Prediction Market Growth: Citizens Bank Projects 10 Billion Dollar Industry by 2030
By Jennifer Kim | March 3, 2026
A new report from Citizens Bank projects that prediction markets could generate 10 billion dollars in annual revenue by 2030, representing a significant expansion from current levels of approximately 3 billion dollars.
Market Evolution
Prediction markets have evolved from niche betting platforms to sophisticated trading ecosystems covering politics, sports, economics, and regulatory events. Major platforms include CFTC-regulated Kalshi and Polymarket, which covers diverse prediction categories.
January trading volume increased over 40% compared to December, with February maintaining similar growth rates. Sports events remain the largest liquidity source, but activity is expanding into macroeconomic and regulatory predictions.
Institutional Interest Grows
Analysts note that asset classes typically evolve from retail-driven liquidity to professional market makers and eventually institutional capital. Prediction markets appear to be following this pattern, with early institutional participation emerging through data integration, liquidity provision, and settlement standardization.
These markets enable investors to hedge discrete event risks, from inflation surprises to merger approvals, without relying on proxy instruments like index futures, potentially reducing basis risk.
Regulatory Developments
Coinbase has partnered with Kalshi to offer prediction market features, though the company has filed lawsuits in several states where regulators have issued cease-and-desist orders or warnings about sports event contracts being classified as illegal gambling.
Prediction markets carry regulatory and financial risks. This article is for informational purposes only.
