The crypto market has been stuck in a grueling bear cycle that has seen Bitcoin fall roughly 77% from its all-time highs near $69,000. But beneath the surface of depressed prices and waning retail interest, a compelling narrative is emerging: some of the largest altcoins by market capitalization may be significantly undervalued according to key on-chain metrics.
TL;DR
- Santiment’s MVRV-Z score analysis shows XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, SHIB, UNI, and LINK are all trading in undervalued territory
- Market caps for these assets remain above their realized caps, a historically bullish signal
- MATIC has dropped from $0.99 to $0.88 over the past month despite a 29.5% surge in daily active users on the Polygon network
- Bitcoin is trading at $27,119, down 3.44% for the week, while ETH sits at $1,891
- Historical patterns suggest undervalued altcoins tend to make significant recoveries during summer months
Santiment’s MVRV Signal Flashes “Buy” for Top Altcoins
On June 4, 2023, the prominent cryptocurrency analytics firm Santiment released data that sent ripples through the crypto community. Their analysis, based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score — a metric that compares an asset’s current market capitalization to its realized capitalization across short, medium, and long-term timeframes — revealed that a cluster of major altcoins are sitting firmly in undervalued territory.
The tokens flagged by Santiment’s analysis include XRP, Cardano (ADA), Dogecoin (DOGE), Polygon (MATIC), Shiba Inu (SHIB), Uniswap (UNI), and Chainlink (LINK). According to the data, all of these assets have market caps trading above their realized caps, which historically suggests that holders are, on average, sitting at a loss — a condition that often precedes upward price movements.
XRP Leads the Undervaluation Charge
XRP, trading at $0.536 on June 4 with a market cap of approximately $27.9 billion, stands out among the undervalued assets. Despite being up 3.19% over the past 24 hours and a remarkable 10.98% over the past seven days, Santiment’s data suggests the token still has considerable room for growth relative to its realized value. The ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit has kept a lid on XRP’s price for over two years, but growing optimism about a favorable resolution has been fueling momentum.
Cardano and Polygon Show Divergent Fundamentals
Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.378, down 1.39% over the past week, with a market cap of roughly $13.2 billion. The token’s MVRV-Z score has been hovering in the underbought zone, suggesting that despite the broader market’s recovery efforts since the start of 2023, ADA holders have not yet seen meaningful relief.
Perhaps the most interesting case is Polygon’s MATIC token. While the price has declined from $0.99 to $0.88 over the past month — a drop of approximately 11% — the underlying network activity tells a dramatically different story. According to data from Token Terminal, daily active users on the Polygon network surged by 29.5% over the same period. This divergence between declining token price and surging network adoption is a classic signal of undervaluation that has caught the attention of analysts and investors alike.
DOGE and SHIB: Meme Coins With Serious Metrics
Even the meme coin sector is showing signs of being oversold. Dogecoin (DOGE), trading at $0.072 with a market cap of $10.1 billion, and Shiba Inu (SHIB) both appear on Santiment’s undervaluation list. While meme coins are often dismissed as speculative plays, their inclusion in the MVRV analysis alongside fundamentally-driven projects like Chainlink and Uniswap adds weight to the argument that the broader altcoin market may be due for a correction upward.
Solana Bucks the Trend
Not all altcoins are lagging. Solana (SOL) is trading at $21.82, up 3.14% in the past 24 hours and 4.91% over the past week, with a market cap of $8.66 billion. SOL has been one of the stronger performers in the altcoin space, driven by growing ecosystem activity and increasing developer engagement. Its performance stands in contrast to the undervaluation signals seen elsewhere, suggesting that capital rotation within the altcoin market is already underway.
Why This Matters
The convergence of undervaluation signals across such a broad swath of the altcoin market is historically significant. When the MVRV-Z score dips into the underbought zone for multiple major assets simultaneously, it has often preceded coordinated rallies — particularly during the summer months when trading volumes tend to pick up after spring consolidation periods.
For investors, the key takeaway is that the current bear market, while painful, has created a rare window where fundamentally strong projects with growing user bases (like Polygon) are trading at significant discounts to their on-chain value. The question is not whether these assets will recover, but when the market will recognize the disconnect between price and fundamentals.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
MATIC at $0.88 with 29.5% more daily users. the market was literally paying you to buy usage growth
polygon_whale usage up price down only works as a signal if the usage is real and not farmed airdrops. MATIC had genuine partnerships though
santiment MVRV flashing buy on XRP, ADA, and SHIB at the same time. BTC at $27K and these were all deeply undervalued. wonder how many actually bought
mrvr screaming buy is necessary but not sufficient. you also need a catalyst. most of these bled for months after this signal before reversing
MATIC dropping from $0.99 to $0.88 while daily active users surged 29.5%. classic divergence that nobody acts on until its too late
the MATIC divergence is textbook. user growth up 29.5% while price drops 11%. seen this pattern play out so many times and it usually ends with a sharp snap back
anika j the MATIC divergence was real but it kept diverging for months. being early on a thesis and being right are two different things
mvrv_skeptic you are right that being early on MATIC felt wrong for months. the divergence thesis only works if you have the patience to sit on a -20% position while waiting
the MATIC user growth was real. polygon was onboarding partnerships left and right while the token bled. fundamentals and price can stay disconnected for a long time
SHIB on a buy list next to ADA and XRP. santiment was really out here treating meme coins like fundamentals matter lol
MVRV-Z called the bottom on LINK too and nobody mentions it. Santiment got more right than people give them credit for in that cycle
SHIB flashing buy on MVRV is wild. a meme coin being called undervalued by on-chain metrics shows the limits of fundamental analysis
mrvr was literally screaming buy on SHIB of all things and everyone ignored it. hindsight is brutal