Deep Dive Analysis
NEAR Protocol (NEAR)
2026-09-13 16:02 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
2.29
2.29
52W HIGH
8.24
8.24
DRAWDOWN
-72.2%
-72.2%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟢 DEPLOY — Trend-Following Signal: BUY
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 9 Bull / 1 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, MACD+, RSI healthy (59.8), rising 1m & 3m, strong bull trend (ADX 47.4), accumulation (OBV up, vol ratio 1.35)
Bearish factors: far below high
NEAR Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 1.78
Low: 0.86
Now: 2.29
Low: 0.86
Now: 2.29
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 59.8 | ADX (14) | 47.4 |
| 50d MA | 1.86 | 200d MA | 1.72 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 1.57 | Resistance | 2.71 |
| ATR Volatility | 7.23%/day | Trend | BUY |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| NEAR | +13.6% | +21.1% | +76.4% | +28.7% |
| BTC | -0.8% | +21.0% | -4.7% | -17.9% |
| ETH | +1.0% | +37.8% | +5.4% | -22.9% |
| SOL | +5.3% | +30.7% | +16.4% | -27.2% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
8,958
RETURN
-40.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-59.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| NEAR | -40.3% | -13.6% | -59.9% | 55 | 44% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (NEAR)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +28.7% | 12,673 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +25.3% | 18,790 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +25.1% | 18,768 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +36.9% | 20,533 |
NEAR Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 1.96 (-14.5%) |
| Target 1 | 3.00 (31.1%) |
| Target 2 | 3.00 (31.1%) |
| Entry quality | Midrange (R:R 1.5) |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-05-14 | BUY | 1.57 | |
| 2026-05-15 | SELL | 1.54 | -1.8% |
| 2026-05-16 | BUY | 1.50 | |
| 2026-05-17 | SELL | 1.51 | +0.5% |
| 2026-05-18 | BUY | 1.62 | |
| 2026-05-19 | SELL | 1.60 | -1.4% |
| 2026-05-20 | BUY | 1.70 | |
| 2026-05-21 | SELL | 1.92 | +13.2% |
| 2026-05-26 | BUY | 2.54 | |
| 2026-06-23 | SELL | 1.98 | -22.2% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 1.97 | |
| END | SELL | 2.29 | +16.4% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-09-13 16:02 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
vol ratio 1.35 with price above the 200d is the part that matters, last cycle there was zero accumulation. small size here, add on the retest
the one bear factor being distance from the high is basically the upside case on near. 9 bull factors with the 8.24 top sitting up there as room
9 bull factors, 1 bear, and the bear is just far below high. near at 2.29 vs 8.24 top… seen this movie before
seen this movie before except last cycle there was zero accumulation on obv. vol ratio 1.35 is the part everyone skips
the obv accumulation is the actual difference from last cycle, the 2024 run had zero footprints. still not going full size into a 7 percent daily atr tho
the obv point is fair but at 2.29 with 7 percent atr days, one green candle is a 5 percent portfolio event lol. grid bot territory
Grid bot territory is right, 2.29 with 7 percent atr days just means your entry barely matters, the sizing does
7.23% atr a day means support at 1.57 might as well be in another country lol. adx 47 is spicy tho
adx 47 is also how you get trend exhaustion in two weeks. still long from 1.9 tho lol
exactly, adx 47 on near usually means two more green weeks max then a 20 percent air pocket. trailing stop and enjoy the ride
air pocket truther here, got chopped out of the last near run at 3.40 waiting for exhaustion that showed up three weeks later
3.40 chopout survivor club keeps growing. the 7.23 percent atr says size small, adx 47 says the trend is real, both can be true at once
chopout survivor here too, bailed at 3.20 waiting for exhaustion that never printed. adx 47 with obv actually rising is the one combo we never got last cycle
Two green weeks then an air pocket is still two green weeks. I will take the tranche exits and let the 1.57 crowd argue about the bottom.
difference this time is obv actually accumulating before the cross, last cycle price ran on fumes. the vol ratio 1.35 people keep quoting is the quiet bullish stat
golden cross with price above the 200d while still 72% off the top is my favorite setup. rsi 59 leaves room to run too
golden cross setup is fine but 7 percent daily atr is what actually decides your entry price. half size until the 2.0 retest, add only if it holds
the DCA table is the interesting part, 12 buys did +36.9% vs +28.7% lump sum. on something with 7% daily atr that tracks
the 36.9 vs 28.7 spread on the DCA table gets even wider the higher the atr goes. on a coin that once printed 8.24 im letting the grid do the work lol
that 36.9 vs 28.7 spread gets even fatter once you count the wicks. 7 percent atr days fill limit orders nobody would place sober lol
half the thread arguing about atr and the 1.35 vol ratio barely gets mentioned. thats the actual tell, someone is buying near while its quiet
irkalla_ on the 1.35 vol ratio, finally someone read past the atr. quiet accumulation into a buy rating is the only bullish signal in the whole writeup
quiet accumulation at 2.29 while the whole thread argues atr is the oldest bull tell there is. if the 2.0 retest holds the vol ratio crowd gets the victory lap
9 bull factors and the single bear is distance from 8.24. if the 2.0 retest holds the whole bear column evaporates, thats the only level that matters
2.0 is the line but 9 bull factors vs 1 bear already tells you which side the model leans. the retest is just confirmation theater
2.0 is the level, agreed. but the 36.9 vs 28.7 dca spread only works if you actually keep buying through the air pocket, most people here wont
obv rising into a golden cross with vol ratio 1.35 is a different tape than 2024, ill give them that. still sizing like the 7 percent atr is real, because it is