TL;DR
- Bitcoin dropped below $113,000 on October 28, 2025, failing to hold above $116,000 for the second consecutive session.
- The S&P 500 hit 6,900 and the Nasdaq set a new all-time high, creating a stark divergence with crypto markets.
- Ether fell 4% back below $4,000, while Solana and Litecoin each shed nearly 4%.
- Bitfinex analysts warned that BTC failing to hold above the short-term holder cost basis at $113,600 could trigger a deeper pullback to $97,500.
- Nvidia surged 5% to approach a $5 trillion market cap, with analysts suggesting capital rotated from crypto into tech equities.
The cryptocurrency market faced a sharp selloff on October 28, 2025, as Bitcoin once again failed to sustain momentum above the $116,000 resistance level. The largest digital asset by market capitalization traded as low as $112,700 during the U.S. afternoon session, marking a near 2% decline over 24 hours and repeating a pattern identical to Monday’s failed breakout attempt.
The decline is particularly notable given the strength in traditional equity markets. The S&P 500 crossed 6,900 for the first time in history, and the Nasdaq Composite also clinched a fresh record. Nvidia led the charge, gaining 5% to approach a staggering $5 trillion valuation as CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote address at the GPU Technology Conference. The contrast between surging equities and faltering crypto paints a clear picture: capital appears to be flowing toward the AI-driven tech rally at the expense of digital assets.
Bitcoin’s Repeated Rejection at $116K
Bitcoin’s price action on October 28 followed a now-familiar script. After climbing above $116,000 earlier in the session — with intraday highs reaching approximately $116,200 — sellers stepped in aggressively during U.S. trading hours. The resulting selloff dragged BTC back below $113,000, nearly mirroring the previous day’s reversal pattern.
As of the close of trading, Bitcoin changed hands at approximately $112,700, representing a decline of just under 2% over the preceding 24 hours. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at roughly $3.87 trillion, down 0.46% over the same period, according to CoinMarketCap data. Trading volumes remained moderate, suggesting the selloff was driven more by a lack of buyer conviction than aggressive short selling.
The repeated failure at $116,000 raises questions about whether Bitcoin has enough momentum to push higher in the near term. Each rejection at this level weakens the bullish thesis and increases the likelihood of a more sustained pullback.
Broad Crypto Market Weakness
The selling pressure was not limited to Bitcoin. Ether (ETH) fell 4%, dropping back below the psychologically significant $4,000 level. Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) each declined nearly 4%, while Hedera (HBAR) surrendered roughly half of its ETF-related gains from the previous session. Despite the listing of three new spot crypto ETFs in the United States — Solana, Hedera, and Litecoin — the market showed little enthusiasm, with the ETF launches failing to provide any meaningful lift.
Crypto-related equities also suffered. Mining companies that have pivoted toward AI infrastructure, including Bitfarms (BITF), CleanSpark (CLSK), Hive (HIVE), and IREN, closed 4% to 5% lower. Galaxy Digital (GLXY) fell 8% amid a $1.15 billion capital raise, while Strategy (MSTR), the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, declined 3.7%.
The Nvidia Effect: Capital Rotation in Plain Sight
Perhaps the most telling dynamic on October 28 was the inverse correlation between Nvidia’s rally and crypto’s decline. As Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang outlined the company’s AI vision at the GPU Technology Conference, the stock surged to new records, briefly approaching a $5 trillion market capitalization. The sheer scale of capital concentration in a single stock appeared to draw liquidity away from risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
This phenomenon is not entirely new — major tech rallies have historically created short-term headwinds for crypto — but the magnitude of Nvidia’s move made the divergence impossible to ignore. When a single stock commands that much institutional attention and capital allocation, smaller markets like crypto tend to feel the squeeze.
Technical Warning Signs Flash Red
Analysts at Bitfinex issued a cautionary note in their latest report, highlighting that Bitcoin’s short-term holder cost basis at $113,600 has become a critical pivot point. Trading above this level has historically marked the transition from corrective phases to accumulation phases, and the failure to hold it suggests that the October 10-11 crash correction may not yet be over.
“If Bitcoin fails to sustain above $113,600, the risk of a deeper retracement to near $97,500 — the likely lower bound of the current consolidation range — increases significantly,” the Bitfinex analysts warned. That represents a potential further decline of roughly 14% from current levels.
On-chain data from Glassnode supports a cautious outlook. Participation and on-chain activity remain muted, with the analytics firm noting that “until conviction deepens and demand broadens, Bitcoin is likely to remain in rangebound consolidation, with cautious optimism beginning to replace defensive positioning.”
Why This Matters
The October 28 selloff underscores a critical juncture for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin’s inability to break above $116,000 despite favorable macro conditions — including optimism around potential U.S. rate cuts and easing trade tensions — suggests that the digital asset market may need a stronger catalyst to push higher. The divergence with record-setting equity markets, driven by the AI boom, raises questions about whether crypto can compete for institutional capital in the current environment. Traders and investors should monitor the $113,600 short-term holder cost basis closely; a sustained break below this level could open the door to a much deeper correction. The information presented in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
S&P 500 hitting 6,900 while BTC fails at $116K for the second day in a row is the divergence trade of the year. Capital clearly rotating from crypto into the AI rally via Nvidia. Jensen Huang approaching $5T market cap while BTC dumps below $113K tells you where the momentum money went.
The short-term holder cost basis at $113,600 is the line in the sand. Bitfinex warning about a potential pullback to $97,500 if that level breaks is sobering. ETH dropping 4% back below $4K with SOL and LTC shedding the same amount confirms broad risk-off across crypto.
Nvidia gaining 5% to approach $5T valuation while crypto bleeds is the clearest signal yet that risk appetite has not disappeared, it just moved to a different asset class. BTC needs to reclaim $113,600 or the short-term holder cost basis crowd will start panic selling.
The double rejection at $116K with identical intraday patterns screams distribution. Same high, same afternoon selloff, same close near $112,700. Someone is unloading size at that resistance level. The Nasdaq record high just makes the crypto weakness more painful for multi-asset portfolios.
Bitfinex calling $97,500 as the downside target if $113,600 breaks is based on the short-term holder cost basis model. That model has been remarkably accurate in past cycles. The fact that we tested $116,200 and failed twice makes the lower probability scenario more likely now.