Deep Dive Analysis
World Liberty Financial (WLFI)
2026-10-25 17:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.05
0.05
52W HIGH
0.18
0.18
DRAWDOWN
-70.6%
-70.6%
STAGE
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
🔴 AVOID — DO NOT DEPLOY
Trend-Following System · MEDIUM Conviction · 0 Bull / 8 Bear Factors
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, MACD-, RSI weak (38.5), falling 1m & 3m, far below high
WLFI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.10
Low: 0.05
Now: 0.05
Low: 0.05
Now: 0.05
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 38.5 | ADX (14) | 11.2 |
| 50d MA | 0.06 | 200d MA | 0.06 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 0.05 | Resistance | 0.06 |
| ATR Volatility | 1.68%/day | Trend | SELL |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| WLFI | -3.9% | -10.2% | -11.8% | -47.5% |
| BTC | -6.9% | +3.6% | +22.8% | +17.0% |
| ETH | -14.1% | -5.0% | +30.8% | +17.2% |
| SOL | -16.5% | +6.3% | +38.2% | +17.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,098
RETURN
+0.7%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-4.5%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| WLFI | +0.7% | -21.5% | -4.5% | 11 | 54% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (WLFI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -47.5% | 11,779 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -10.9% | 13,366 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -9.0% | 13,651 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -8.1% | 13,783 |
WLFI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.05 (-3.4%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | 0.06 | +1.8% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 0.06 | +1.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 0.06 | -0.5% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 0.06 | +1.9% |
| 2026-09-26 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-27 | SELL | 0.06 | +2.1% |
| 2026-09-28 | BUY | 0.06 | |
| 2026-09-29 | SELL | 0.06 | -2.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-25 17:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
0 bull factors out of 8. even the 2 year backtest only cleared +0.7%, the system is politely telling you to walk away lol
54% win rate across 11 trades is a coin flip with extra steps. ADX at 11.2 means theres no trend to follow anyway
ADX 11.2 is the part nobody quotes. no trend means no edge, and a 54% win rate on 11 trades is literally noise dressed up as stats
this. ADX under 12 plus a sample of 11 trades, you could flip a coin at a bus stop and get the same edge. staying out
bought near the 0.18 top on the name alone. sitting at 0.05 now, hardest lesson of the year for my portfolio
0.18 to 0.05 is brutal but the 0.7 percent backtest was printed in the same piece. the warning label was right there and nobody read it
same, bought the 0.14 breakout story. a 2 year backtest clearing +0.7% while price sits 72% off the high says everything about the signal quality here
a 15,000 deployment plan with 0 bull factors out of 8. respect for publishing it anyway instead of forcing some hedge into the conclusion