This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Solana (SOL)
USD 82.89
USD 294.33
-71.8%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (24.1), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 38.0), distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.77)
Low: USD 60.41
Now: USD 82.89
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 24.1 | ADX (14) | 38.0 |
| 50d MA | USD 104.65 | 200d MA | USD 88.94 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 81.62 | Resistance | USD 109.03 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.65%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SOL | -19.9% | -16.0% | +1.5% | -2.1% |
| BTC | -9.8% | -4.2% | +16.2% | +7.6% |
| ETH | -14.4% | -16.2% | +14.9% | +3.3% |
| SOL | -19.9% | -16.0% | +1.5% | -2.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 12,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SOL | -6.9% | -47.1% | -42.7% | 38 | 47% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SOL)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 12,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -2.1% | USD 6,855 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -9.6% | USD 10,851 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -18.6% | USD 9,762 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -11.2% | USD 10,657 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify SOL. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 81.62 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 109.03 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 75.18 (-9.3% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 3.85 (4.65%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | USD 75.95 | |
| 2026-08-11 | SELL | USD 76.20 | +0.3% |
| 2026-08-13 | BUY | USD 76.18 | |
| 2026-08-14 | SELL | USD 75.33 | -1.1% |
| 2026-08-18 | BUY | USD 77.03 | |
| 2026-08-19 | SELL | USD 85.37 | +10.8% |
| 2026-08-28 | BUY | USD 104.13 | |
| 2026-08-29 | SELL | USD 105.65 | +1.5% |
| 2026-08-30 | BUY | USD 101.88 | |
| 2026-08-31 | SELL | USD 103.00 | +1.1% |
| 2026-09-01 | BUY | USD 99.99 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | USD 105.56 | +5.6% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
RSI 24.1 and they still found a golden cross to call bullish. 1 factor out of 10, brave listing lol
Sitting right above support at 81.62 with ADX 38. if that breaks theres not much until the 60s, the 1 year low was 60.41
agreed on the support watch, but 4.65% ATR daily means one bad candle slices right thru it. not exactly a floor