The cryptocurrency market continued its dismal start to the fourth quarter of 2018, with total market capitalization shedding 1.9% over 24 hours to slip below $216 billion on October 4. The sell-off came as one of the most prominent voices in the space, former Goldman Sachs macro trader Michael Novogratz, publicly walked back his bullish Bitcoin price targets for the year.
TL;DR
- Bitcoin dropped 1.1% to around $6,494, with total market cap falling to approximately $112.4 billion
- Ethereum tumbled 3.3% to $219.69, while XRP and Bitcoin Cash also posted losses exceeding 3%
- Michael Novogratz cut his 2018 Bitcoin forecast from $40,000 to under $9,000
- Only Tether (USDT) traded in positive territory among the top 20 cryptocurrencies
- Novogratz remains bullish long-term, predicting institutional money will arrive in 2019
Novogratz Reverses Course on 2018 Projections
Michael Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs partner turned cryptocurrency investor, had been one of the loudest bulls during the 2017 rally. In late 2017, he publicly predicted that Bitcoin would reach $40,000 within 2018. Speaking to CNBC in early October, Novogratz admitted that those projections were no longer realistic, stating he did not expect the leading cryptocurrency to surpass $9,000 before year-end.
The revision was significant not just for the scale of the downgrade but for what it signaled about broader market sentiment. Bitcoin had been trading in a tight range around $6,500 for several weeks, unable to mount a sustained breakout despite occasional brief rallies above $6,800. At the time of Novogratz’s comments, BTC was changing hands at approximately $6,494, representing a 67% decline from its all-time high near $20,000 reached in December 2017.
Broad Market Decline Across All Major Assets
The market-wide sell-off on October 4 left virtually no asset unscathed. Ethereum suffered a steeper decline than Bitcoin, falling 3.3% to $219.69 with a market capitalization of just under $22.5 billion. XRP mirrored ETH’s 3.3% decline, dropping to $0.5251, while Bitcoin Cash slid 4.3% to $514.08.
EOS was one of the relative outperformers, declining just 1.2% to $5.59, while Stellar (XLM) fell 4.6%, Litecoin (LTC) dropped 4.2%, Cardano (ADA) slipped 3.2%, and Monero (XMR) was down 2.5%. Among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, only Tether (USDT) managed a modest gain of 0.2%, serving its intended purpose as a safe haven during market turbulence.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at roughly $215.9 billion according to CoinMarketCap data, a far cry from the peak above $800 billion reached in early January 2018. The crypto winter was in full force, with trading volumes remaining subdued across major exchanges.
Institutional Optimism Persists Despite Short-Term Pessimism
Despite cutting his near-term forecast, Novogratz maintained his conviction that the broader trajectory remained positive. He predicted that Bitcoin would reclaim the $10,000 level by the end of the first half of 2019, driven by the entry of institutional capital into the market.
He suggested that the same fear-of-missing-out dynamic that propelled Bitcoin toward $20,000 in late 2017 could return once institutional infrastructure matured. Several developments seemed to support this thesis: regulated exchanges and custodial solutions were under development, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had begun establishing formal frameworks for engaging with the digital asset industry, including the launch of its Strategic Hub for Innovation and Financial Technology, known as FinHub, during October 2018.
What the Data Showed
CoinMarketCap’s historical snapshot for October 4, 2018 painted a clear picture of a market in consolidation. Bitcoin’s dominance stood strong with a market cap of approximately $113.8 billion at a price of $6,576.69. Ethereum held second place at $222.22 per token, with a total valuation of $22.7 billion. The top five were rounded out by XRP at $0.5266, Bitcoin Cash at $513.03, and EOS at $5.77.
The seven-day performance metrics were even more telling: Bitcoin Cash had plunged nearly 9% over the prior week, Litecoin was down more than 8%, and Stellar had lost 6%. Only TRON (TRX) showed a positive weekly return at +0.84%, largely driven by mainnet development milestones.
Why This Matters
Novogratz’s forecast revision on October 4, 2018 was a watershed moment for the crypto market psychology. When one of the most visible institutional advocates publicly scales back expectations, it signals that the bear market had eroded even the most optimistic convictions. However, his insistence that institutional money would arrive proved prescient: within months, firms like Fidelity and ICE (through Bakkt) would announce crypto custody and trading services, setting the stage for the eventual market recovery. For investors tracking market sentiment, this date marked the point where short-term realism and long-term bullishness began to coexist in the institutional narrative.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Novogratz went from 40k to under 9k in 2018 and BTC bottomed at 3200 two months later. classic CEO capitulation signal
macro_relic_ and then he launched Galaxy Digital which proceeded to dump alongside everything else. guy timed literally nothing correctly
40K to 9K forecast cut after BTC already at 6.5K. Novogratz was basically reading the chart backwards and calling it analysis
forecast_grave_ LP letters from Galaxy that quarter must have been pure copium. still charging 2 and 20 while marking everything down 80pct
Novogratz going from 40K to under 9K and BTC bottoming at 3200 two months later. the forecast cut was capitulation not analysis. classic CEO calling the bottom by giving up
only USDT green during a 216B market dump. stablecoins proving their use case while everything else cratered
guy ran a crypto fund the entire way down from 40K predictions to 3200 bottom. imagine the LP letters in Q4 2018. LPs paid 2 and 20 for negative alpha
novogratz going from $40k to under $9k in one year is the most honest thing a crypto bull has ever done. respect
respect for admitting he was wrong but his fund still collected fees the whole way down. retail paid for his conviction
His fund still collected fees while retail got wrecked. ‘Honest’ crypto bulls still find ways to profit from their mistakes
guy went from 40k to 9k in 10 months and still ran a crypto fund. imagine the LP letters
Tariq M. the LP letters from Galaxy in 2018 must have been brutal. 40k to 9k forecast revision while collecting 2/20 fees. institutional crypto was a grift back then
honest? he was shilling his own fund the whole way down. the forecast cut was damage control not honesty
basically. every forecast cut conveniently happened after the market already proved him wrong
novogratz cutting to under 9k after btc already crashed there is not a forecast, its a rearview mirror. guy got paid either way
eth at 219 in oct 2018 was the actual bottom. novogratz cutting to 9k was him panicking not forecasting
goldman_refugee_ ETH at 219 was the bottom and Novogratz called 9k BTC right after. guy was bearish at the exact bottom every time. contrarian indicator
bag_therapy yeah 1.9 percent daily drop on top of the big loss hurt everyone
Novogratz called 40k BTC when it was trading at 6.4k. Galaxy Digital stock was down 70pct that year and he was still collecting management fees from LPs who trusted the 40k call. wild
cutting the forecast after the drawdown is the most lagging indicator in this business. by the time a manager revises down, the pain trade is usually already done
eth at $219… if you told someone then itd be $3500 in a few years theyd think you were insane
novogratz dropping forecast to under 9k when btc sat at 6494 feels brutal
eth at $219 and xrp and bch dropping 3% daily. 2018 was absolute carnage after the ico bubble popped
Novogratz cutting his forecast after BTC already crashed to those levels isn’t being honest, it’s being irrelevant
bull_market_vet the 216b wipe matches what happened that week with eth at 219