Deep Dive Analysis
Sui (SUI)
2026-10-01 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.15
1.15
52W HIGH
3.63
3.63
DRAWDOWN
-68.4%
-68.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (64.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 29.3), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.46)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
SUI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.52
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.15
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 64.9 | ADX (14) | 29.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.83 | 200d MA | 0.85 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.69 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.03%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SUI | +57.7% | +65.8% | +7.7% | -24.4% |
| BTC | +8.9% | +28.8% | +8.7% | -6.9% |
| ETH | +9.9% | +39.7% | +26.6% | -9.3% |
| SOL | +19.1% | +57.9% | +37.2% | -7.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
20,632
RETURN
+37.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-9.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SUI | +37.5% | +24.2% | -9.6% | 21 | 57% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SUI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -24.4% | 18,634 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +40.5% | 21,082 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +45.1% | 21,765 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +44.7% | 21,709 |
SUI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.93 (-18.6%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.65) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 0.86 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 0.90 | +4.7% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -6.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.19 | +17.8% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.26 | +8.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-10-01 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-01 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
max drawdown -9.6% vs -68% buy and hold is the only stat that matters and it is buried mid article. the death cross gang should read that row twice
Bought at 0.84 in September so seeing 1.15 feels good, but that resistance at 1.26 is the real test. Volume ratio 1.46 suggests people are still accumulating though.
nice entry. 1.26 is where the 3.63 bagholders from the top start unloading tho, first touch usually gets sold into
first touch of 1.26 getting sold into is my base case too. but vol ratio 1.46 means the buyers arent done yet, id expect at least one more push into that zone before the 3.63 crowd gets their exit
Death cross on the bearish side while everything else screams buy is such a SUI thing. ADX 29.3 says the trend has legs, I would just size smaller than usual.
The DCA table is what gets me. Lump sum a year ago and you are down 24 percent, but 6 buys gets you 45.1. Timing the whole dip was never the point.
@Yunjin S. exactly, and the strategy max drawdown was only -9.6% versus holding through that -68% slide from 3.63. Sleeping matters more than squeezing the last percent.