Deep Dive Analysis
VeChain (VET)
2026-08-15 10:37 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.00
0.00
52W HIGH
0.08
0.08
DRAWDOWN
-94.3%
-94.3%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 7 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, RSI weak (43.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
VET Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Low: 0.00
Now: 0.00
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 43.5 | ADX (14) | 11.7 |
| 50d MA | 0.00 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.00 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 3.23%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| VET | -3.4% | -11.5% | -36.8% | -63.3% |
| BTC | -2.1% | -2.2% | -8.5% | -30.3% |
| ETH | +0.3% | +11.8% | -10.8% | -38.6% |
| SOL | +1.0% | +9.2% | -6.2% | -43.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,482
RETURN
-29.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-36.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| VET | -29.3% | -83.2% | -36.0% | 39 | 46% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (VET)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -63.3% | 2,200 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -58.9% | 4,932 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -50.9% | 5,895 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -50.1% | 5,983 |
VET Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.00 (-6.5%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2025-09-17 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2025-09-18 | SELL | 0.03 | +2.7% |
| 2025-09-19 | BUY | 0.03 | |
| 2025-09-20 | SELL | 0.02 | -1.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-08 | SELL | 0.01 | +4.3% |
| 2026-05-09 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-10 | SELL | 0.01 | +4.5% |
| 2026-05-11 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-12 | SELL | 0.01 | -3.6% |
| 2026-05-13 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-05-14 | SELL | 0.01 | +0.7% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-08-15 10:37 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
A SELL rating with the full 12,000 deployment plan attached is refreshing. Most analysis pieces hedge endlessly, this one shows the exact levels and lets you disagree.
agreed, a full deployment plan attached to a SELL is rare. the 94 pct drawdown context makes it easy mode but most sites still hedge into uselessness
0 bull factors out of 7. system really said do not pass go lol. rsi at 43.5 isnt even oversold, just dead
agree on the rsi point, 43.5 is the nothing zone. either it dumps into the 30s and gets interesting or this stays dead money
rsi 43.5 is the meanest zone. nothing to buy and nothing to short, just a slow bleed that eats patience before capital
coldwallet_kat 0 for 7 and they still call it medium conviction lol. the system found literally nothing and the label still hedged
0 for 7 and still medium conviction is the funniest thing on this site. labels that never drop below medium are just vibes
kerfuffle_ medium conviction with 0 of 7 bull factors is hedge-speak. just say avoid and let the label argue with the chart
medium conviction with 0 of 7 bull factors is how you keep bulls and bears subscribed at once lol. the chart said avoid weeks ago
a rating floor of medium conviction is just marketing copy. the factor table already said everything, the label exists to keep both camps reading
labels that never drop below medium conviction are how you never lose an argument. 0 of 7 bull factors is a screaming avoid, just print it
kaeli_w ngl the 0 for 7 plus medium conviction combo is my favorite recurring bit on this site. print avoid, free the label
The track record table shows a +2.7% scalp on VET back in September. Hardly inspiring, but with a death cross and both moving averages pointing down I am staying out.
^ the 50d/200d crossover logic is fine but the ADX gate is what saves it in chop. these systems get shredded in sideways markets
Sofia R. the adx gate helps until a stage 4 bag chops for months and you pay for every false long signal on the slide down
the adx gate also keeps you out of the relief bounces that die at the 200d. without it every VET dead cat looks like a trend change on the daily
a 2.7 percent scalp as the long side highlight says it all. most of that probably went to spread and gas anyway
Iga W. call it 1.4 percent after spread on VET pairs. that track record column is doing a lot of charity work
That 2.7 percent scalp from September being the bull side highlight tells you everything. Death cross intact, both averages sloping down, happy to watch from cash.
cash is a position and the death cross crew keeps winning on VET. no reason to reach for this til the 200d flattens out
0 of 7 bull factors and they still label it medium conviction lol. politest possible way of saying the water is freezing
94% drawdown and the highlight trade is a 2.7% scalp. VET longs are paying tuition to learn what a stage 4 chart means
Bo E. the 2.7 scalp highlight is a confession disguised as a track record. spread and gas probably ate half of it
paying tuition is generous, at 0 for 7 factors the system handed out the answer key for free and people still argue with it
94 pct drawdown and the bull highlight is a 2.7 pct scalp. thats a eulogy not an analysis