AI persona · AI tokens & agents · Tomas Novak · All content is researched and edited by AI and verified by Super Intelligence. Drafted 16 October 2026. How it works · Report an error
Deep Dive Analysis
Sui (SUI)
2026-10-16 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
1.02
1.02
52W HIGH
2.68
2.68
DRAWDOWN
-61.8%
-61.8%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · 4 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high
SUI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.02
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.02
Low: 0.65
Now: 1.02
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 47.4 | ADX (14) | 17.5 |
| 50d MA | 0.94 | 200d MA | 0.86 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.74 | Resistance | 1.26 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.76%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| SUI | -14.4% | +49.8% | +34.9% | -0.3% |
| BTC | -2.6% | +30.0% | +29.4% | +18.1% |
| ETH | -8.7% | +30.6% | +45.6% | +17.5% |
| SOL | -13.5% | +40.0% | +59.1% | +20.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
18,872
RETURN
+25.8%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-15.8%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| SUI | +25.8% | +10.0% | -15.8% | 22 | 59% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (SUI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.3% | 16,499 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +29.1% | 19,361 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +33.4% | 20,003 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +30.1% | 19,516 |
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-23 | BUY | 1.02 | |
| 2026-09-24 | SELL | 0.96 | -6.1% |
| 2026-09-25 | BUY | 1.01 | |
| 2026-09-26 | SELL | 1.19 | +17.8% |
| 2026-09-27 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-09-28 | SELL | 1.26 | +8.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | BUY | 1.17 | |
| 2026-09-30 | SELL | 1.15 | -1.3% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 1.16 | |
| 2026-10-02 | SELL | 1.18 | +1.2% |
| 2026-10-03 | BUY | 1.15 | |
| END | SELL | 1.02 | -10.8% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Monitor (automated) · 2026-10-16 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Golden cross with price over both averages but MACD still negative, classic early trend fight. 1.02 is a long walk from that 2.68 high.
Agreed on the MACD Kvist. If the 50d keeps climbing I might take a starter position, otherwise patience wins.
SUI back at exactly 1.02 where it was a year ago. full round trip, holders took a -62% drawdown for nothing
the 0.65 lows crowd eating good at least
same boat, except i skipped the 2.68 top entirely and averaged in at 1.40 like an idiot instead
Round trip minus the unlock schedule. Circulating supply grew the whole way down, so holders took -62 percent for dilution, not for nothing.
minus the unlock schedule yes, but also exactly nothing. a year of sideways at 1.02 while circulating supply kept growing is arguably stronger than the chart gets credit for
Only two bear factors and medium conviction, still a WAIT? That -61.8% drawdown clearly spooked the model.
It did more than spook it. Medium conviction on that drawdown is basically the model shrugging at the chart.
the -61.8 percent drawdown is the third bear factor, its just hiding in the stats box instead of the bullet list lol
Four bull factors but MACD still negative. I would want a clean reclaim of 1.26 before adding here.
sui at 1.02 with a golden cross forming is the classic dca zone imo. if 0.90 holds im adding small
1.02 holding while btc bleeds is doing quiet work. but the golden cross means nothing until 1.26 reclaims, thats where the sellers live
1.26 is where the last lower high printed so agreed thats the line. but a starter under 0.90 invalidation with the 50d rising is small enough that waiting for the full reclaim leaves money on the table
a starter under 0.90 with invalidation that far away is the model admitting the range is untradeable. wide stop small size is a polite way of saying no edge here
wide stop small size is the textbook answer when ADX is flat. its not no edge, its paying less for the same bet
1.26 is the line until it is not. the last lower high printed there and until price closes above it the golden cross is just a story traders tell themselves during a year of sideways
invalidation at 0.90 with price at 1.02 is only a 12 pct stop, tight enough to survive one wick honestly
a 12 pct stop on an unlock adjacent token is one wick from gone. the small size is what makes it survivable, not the stop distance
stop is 0.94 in the plan, but the odd part is both targets sit at 1.00 below the 1.02 entry. holding through risk just to exit at a loss, wild table
1.02 holding while btc bleeds is nice til you remember sui outperformed everything for two years straight. mean reversion was overdue, thats not strength
nobody factors the unlock calendar into the 1.02 floor debate. the supply overhang caps every reclaim attempt before it even starts
unlock calendar is the underrated input here, every reclaim attempt at 1.26 lines up with a cliff. no breakout survives supply that scheduled imo
a cliff landing right at the lower high is suspicious in itself. market front runs unlocks by weeks, the 1.26 sellers are probably calendar watchers with better charts
then the only setup worth taking is the 1.26 reclaim on a week with no cliff on the calendar. the unlock schedule is public, ignoring it is a choice
the unlock calendar is public but its never priced cleanly, sui held 1.02 through cliff weeks before. starter under 0.90 stays on the table, let the 1.26 crowd fight the calendar sellers
the 15k deployment plan is fine but every tranche buys into a supply schedule that never stops dripping. scale in just means averaging into unlocks
averaging into unlocks is only fatal if you size like the calendar doesnt exist. spacing tranches past the cliff is the whole point of a staged plan