Deep Dive Analysis
Flare (FLR)
2026-09-23 09:30 UTC · Elena Kowalski · 12,000 Portfolio
PRICE
0.01
0.01
52W HIGH
0.04
0.04
DRAWDOWN
-80.4%
-80.4%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 10 Bull / 2 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (68.2), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 38.9), breakout above upper band, vol 1.98x on up day, accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.24)
Bearish factors: death cross, far below high
FLR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Low: 0.01
Now: 0.01
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 68.2 | ADX (14) | 38.9 |
| 50d MA | 0.01 | 200d MA | 0.01 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 0.01 | Resistance | 0.01 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.18%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| FLR | +12.7% | +10.6% | -19.9% | -34.7% |
| BTC | +11.4% | +29.6% | +6.3% | -11.1% |
| ETH | +13.6% | +42.5% | +20.5% | -18.1% |
| SOL | +18.0% | +51.1% | +28.1% | -19.6% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 12,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,864
RETURN
-26.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-35.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| FLR | -26.1% | -50.2% | -35.9% | 50 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (FLR)
If you had deployed 12,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | -34.7% | 3,615 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -26.2% | 8,862 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -22.9% | 9,258 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -19.8% | 9,621 |
FLR Deployment Plan — 12,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Elena Kowalski (Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value). If you’re managing a 12,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,000 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 0.01 (-14.1%) |
| Target 1 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Target 2 | 0.00 (-100.0%) |
| Entry quality | Extended (R:R 0.89) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Aggressive / Contrarian / Deep-Value.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-09 | SELL | 0.01 | -2.0% |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 0.01 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 0.01 | -5.1% |
| 2026-09-17 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-18 | SELL | 0.01 | +3.2% |
| 2026-09-19 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-20 | SELL | 0.01 | -0.8% |
| 2026-09-21 | BUY | 0.01 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 0.01 | +8.1% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-23 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
12,000 becomes 8,864 in their own two year backtest and the verdict is still BUY at HIGH conviction lol. at least they published the number i guess
The -26% backtest includes the death cross exits dragging through chop. The live signal is the 10 bull vs 2 bear factors with ADX at 38.9, that trend strength is real
8,864 after two years is still better than my FLR bag since the airdrop tbh. at least the backtest is honest about sucking
same, held my airdrop bag the whole way down. seeing 8,864 spelled out in a table almost feels nostalgic at this point
been holding since the FTSO airdrop days, an 80% drawdown with price above both the 50d and 200d is the most FLR thing ever. vol 1.98x on an up day tho, someone is finally buying
RSI at 68.2 and they still call it healthy? usually that window is where the pullback starts, not where i deploy 12k
RSI at 68.2 and they still call it healthy? usually that window is where the pullback starts, not where i deploy 12k
RSI at 68.2 is already stretched. I bought Flare in 2023 and watched it do nothing for a year. Stage 2 uptrend or not, I want a pullback toward support first
waiting for a pullback in a Stage 2 breakout with 2x volume is how you end up chasing at the top instead lol
FLR is down 34.7% on the year while ETH and SOL are green, and the takeaway is BUY. Bold.
the system trades the breakout not the calendar year. FLR down 34.7 while flashing ADX 38.9 is exactly the setup where trend following eats mean reversion alive
death cross on a 0.01 token is basically decoration tho. FLR either trends or chops, ADX 38.9 says its actually trending for once
decoration is generous. FLR death crossed in spring and then chopped sideways for months anyway, the signal and the price stopped talking to each other a while ago
trend following a coin down 34.7 percent is literally the thesis. you buy the regime change, not the trailing twelve month number
the OBV accumulation + 1.98x volume on the breakout day is the part that matters imo, ADX 38.9 is a real trend not chop
fair, but death cross still active under all of that. mixed signals at best
ADX at 38.9 matters for FLR specifically because this thing spends most of its life chopping under 0.02. A real trend signal here is rare enough to respect, death cross or not.
Death cross active under a Stage 2 signal, 8,864 on a two year backtest, and the call is still BUY. Credit to the table for publishing all of it at least.
publishing the 8,864 is the whole credibility play. most signal sellers would have rounded that two year backtest into a win somehow
publishing the 8,864 is honest but nobody sits with what it implies. two years of following the signals left you down a quarter, the HIGH conviction label is doing a lot of lifting
the label is free tho. 10 bull vs 2 bear factors does more persuading than any conviction tag ever will
held flare since the drop itself. ADX 38.9 is the first real trend print this thing has had since the ftso hype days, watching this one closely
RSI 68.2 with ADX 38.9 is the exact window trend systems are built for. the pullback crowd keeps applying mean reversion math to a regime change, sized half and watching 0.011
max drawdown of 35.9% in the backtest and the plan still opens at 12k lump. the numbers are honest, the sizing is the problem