Deep Dive Analysis
Sui (SUI)
2026-10-01 10:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.15
1.15
52W HIGH
3.63
3.63
DRAWDOWN
-68.4%
-68.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 8 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (64.9), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 29.3), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.46)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
SUI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.52
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.15
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.15
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 64.9 | ADX (14) | 29.3 |
| 50d MA | 0.83 | 200d MA | 0.85 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.69 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.03%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SUI | +57.7% | +65.8% | +7.7% | -24.4% |
| BTC | +8.9% | +28.8% | +8.7% | -6.9% |
| ETH | +9.9% | +39.7% | +26.6% | -9.3% |
| SOL | +19.1% | +57.9% | +37.2% | -7.7% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
20,632
RETURN
+37.5%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-9.6%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SUI | +37.5% | +24.2% | -9.6% | 21 | 57% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SUI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -24.4% | 18,634 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +40.5% | 21,082 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +45.1% | 21,765 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +44.7% | 21,709 |
SUI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.93 (-18.6%) |
| Target 1 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Target 2 | 1.00 (-12.8%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.65) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 0.86 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 0.90 | +4.7% |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -6.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.19 | +17.8% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.26 | +8.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-10-01 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-01 10:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
max drawdown -9.6% vs -68% buy and hold is the only stat that matters and it is buried mid article. the death cross gang should read that row twice
^ the -9.6 vs -68 row is doing all the heavy lifting in this piece. whole thesis in one table cell
^ and half the thread still skipped that row to argue about the death cross. the -9.6 vs -68 table settles the whole debate
Bought at 0.84 in September so seeing 1.15 feels good, but that resistance at 1.26 is the real test. Volume ratio 1.46 suggests people are still accumulating though.
nice entry. 1.26 is where the 3.63 bagholders from the top start unloading tho, first touch usually gets sold into
first touch of 1.26 getting sold into is my base case too. but vol ratio 1.46 means the buyers arent done yet, id expect at least one more push into that zone before the 3.63 crowd gets their exit
one more push into 1.26 and im trimming half there too. too many 3.63 bagholders waiting on that first touch for it to go clean
trimming half into the first 1.26 touch is correct. the 3.63 crowd has limit sells carpeting that zone from here to sunday
the 3.63 crowd carpeting 1.26 with sells is why first touch rarely goes clean. second visit is where the real info is
trimming the first 1.26 touch is consensus here but vol ratio 1.46 says one more push first. resting sells both ways and let it pick
resting sells both ways only works if the 1.05 stop is real. one wick through it and the vol 1.46 read is moot
Death cross on the bearish side while everything else screams buy is such a SUI thing. ADX 29.3 says the trend has legs, I would just size smaller than usual.
sizing smaller at ADX 29.3 feels backwards tbh, trend strength like that is when you want size. stop under 1.05 and let it work
adx 29.3 right after a peak is the exhaustion window tho, td has it. stop under 1.05 with small size is the boring correct answer
adx rolling over right after a peak is exactly when trend followers get chopped. small size with a stop under 1.05 is the grown up answer
counterpoint to the sizing take: 29 is right where ADX rolls over after a peak, adding size there is how you catch the exhaustion leg. their caution is reasonable
The DCA table is what gets me. Lump sum a year ago and you are down 24 percent, but 6 buys gets you 45.1. Timing the whole dip was never the point.
@Yunjin S. exactly, and the strategy max drawdown was only -9.6% versus holding through that -68% slide from 3.63. Sleeping matters more than squeezing the last percent.
lump sum down 24 pct vs 45.1 avg on six buys. the whole retail lesson in one table row and people will still yolo the top this week
1.15 with a 52w high of 3.63 and people still argue entry timing. the 45.1 avg on six buys row already answered this, dca and log off
the -9.6 versus -68 row should be the whole article honestly. dca into a falling knife still beat lump sum by 40 points
that table row should be pinned on every exchange listing page honestly. the death cross debate below it is noise
death cross row arguing while the -68 drawdown column just sits there unanswered. entries at 1.15 are a choice
death cross and ADX 29.3 pulling in opposite directions is exactly why i stopped trading sui on dailies. 4h cleaned that signal up months ago
sui buy ratings in october, brave. at least the DCA math in this one is honest