Deep Dive Analysis
Falcon USD (USDF)
2026-09-14 16:00 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.14
2.14
52W HIGH
2.52
2.52
DRAWDOWN
-14.9%
-14.9%
STAGE
Stage 3 (Topping)
Stage 3 (Topping)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 1 Bull / 5 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: RSI healthy (55.7)
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, death cross, 50d falling, vol 20.0x on down day
USDF Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 2.14
Low: 1.26
Now: 2.14
Low: 1.26
Now: 2.14
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 55.7 | ADX (14) | 10.3 |
| 50d MA | 2.14 | 200d MA | 2.14 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | 2.14 | Resistance | 2.14 |
| ATR Volatility | 0.0%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| USDF | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| BTC | -0.7% | +26.0% | -3.7% | -16.3% |
| ETH | +0.7% | +40.9% | +6.3% | -24.2% |
| SOL | +3.0% | +35.6% | +13.9% | -28.1% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
15,000
RETURN
+0.0%
MAX DRAWDOWN
0.0%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| USDF | +0.0% | +0.0% | 0.0% | 0 | 0% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (USDF)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +0.0% | 15,000 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +0.0% | 15,000 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -0.0% | 15,000 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -0.0% | 15,000 |
USDF Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 2.14 (0.0%) |
| Target 1 | 2.00 (-6.6%) |
| Target 2 | 2.00 (-6.6%) |
| Entry quality | Unknown (R:R None) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-14 16:00 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
a 2 year backtest with 0 trades and +0.0% return might be the most honest analysis ive read all week. even the system said no thanks lmao
lmao the backtest tapping out with zero trades is peak stablecoin content. 2.4% drawdown from 2.52 and vol spikes on red candles, id be sitting on my hands too
0 trades in 2 years is the stablecoin thesis working as intended tbh. boring is the whole product
a death cross on a dollarcoin chart is peak comedy tbh. the trend goblins got lost on their way to nvda
death cross on a dollarcoin chart and the chartists still showed up to work. HOLD on a book this thin is just polite for dont touch it
Agreed, though that 20x volume spike on a down day is the one detail worth watching. Someone sizeable sold and price barely moved. That is strange for a token this thin.
zero trades because the system found no edge on a coin that barely moves. most honest HOLD ever printed
A 2.4% drawdown on a token meant to track a dollar is a wobble, and on a 12k deployment that still stings. HOLD is fair but that number would spook me out of adding size.
vol 20x on a down day is the part that spooks me. HOLD verdict feels generous with that sitting in the bear column
1 bull vs 5 bear factors and the call is still basically do nothing. the system is honest, that counts for something these days
1 bull vs 5 bear and it still says WAIT instead of forcing a trade. more honesty here than half the analysts on my timeline
someone probably tested the peg, that happens with thin stablecoins on down days. watch the redeem queue over the next 48h before panicking
48h on the redeem queue is generous, a real peg test clears in hours. thin book tho so fair point
a redeem queue clearing in hours on a book this thin, good luck with that. the 20x vol candle probably was the test and it got absorbed
the 20x candle being the actual redemption test is the funniest outcome possible. book so thin the chart is basically one wallets diary
20x vol on twenty dollars of daily volume is still nothing. the spook factor is real but absolute size says one wallet moved and nobody else noticed
twenty dollars of daily volume lmao, that 20x candle is one guy and a rounding error. charting this thing is astrology at this point
one wallet selling into nothing and price barely moving is actually a decent sign for the peg. real tests show up in the redemption queue, not on candles
Candles absorbing a thin book sell is fine until the redemption queue is the thing that moves. Agreed the real test never shows up on the chart
one wallet selling into nothing and the peg not moving is quietly the best data point USDF has printed. the proof is the redeem queue clearing in hours, not the candles
Death cross plus 50d falling and they still call it Stage 3 instead of 4. RSI at 55.7 is the only thing keeping this alive honestly
^ that RSI is lagging so hard, wait til it catches the price action below the 200d
A coin named Falcon USD sitting at 2.14 with a death cross is accidentally the funniest chart of the year. The HOLD is just the system admitting it has nothing.
a token named Falcon USD sitting at 2.14 is doing a lot of work for that name lol. hold and let the peg prove itself i guess
HOLD with a 15k deployment plan on something doing twenty bucks of daily volume. the system is being very nice about a liquidity desert