 | |
| 2025-08-24 | SELL | 0.31 | -3.7% |
| 2025-09-11 | BUY | 0.34 | |
| 2025-09-22 | SELL | 0.29 | -13.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-07-23 16:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
93.8% drawdown from the high and they still gave it a target price of 0.00. brutal but honest
rekt_sei_bagholder 93.8% drawdown and target price of 0.00 is brutal honesty from an analyst. rare to see a straight SELL instead of neutral wishy-washy
bought SEI at 0.32 during that fake August bounce last year. the backtest trade log is giving me war flashbacks
37% win rate across 27 trades and the strategy STILL beat buy and hold by 50+ points. thats not a bullish case for SEI thats just evidence buy and hold was worse
37% win rate across 27 trades and still beat buy and hold by 50 points. tells you everything about how bad holding SEI was
93.8% drawdown from 0.74 to 0.05. even by crypto standards thats catastrophic. whoever bought the top is never recovering