Deep Dive Analysis
Shiba Inu (SHIB)
2026-09-13 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.00
0.00
DRAWDOWN
-0%
-0%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: 50d rising, RSI healthy (54.1), strong bull trend (ADX 76.0)
Bearish factors: far below high
SHIB Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 54.1 | ADX (14) | 76.0 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.00 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.12%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SHIB | -13.0% | +30.5% | -13.0% | -42.0% |
| BTC | -0.8% | +21.0% | -4.7% | -17.9% |
| ETH | +1.0% | +37.8% | +5.4% | -22.9% |
| SOL | +5.3% | +30.7% | +16.4% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
12,365
RETURN
-64.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-66.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SHIB | -64.7% | -59.8% | -66.2% | 47 | 8% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SHIB)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -42.0% | 13,050 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -26.5% | 25,719 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -22.5% | 27,127 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -20.0% | 28,016 |
SHIB Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (nan%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-02 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-03 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-04 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-05 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-06 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-07 | SELL | 0.00 | -16.7% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-11 | SELL | 0.00 | +0.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.00 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.00 | +4.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
35k portfolio and SHIB gets a HOLD from Oliver Schmidt. we truly live in a simulation
Holding SHIB since 2021. At this point selling feels like quitting a marathon at km 40.
@Piotr the marathon analogy is cope my friend, but honestly same. burns aint doing anything tho
Piotr held since 2021 and selling feels like quitting, thats exactly the psychology that keeps a stage 3 topping token bleeding for years. the marathon has no finish line my friend
km 40 of a marathon actually ends though. 3 bull factors against 1 bear is the chart being polite about the hole shib is sitting in since 2021
the hole since 2021 is the accurate part. every shib rally since has been a lower high, the marathon map keeps redrawing the finish line
km 40 of a marathon has a finish line tho, shib since 2021 is more like a treadmill. no shame in taking the loss and redeploying into something with a floor
treadmill is generous, its a decline with fan art. burn announcements since 2021 and the chart still only respects one direction
ADX at 76 and he still says no clear edge? thats a strong trend oliver, just say youre scared of the topper label lol
ADX at 76 on a token this far off its high means the strong trend IS the slide. saying no clear edge is the politest way to refuse the topper label oliver
ADX at 76 far below the high means the strong trend IS the slide. calling it no clear edge is just refusing to write the word top in a shib headline
lower highs since 2021 and the 50d rising just means the bleed slowed down. adx 76 measuring the slide is the politest demolition of a HOLD verdict ive read
adx 76 on a token 80 percent down is the chart screaming trend while your bags scream otherwise. treadmill gang rise up, slowly
adx 76 while price sits 80 percent off the high is the trend pointing down, not scared of labels. oliver charted his own bear case and called it neutral
Stage 3 topping with only 1 bear factor against 3 bull ones. Honestly the 50d rising is doing a lot of work here, I would hold too.
delia the bear factor is being far below high tho, thats kinda the whole problem with shib lol
3 bull factors on a token 80 percent off highs means the checklist is measuring momentum, not value. stage 3 topping is the honest label hiding in plain sight
a momentum checklist on a token 80 percent off highs, yeah. stage 3 label is sitting right there and the verdict still says HOLD
a 35k portfolio getting a plain HOLD with burns marked useless is the least hype thing written about shib all year. stage 3 topping says it all
35k parked at km 40 of a treadmill. at least the piece admits the burns are decorative, that HOLD is doing a lot of emotional labor
burns marked useless is the most honest line in a shib piece all year. the 50d is doing all the lifting while supply just sits there. hold really means stop looking at it
burns have been theater since the supply barely moves quarter to quarter. when the 50d slope is doing all the work on a HOLD verdict, the fundamentals column is empty
quarterly supply barely moving while burns trend on X, theater is a generous word for it. the 50d slope is carrying a dead thesis
Femi Ade on the burns is correct, supply barely moves quarter to quarter. A HOLD resting on a 50d slope while stage 3 tops the chart is generous
marathon at km 40 or treadmill, either way im not redeploying into another lower high. shib owes me nothing and im done lending