This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Falcon USD (USDF)
USD 0.9953
USD 1.00
-0.5%
Stage 3 (Topping)
Bullish factors: price > 50d, MACD+, RSI healthy (56.9), near 52w high, vol 1.53x on up day
Bearish factors: price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.71)
Low: USD 0.9752
Now: USD 0.9953
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 56.9 | ADX (14) | 14.6 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.9946 | 200d MA | USD 0.9958 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.9912 | Resistance | USD 0.9953 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.05%/day | Model state | Neutral / no trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| USDF | +0.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | -0.0% |
| BTC | -18.0% | -14.6% | +3.6% | -4.1% |
| ETH | -21.3% | -26.1% | +3.6% | -8.1% |
| SOL | -28.7% | -27.3% | -10.6% | -15.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 10,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| USDF | -0.2% | +0.1% | -0.3% | 18 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (USDF)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 10,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -0.0% | USD 10,005 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -0.0% | USD 9,995 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -0.0% | USD 10,000 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.0% | USD 9,995 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify USDF. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.9912 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.9953 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.9935 (-0.2% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.000545 (0.05%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Extended |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-09 | BUY | USD 0.9973 | |
| 2026-09-10 | SELL | USD 0.9965 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-11 | BUY | USD 0.9965 | |
| 2026-09-12 | SELL | USD 0.9963 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-13 | BUY | USD 0.9967 | |
| 2026-09-14 | SELL | USD 0.9965 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-15 | BUY | USD 0.9963 | |
| 2026-09-16 | SELL | USD 0.9961 | -0.0% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | USD 0.9962 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | USD 0.9957 | -0.1% |
| 2026-10-04 | BUY | USD 0.9961 | |
| 2026-10-05 | SELL | USD 0.9962 | +0.0% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
stage 3 topping on a stablecoin sitting at 0.9953. half a percent off the 52w high of 1.00 and the model calls a signal, incredible lol
^ it did hold 0.9912 support tho. for a small cap peg thats not nothing in a month where sol dropped 28.7
genuinely curious who backtests a 50d/200d MA crossover on a pegged asset. the thing trades in a 1% band, any crossover is noise
The comparison table is the useful part. USDF flat on the month while BTC is down 14.6 and ETH 26.1. That is the whole pitch for pegged assets, boring works.