Deep Dive Analysis
Solana (SOL)
2026-09-18 08:30 UTC · Oliver Schmidt · 35,000 Portfolio
PRICE
105.74
105.74
52W HIGH
294.33
294.33
DRAWDOWN
-64.1%
-64.1%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (60.1), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 41.3), vol 1.34x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.19)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
SOL Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 135.73
Low: 60.41
Now: 105.74
Low: 60.41
Now: 105.74
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 60.1 | ADX (14) | 41.3 |
| 50d MA | 90.58 | 200d MA | 83.51 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 84.08 | Resistance | 110.04 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.02%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | +1.6% | +41.0% | +9.7% | -22.1% |
| BTC | +0.0% | +21.8% | -5.2% | -13.9% |
| ETH | +2.1% | +35.5% | +5.3% | -19.1% |
| SOL | +1.5% | +41.0% | +9.7% | -22.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 35,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
31,421
RETURN
-10.2%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-42.7%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -10.2% | +0.0% | -42.7% | 58 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
If you had deployed 35,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -22.1% | 15,514 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.6% | 34,778 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -4.2% | 33,546 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +3.8% | 36,331 |
SOL Deployment Plan — 35,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Oliver Schmidt (Conservative / Institutional). If you’re managing a 35,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 5,250 (15% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 97.25 (-8.0%) |
| Target 1 | 118.00 (11.6%) |
| Target 2 | 127.00 (20.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 10 |
Cash reserve: keep 15% buffer. Deploy in 3 tranches. Portfolio style: Conservative / Institutional.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | 76.18 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | 75.33 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | 77.03 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | 85.37 | +10.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | 104.13 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | 105.65 | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | 101.88 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | 103.00 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | 99.99 | |
| END | SELL | 105.74 | +5.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-18 08:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
buy signal with a 64% drawdown still baked in, brave call oliver. ADX 41 at least confirms the trend is real
Backtest on SOL lost 10% with a 42% max drawdown and the verdict is still BUY? I will wait for the 110 resistance to break first.
@Marek thats why its a trend following system not a crystal ball, the 9 bull factors vs 2 bear is the actual signal
42% drawdown on that backtest sounds brutal but remember it covers the full 294 to 60 collapse. forward risk from 105 is way smaller imo
@Bozena fair point on forward risk, but the backtest also caught the 60 bottom. from 105 the upside to the old range is nearly 3x, thats the trade being made here
waiting for the 110 break means your fill is like 118 after the chase. kestrel had it right, half at 105 half on the 84 retest is the disciplined play here
this is the way. limit orders at 84 either fill or they dont, chasing a 110 breakout at 118 is how you end up down 12% on a winning thesis lol
+41% over 3 months while its still down 22% on the year, decent entry zone if the 84 support holds
adx 41.3 with a golden cross under 110 is the part that gets me. trend traders eat good on setups like this
the ADX 41 point is fair but check what MACD did the last two times ADX ran this hot. momentum divergence is what kills these mid trend entries
checked those prints, both times ADX rolled over within two weeks of the divergence. worth watching but sitting out a 9 to 2 factor spread over it is a stretch
pulled up the last two hot ADX prints, one diverged out and one ran 40 percent more. divergence alone doesnt settle a mid trend entry, it just argues for smaller size
Respect the system, but deploying 35k while MACD is still negative feels aggressive. Thats the one bear flag I keep staring at.
gustav has a point on the MACD but 9 bull factors vs 2 bear is hard to ignore. split the entry, half now and half on an 84 retest
@Gustav the MACD lag is exactly why the signal fires late though. By the time it flips positive you’ve missed 15% of the move, that’s the cost of trend following.
bought the $60 low in a panic sell and people are calling entries at 105? i’ll let someone else chase this one lol
respect the 60 entry but waiting for a second panic print is just portfolio sized in hopium. 9 bull vs 2 bear says the trend already flipped
half now and half on the 84 retest is literally the compromise you two are arguing past. both fills and your average is mid 90s anyway
The 84 level being both the retest target and the invalidation is clean risk math. Entries where the stop is obvious are the only ones worth taking at 105.
backtest says -10.2% and everyone still salutes the BUY flag. the DCA table is the actual signal, 4 buys at -0.6% beat the whole strategy lol
84 retest crew checking in. if that level holds on volume this becomes one of the cleaner SOL entries of the year, if it slices through 105 buyers are the exit liquidity
if 84 slices ill just ladder at 70 and 60 instead, one level you marry is one level that wrecks you. the 294 top taught me that
laddering at 70 and 60 assumes the 84 floor gives way cleanly. more likely it bounces before your fills, been burned by that exact hope twice this year
split entries sound disciplined until the 84 retest never comes and youre half size on a 40% run. ask me how i know
macd still red at 105 is why im only half size here. but a daily close above 110 and this rips toward the old range fast, adx 41 says the trend does the work
9 bull vs 2 bear earns the BUY tag, but a backtest that lost 10.2% is why im capping size at a third of the 35k. the DCA table literally beat the strategy