Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) has slipped back below the one-cent mark, dropping nearly 10% over 24 hours to trade around 0.0098 USD on Sept. 24, even as the token remains roughly 38% higher over the past seven days. The pullback arrives just days after PENGU touched its highest price in several months, and market data suggests the retreat has more to do with cooling derivatives exposure than any single project-specific event.
CoinGecko data showed PENGU trading near 0.0098 USD at the latest check, with a 24-hour range between 0.009478 and 0.01111 USD. The token’s market capitalization stood near 619 million USD, while 24-hour trading volume came in at approximately 376 million USD. For context, Bitcoin traded near 84,128 USD and Ethereum near 2,669.85 USD at the same snapshot.
The weekly chart still tells a bullish story. PENGU climbed from 0.00685 USD on Sept. 15 to above 0.010 USD earlier this week, with CoinGecko recording the token at 0.00726 USD on Sept. 17 and 0.01003 USD by Sept. 22. That acceleration pushed PENGU into the 0.011 USD area before sellers stepped in and forced the price back under the psychologically watched one-cent level.
Despite the recovery, PENGU remains approximately 85% below its all-time high of 0.06845 USD, with a circulating supply of roughly 62.86 billion tokens. No single verified project-specific event reviewed for this report established the cause of Thursday’s drop. Instead, the decline occurred after PENGU reached a multi-month price high and after derivatives participation began to cool.
Derivatives activity unwinds as open interest falls
A Sept. 24 CoinGlass snapshot showed derivatives volume down 12.68% at approximately 536.67 million USD, while open interest declined 11.66% to roughly 154.03 million USD. A later live reading placed open interest near 156.47 million USD and 24-hour futures volume around 576.31 million USD, illustrating how quickly those figures can shift intraday.
CoinGlass also recorded nearly 1.94 million USD in PENGU futures liquidations over 24 hours during the later reading. Falling open interest means fewer futures positions remain outstanding, although CoinGlass notes that position closures can result from voluntary exits or forced liquidations and do not identify a single directional cause.
Spot flows looked far less decisive. The Sept. 24 CoinGlass netflow reading stood near positive 88,550 USD, meaning exchange inflows were only slightly above outflows. The recent flow series contained both positive and negative readings without a sustained run of large positive inflows — hardly the profile of a mass exit by holders.
Technical indicators stay constructive but stretched
PENGU’s 14-period RSI stood at 67.15 in the chart data provided for Sept. 24. The reading remains above the neutral 50 level and below the conventional 70 overbought threshold, signaling strong momentum without formally entering overbought territory. The RSI moving average sat near 50.56.
The Aroon Oscillator read approximately positive 57.14, indicating that recent highs have formed more prominently than recent lows over its 14-period window. Both measures remained positive despite the rejection above 0.010 USD.
On the downside, the 0.0095 USD region sits close to the token’s Sept. 24 intraday low of 0.009478 USD recorded by CoinGecko. A loss of that area would place PENGU below short-term support, while a recovery above 0.0105 USD would move the price back toward its recent highs.
Analysts watch 0.011 USD before higher targets
Crypto analyst Ali Charts has pointed to several weekly indicators he views as constructive. His Sept. 22 analysis identified contracting Bollinger Bands, consecutive Tom DeMark Sequential buy signals, a bullish Parabolic SAR flip and a SuperTrend buy signal. Ali wrote that the “PENGU bull run is about to start” while placing the midpoint of a parallel channel around 0.025 USD and its upper boundary close to 0.045 USD. Both levels are analyst projections, not confirmed price outcomes.
Two days later, Ali compared PENGU’s structure with an earlier PEPE cycle and suggested the token was “about to explode.” That comparison relies on a historical price fractal, meaning a similar past pattern does not establish that PENGU will follow PEPE’s previous trajectory.
Crypto Patel presented a different set of levels, identifying approximately 0.009 USD as a confirmed breakout zone and 0.0055 USD as higher-timeframe support. His projected levels were 0.015, 0.028, 0.043 and 0.060 USD if PENGU confirms a break and retest of its descending higher-timeframe trendline. Patel stressed the need for confirmation, writing that he does not want to chase a candle and instead wants to see a clean break. His 0.060 USD scenario represents a forecast based on technical structure rather than a verified future price.
Consumer pipeline keeps building behind the token
While PENGU trades through the current volatility, Pudgy Penguins has continued expanding its consumer products business. The project’s official store lists new fall merchandise including stationery, water bottles, stickers and stress-ball sets, while a Sept. 23 report described a 12-product Pudgy Essentials line headed to retail shelves.
That retail presence has long been part of the Pudgy Penguins thesis: physical products introduce the brand to mainstream audiences, which the project then converts into digital engagement across its NFT ecosystem and token economy.
For now, traders are left weighing a nearly 10% daily decline against a 38.2% seven-day gain. With open interest falling, liquidations modest and spot netflows roughly balanced, the pullback reads more like a cooling-off period after an extended run than a structural breakdown. Whether PENGU can reclaim and hold the 0.010 USD to 0.011 USD zone will likely determine whether the weekly bullish signals identified by analysts translate into further upside.
As with all meme-adjacent assets, volatility cuts both ways. The same momentum that produced a 38% weekly rally can just as quickly produce double-digit drawdowns, and holders should size positions accordingly.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
38% week and people are panic selling a 10% dip lol. the one cent line was always gonna get tested after that run to 0.011
^ got stopped out at 0.0095 and im not even mad, weekly chart still up big from 0.00685
that 0.009478 wick was max pain, everyone with stops under the cent got swept. same trap every meme cycle pulls before continuation
if it was a sweep it worked, funding reset and OI rebuilding under the cent. 0.0098 holding into the daily close is the continuation tell
The derivatives cooling explains most of this. Open interest unwound fast after the push past 0.010, so this reads like leverage flushing out, not holders abandoning ship.
where are you seeing the open interest data? asking because 376M in volume doesnt smell like pure deleveraging to me
coinglass shows the OI, it bled out right as funding reset. and 376M volume is mostly makers quoting both sides, not spot absorbing anything
makers quoting both sides still need someone hitting the bid at 0.009478. volume after a sweep is still volume, shrug
agree on the leverage flush, but 376M in volume means someone is actually absorbing those perp liquidations. feels like rotation into spot more than an exit
10% red after a 38% week and people write eulogies. 619M cap with an nft community that actually shows up beats dead l2s at the same size, sorry
open interest down 11.66% while price only drops 10%, that is the deleverage working as intended. perps get shaken out, spot keeps the range
right, OI bleeding faster than price is the textbook deleverage. if funding stays negative near a 619M cap this grinds back over the cent
^ up 38% on the week and people act like the party ended. 0.0098 after starting under 0.007, i will take it
deleverage thesis is cute until you look at the wick to 0.009478. that low went straight through the supposed spot support, chart is thinner than the range suggests
a wick through 0.009478 that closes back above the level is the textbook fakeout. agree the book is thin tho, 376M of volume is the only thing holding this up
a wick to 0.009478 that reclaimed in the same candle is just a flush. thin book sure, but the level held by close
one cent line held for now. next test is whether that 154M open interest keeps bleeding or stabilizes
38% week into one 10% red day is just monday for pengu. the one cent line is psychology, 154M open interest is the actual number
154M open interest after the bleed is the part nobody is pricing. if that stabilizes under the cent the 0.011 retest comes fast, funding already did its reset
the 154M OI number is stale by the time articles print it, the flush already happened. watch funding not oi
0.01111 high back to 0.0098 and the market cap is still 619M. say what you want about penguins, these holders do not fold
619M cap for a penguin coin while serious l2s sit below that. holders refusing to fold is literally the bull case here
holder refusal to fold is the entire pengu thesis since the ip. memes with a stubborn community outlast fundamentals with paper hands every time
ranking a meme against l2s by mcap is such a tired frame. 619M with zero revenue vs chains earning fees, the market pays for attention not fundamentals, cuts both ways
still 85% under the 0.06845 ath and the comments read like a victory parade over one cent holding. meme math is something else, though the 0.00685 to 0.011 run was genuinely clean