Deep Dive Analysis
Sky (SKY)
2026-09-20 15:00 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.06
0.06
DRAWDOWN
-76.2%
-76.2%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (35.7), far below high, breakdown below lower band
SKY Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.02
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 35.7 | ADX (14) | 6.2 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.02 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.08%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SKY | -0.0% | -5.7% | -4.9% | -36.3% |
| BTC | +3.8% | +24.7% | +0.2% | -11.6% |
| ETH | +6.9% | +38.2% | +13.7% | -16.4% |
| SOL | +6.2% | +41.6% | +14.7% | -22.3% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
34,485
RETURN
-1.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-1.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SKY | -1.5% | -61.9% | -1.5% | 22 | 9% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SKY)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -36.3% | 21,764 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -29.0% | 24,852 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -26.3% | 25,806 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -23.3% | 26,843 |
SKY Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-0.2%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-07-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-15 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-16 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-18 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-19 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-20 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-21 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-22 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-24 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-07-25 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-20 15:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
22 trades, 9% win rate, and the backtest only lost 1.5%? the RSI filter and fast exits are doing all the heavy lifting here lol
^ two wins out of 22 and only -1.5% because the system cuts losses same day. meanwhile buy and hold folks ate -61.9% doing nothing
9% win rate works when the 2 winners run and the 20 losers get cut same day. brutal to watch live but the -1.5% backtest versus -61.9% buy and hold is the whole argument
RSI filter plus same day exits is 90 percent of any trend system edge. people act shocked every time the boring part is what works lol
target 1 and target 2 both listed at -100%. they could not even pretend there is upside. i remember when this was MakerDAO and people called it the safest thing in DeFi
safest blue chip until the Sky rebrand, then -76% off the high. trust the brand, inherit the drawdown
Maker was the safest thing in DeFi until the Sky name swap reset every narrative. targets at -100% on both is the spreadsheet admitting there is no bid story left
both targets at -100 percent is the politest way a spreadsheet ever said abandoned. the -1.5 vs -61.9 backtest gap was the only goodbye letter holders needed
DCA with 12 buys still lost 23.3% over a year. when even monthly averaging down cannot get you anywhere near green, AVOID is the only honest signal left
its worse than the DCA number, -61.9% buy and hold versus -1.5% for the system on the same window. averaging down only works if the asset eventually turns
the -1.5 versus -61.9 gap on the same window is why mechanical exits earn their keep. conviction is expensive when the trend never shows up
the -1.5 versus -61.9 gap is the whole article tbh. the system is boring and boring is winning
23.3 percent loss across 12 buys is wild. averaging down feels safe because each buy is small, the total bleed is what actually kills you
exactly, 12 buys turned minus 36 into minus 23 and people will call that progress. dca math only works if a bid comes back, and the 0.01 stop loss says nobody expects one
0.01 against a 0.06 high and the SELL is somehow the least controversial call on this site. the 76% rebrand drawdown already told everyone what the signal would say
Maker was the bluechip everyone told beginners to park money in. Sky at 0.01 with both targets at -100 percent is just the obituary in table form
Maker was the safe bluechip until people had to explain the Sky rebrand to their accountant. Burning that much brand equity for a logo swap should be a business school case
rune gave everyone a full year to exit at 0.03 and people held into 0.01. the SELL badge is basically grief counseling at this point
9 percent win rate across 22 trades and the SELL badge is still underreacting. when the model cant even hallucinate a bid above zero the story is over
maker to sky to a SELL badge with both targets at -100 percent. what a strange five years this has been
maker dao to sky to a SELL badge at 0.01. i sat through the rebrand town halls where they promised the cleanest money ever, feels like a decade ago now
obituary framing is fair but rsi 35 with adx 6 means the trend is dead too. even sellers ran out of conviction at 0.01, nothing left but the wait
adx 6 is the part that gets me. even the sellers stopped pressing. nothing left but letting the boring system collect its 1.5 percent toll
maker was the safest lego in defi once and ended as a SELL with -100 targets. spark quietly took the stablecoin mindshare while everyone argued about the logo
22 trades and a 9 percent win rate is the funniest honest stat this week. system lost 1.5 percent by refusing to be brave, holders lost 61.9 believing a name swap