Deep Dive Analysis
Venice Token (VVV)
2026-10-20 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
25.35
25.35
52W HIGH
31.98
31.98
DRAWDOWN
-20.7%
-20.7%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 5 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, RSI healthy (52.4)
Bearish factors: MACD-
VVV Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.03
Low: 0.95
Now: 25.35
Low: 0.95
Now: 25.35
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 52.4 | ADX (14) | 13.9 |
| 50d MA | 24.65 | 200d MA | 15.88 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 22.06 | Resistance | 31.98 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.95%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| VVV | -6.1% | +80.5% | +73.3% | +1147.5% |
| BTC | -0.6% | +28.5% | +30.8% | +24.1% |
| ETH | -7.8% | +28.8% | +47.6% | +27.2% |
| SOL | -9.6% | +39.7% | +61.1% | +35.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
17,290
RETURN
+15.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-47.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| VVV | +15.3% | +84.2% | -47.2% | 9 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (VVV)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +1147.5% | 27,623 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +65.1% | 24,772 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +59.9% | 23,985 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +66.3% | 24,939 |
VVV Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 22.84 (-9.9%) |
| Target 1 | 28.00 (10.5%) |
| Target 2 | 30.00 (18.3%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-19 | BUY | 14.05 | |
| 2026-08-27 | SELL | 17.78 | +26.6% |
| 2026-08-29 | BUY | 16.08 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 25.88 | +61.0% |
| 2026-09-10 | BUY | 22.63 | |
| 2026-10-09 | SELL | 22.79 | +0.7% |
| 2026-10-12 | BUY | 24.69 | |
| 2026-10-13 | SELL | 22.36 | -9.4% |
| 2026-10-16 | BUY | 24.76 | |
| 2026-10-17 | SELL | 22.80 | -7.9% |
| 2026-10-20 | BUY | 25.35 | |
| END | SELL | 25.35 | +0.0% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-20 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
VVV up 1147% in a year and the system still says WAIT because ADX is 13.9. honestly fair, that -47.2% max drawdown would have me sick
took the august 16.08 entry myself and held thru september, was not fun. but 33% win rate on 9 trades, i would not copy the log either
mirkosats thats the whole system working tho. 1147% yoy and ADX 13.9 means the trend already burned out, WAIT is protecting you from buying the top of the chart
the backtest says -47.2% max drawdown and we are only at -20.7% off the 31.98 high. system is telling you the pain aint fully priced yet lol
this. -20.7 off the high against a 47 percent historical drawdown means WAIT is just the math doing its job. everyone wants the 1147 percent without the pain that comes attached to it
25.35 now after that run, the 15k deployment plan makes sense only in tranches. Lump sum into a 9 trade 33 percent win rate log is just hope.
Agreed on tranches. With ATR at 4.95% per day, even the timing of the second tranche matters more than people admit.
support at 22.06 is the line im watching. one clean reclaim of the 50d at 24.65 and that WAIT flips imo
22.06 is the line but ADX 13.9 says nobody has the energy to test it in either direction yet. my guess is weeks of chop between there and the 50d at 24.65
chop between 22 and 24.65 with a 4.95 percent daily ATR is not chop, thats a blender. set the alerts and go outside
blender is the right word. with a 4.95 percent daily atr your stop is a suggestion, alerts and patience win this one
blender is the correct word. a 4.95 percent daily atr means any stop under 25 is basically a random number generator
atr of 4.95 percent daily makes every stop a coinflip. only thing that works is sizing down until the range resolves
blender gang. one alert at 22.06, one at 24.65, touch grass til one prints. anything else is donating spread
adx 13.9 basically confirms it. sideways until something forces the test. im holding the 22.06 line with the rest of you
nine trades is not a sample size, its a story with a chart attached. hold rating is defensible but building a 15k deployment plan off nine trades is faith not stats
funnier part is tranche three of the plan gets decided by the same guy who called the first nine trades. the system is one guy with a spreadsheet
one guy with a spreadsheet who admits the market is a blender beats the twenty guys with dashboards who dont. still not deploying till 22.06 tho
one guy with a spreadsheet who publishes his losers still beats most funds on transparency. but yeah, tranche three hinges entirely on whether that 50d at 24.65 holds when something finally tests it
tranche three hinging on one line at 24.65 is a lot of drama for a 15k plan tbh. respect the transparency tho
nine trades plus a 15k deployment plan is still nine trades. respect the hold but lets not pretend the sample grew
quantfeeds_ nine trades and a 15k plan is how paper accounts become war stories. at 25.35 with adx under 15 the plan matters less than whether the 50d at 24.65 holds when something finally tests it
nine trades is a diary not a backtest, but the WAIT at 25.35 off a 31.98 high is at least consistent with the 47 percent drawdown math
a diary not a backtest, exactly. and the diary says wait, so at least the system is honest about its own uselessness right now
faith not stats is the honest read. nine trades at a 33 percent hit rate behind a 15k plan, the only number i trust is the 22.06 line
the tranche three debate is fun but the real tell is volume. nobody is testing 22.06 or the 50d at 24.65 with adx at 13.9, so the plan is basically a calendar right now
calendar is the right word. adx 13.9 means nobody is testing anything, set alerts at 22.06 and 24.65 and go touch grass