Bitcoin is closing out its worst January since the 2018 crypto winter, and analysts at JP Morgan are sounding the alarm. In a note to investors on January 31, the Wall Street giant warned that both Bitcoin and Ethereum face significant headwinds, even as the current market correction appears less severe than last May’s dramatic collapse.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin posted its worst January since 2018, declining more than 18% during the month
- BTC dropped to as low as $33,000 in January from an all-time high near $69,000 in November
- JP Morgan analysts warn that Bitcoin’s volatility — five times that of gold — hinders institutional adoption
- Ethereum is losing market share to competitors like Solana, Terra, and Binance Smart Chain in DeFi and NFTs
- Digital asset investment products saw outflows averaging $88 million per week in January
The numbers paint a grim picture for crypto’s leading assets. Bitcoin spent 65% of January’s trading days in decline, recording only 11 up days for the entire month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The cryptocurrency fell as much as 2.9% on Monday alone, touching $36,680 before recovering to trade around $38,483 at the daily close. Ether fared even worse, dropping roughly 30% since the end of December.
The Volatility Problem
JP Morgan’s analysts zeroed in on what they see as the most persistent obstacle to Bitcoin’s mainstream acceptance: extreme volatility. Bitcoin is currently five times more volatile than gold, a comparison that undermines the popular narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” — a reliable store of value and hedge against inflation.
“We think the biggest challenge for Bitcoin going forward is its volatility and the boom and bust cycles that hinder further institutional adoption,” the JP Morgan note stated. The analysis comes as Bitcoin trades roughly 44% below its November all-time high of $69,044.
Goldman Sachs analysts Zach Pandl and Isabella Rosenberg offered some historical context, noting that Bitcoin’s approximately 50% decline from its November peak sits at “the low end of the range” compared to past drawdowns. Since 2011, there have been five major Bitcoin pullbacks from all-time highs, with an average peak-to-trough decline of 77% lasting seven to eight months on average. The most severe, a 93% collapse, occurred in 2011.
Ethereum’s Competitive Pressure
If Bitcoin’s challenge is volatility, Ethereum’s is competition. JP Morgan highlighted that Ethereum has been losing market capitalization share to rival blockchains, particularly in the decentralized finance and non-fungible token sectors that were once its exclusive domain.
“What has been striking during this month’s correction is that Ethereum has not managed to re-capture market cap share vs. its main competitors as its price declined by a similar magnitude to smaller altcoins,” the analysts wrote.
Networks like Solana, Terra, and Binance Smart Chain have gained significant traction by offering faster and cheaper alternatives to Ethereum’s increasingly congested network. Solana, despite suffering a 17-hour network outage in September, has maintained its position as the seventh-largest cryptocurrency with a price around $99.74 and a market cap exceeding $31 billion.
Fed Policy Drives the Selloff
The broader market downturn is being driven primarily by macroeconomic factors. Growing conviction that the Federal Reserve will soon begin raising interest rates has triggered a selloff across risk assets, with crypto bearing the brunt due to its higher risk profile.
According to a report from CryptoCompare, digital asset investment products have experienced outflows for the first time since August, with weekly outflows averaging $88 million in January. Total assets under management for Bitcoin products have fallen 23% since December, reflecting both price declines and investor withdrawals.
“Crypto is a very volatile asset class — and I hope that everyone participating in that market is aware of the volatility potential,” said Troy Gayeski, chief market strategist at FS Investments. “It’s a much trickier environment than it was six months ago, 12 months ago, 18 months ago where it was ‘green-light go.’ Now it’s ‘yellow-light caution.'”
The memories of 2018’s crypto winter — when Bitcoin fell roughly 80% and took more than a year to recover — continue to cast a long shadow over the market. Many newer investors who entered during the 2021 bull run are now facing their first extended drawdown, raising concerns about broader market sentiment.
Adding to the pressure, the International Monetary Fund has urged El Salvador to strip Bitcoin of its legal tender status, citing concerns about financial stability and consumer protection risks associated with the cryptocurrency’s volatility.
Why This Matters
JP Morgan’s assessment cuts to the heart of crypto’s ongoing identity crisis. For Bitcoin to truly become a mainstream institutional asset, it needs to shed its reputation for wild price swings. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s eroding market share in DeFi and NFTs suggests that the smart contract platform wars are far from settled. The combination of tightening monetary policy and increasing competition means that 2022 is shaping up to be a defining year for which projects — and which narratives — will survive the winter.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
JP Morgan calling crypto volatile while their own stock swings 5% on earnings miss. cool cool cool
$88 million weekly outflows sounds scary until you remember total AUM was in the tens of billions. this was a nothingburger in hindsight
tbtf_skeptic 88M weekly outflows against tens of billions AUM was literally a rounding error. JPM knew that when they published the note
JP Morgan calling btc volatile while JPM stock dropped 5% on a single earnings miss in Q1 2024. pot meet kettle
macro_cynic the JPM stock dropping 5pct on one earnings miss while calling btc volatile is peak irony. volatility is relative and their balance sheet wasnt exactly calm waters
JP calling btc volatile at 33k while it proceeded to do a 3x within 15 months. wall street research notes are contrarian indicators at this point
ETH losing market share to Terra and BSC in early 2022. we all know how that turned out for Terra. maybe the analysis was missing something
JP putting terra in the same sentence as solana and bsc as eth competitors. one of those was a house of cards and they couldnt tell which
hindsight_alpha ETH losing share to Terra in a JPM report published weeks before Terra collapsed is genuinely peak Wall Street analysis
hindsight_alpha ETH losing share to Terra is the funniest part. JPM analysts couldnt spot an algo in a room full of algos
ETH losing share to Terra in the JP Morgan note aged like milk. Terra was literally weeks from collapse when they published this
Wei L. the Terra call aged like milk left in the sun. JPM analysts literally couldnt distinguish a sustainable protocol from an algo ponzi sitting right in front of them
jpmorgan warning about btc volatility while their own analysts were recommending clients buy crypto etfs months earlier. pick a lane jamie
eth losing defi market share to terra and bsc turned out to be prophetic. terra imploded but bsc stuck around
btc being 5x more volatile than gold was the bear case? its been 15 years and thats still true. thats the whole point of asymmetric upside
eth bleeding market share to solana and terra right before terra imploded is peak irony looking back
btc worst january since 2018 and it still ended up fine. these wall street research notes age so poorly
my favorite wall street research game: find the JPM note, do the opposite. they called btc volatile at 33k and it 3x’d within 15 months. classic fade material
contrarian_bag the JPM fade strategy has worked for 5 years running. they called btc dead at 4K in 2018 and volatile at 33K in 2022. both were buys
contrarian_bag the JPM fade strategy is genuinely profitable. called btc volatile at 33K right before it 3x’d. institutional research notes are momentum indicators not analysis
btc spent 65% of january trading days red and still bottomed within weeks. classic shakeout pattern that Wall Street always misreads
Piotr Walek the 65% red days stat is cherry picked tho. matters more what the magnitude of those red days was vs the green ones
BTC five times more volatile than gold and JP Morgan acts like thats a bug. its literally the feature. no volatility no upside
JPM recommending ETH competitors including Terra weeks before it collapsed is the kind of analysis you get from a bank that doesnt understand the assets they cover