PEPE Tests Critical Support at 0.0000041 USD as Bearish Pennant Forms — but the Weekly Chart Tells a Different Story

PEPE is sitting on a technical fault line. The frog-themed token has held above the 0.000004 USD mark as its September rally cools, but a narrowing pattern on the short-term chart is flashing a warning that the next big move could be downward. The tension between improving weekly momentum and a bearish intraday setup has turned PEPE into one of the more closely watched chart battles in the meme coin corner of the market.

According to TradingView’s Binance PEPE/USDT daily chart, the token changed hands near 0.00000433 USD on September 30, up 1.64 percent from the daily opening price. The session ranged between 0.00000423 and 0.00000452 USD, with PEPE retreating from the upper end of that range before settling. The token remains below its September spike above 0.0000053 USD, leaving it roughly 18 percent below that local peak, though it continues to trade above the area around 0.0000035 USD where it spent part of the month before the rally.

The pullback matters because PEPE is now wedged between two competing narratives. On the daily chart, the token trades above its 20-day Bollinger Band midpoint at 0.00000402 USD, with the upper band standing at 0.00000502 USD and the lower band at 0.00000302 USD. At its latest price, PEPE sits about 7.7 percent above the midpoint and 13.7 percent below the upper band. A return to the upper band would require a gain of roughly 16 percent before another test of the September high.

Daily relative strength remains above its neutral threshold, but the details point to fading momentum. The 14-day relative strength index stood at 57.96, below its own moving average of 62.40 and well below the overbought readings reached during the recent surge. The RSI position above 50 keeps the daily setup stronger than it was during the summer lows, yet the slide beneath its average shows the rally’s engine is no longer running at full throttle.

The weekly view tells a more encouraging story. PEPE traded near 0.00000435 USD on the weekly chart, holding above a descending trendline drawn from the 2025 highs and above both the 20-week simple moving average at 0.00000324 USD and the 50-week average at 0.00000396 USD. Analyst Moustache argued in a September 28 post that PEPE has broken out of a 2.5-year falling wedge, with price above the pattern’s upper boundary — a bullish longer-term read, though one offered without a specific price target.

The weekly MACD supports that constructive framing. The MACD line sits above its signal line with a positive histogram reading of 0.00000026, a shift that followed an extended period of weak readings during PEPE’s decline from its earlier highs. Both lines remain below zero — the MACD line near minus 0.00000004 and the signal line near minus 0.00000030 — which means momentum is improving but has not yet flipped decisively positive. The 100-week average, much higher at 0.00000805 USD, underscores how much work remains: PEPE would need to gain about 85 percent from current levels just to reach that long-term average.

Bearish pennant on the four-hour chart

Not everyone is convinced. Analyst Crypto With Gopal identified a narrowing formation on PEPE’s four-hour chart in a September 29 post, labeling it a bearish pennant with key support at 0.0000041 USD. According to the analyst, a breakdown below that support could open a move toward 0.0000030 USD — a decline of roughly 31 percent from the daily chart’s latest price. He placed the setup’s invalidation level around 0.0000047 USD, meaning a push above that resistance would challenge the bearish case and bring the daily upper Bollinger band at 0.00000502 USD back into focus.

His downside target sits close to the daily lower Bollinger band at 0.00000302 USD, though the two levels come from different methods — one a projected chart-pattern objective, the other a volatility-band reading. The short-term warning stands in direct contrast to the weekly breakout view, and both can coexist: PEPE’s position above its weekly averages does not preclude a pullback on the four-hour chart, with 0.0000041 and 0.0000047 USD framing the near-term range.

Leverage is stacked on both sides. CoinGlass’s three-day liquidation heatmap showed overhead concentrations around 0.00000444 to 0.00000452 USD, with another band near 0.00000458. Below the market, a bright cluster sits near 0.00000416 USD — almost exactly at the support identified in the bearish pennant scenario — followed by concentrations around 0.00000408 and 0.00000404 to 0.00000406 USD. Those clusters mark where leveraged positions could be forcibly liquidated, potentially amplifying whatever direction price breaks.

For context, broader market data from CoinGecko at 00:00 UTC on October 1 showed Bitcoin near 83,543 USD, Ethereum near 2,684 USD and Solana near 118 USD — a market where large caps are consolidating, leaving tokens like PEPE more dependent on their own technical structure.

US holders should also keep the regulatory backdrop in mind. The SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance said in its February 27, 2025 staff statement that typical meme coins derive their value mainly from speculation and market demand, and that transactions in the meme coins described generally fall outside federal securities laws. The staff stressed, however, that individual arrangements require a facts-based assessment, that the statement carries no legal force, and that fraud involving meme coins may still face action under other federal or state laws.

For now, PEPE traders are watching one number: 0.0000041 USD. Hold it, and the weekly breakout thesis stays alive with the September high in play. Lose it, and the bearish pennant’s 0.0000030 USD objective becomes the market’s next talking point.