LONDON — The fundamental valuation models utilized by traditional Wall Street analysts are undergoing a rapid evolution as they attempt to accurately price the long-term trajectory of Bitcoin. This weekend, the macro research division of Standard Chartered reaffirmed its highly aggressive price target for the leading cryptocurrency, maintaining a base case projection of $150,000 by the end of 2026, despite current market volatility and “Extreme Fear” sentiment.
The bank’s conviction is rooted in a deep analysis of structural supply mechanics rather than short-term retail trading patterns. The report explicitly highlights the ongoing, relentless accumulation of Bitcoin by spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). By treating the ETFs as a permanent structural demand shock, the analysts calculate that the mathematical reduction of new supply (the halving) combined with the massive, automated capital inflows from traditional finance will inevitably force a violent upward repricing of the asset.
Furthermore, the macro thesis is heavily dependent on the anticipated trajectory of global monetary policy. While the Federal Reserve is currently maintaining a hawkish stance to combat sticky inflation, Standard Chartered projects that the mounting pressure of U.S. sovereign debt will mathematically force central banks to resume quantitative easing and execute significant rate cuts in the second half of 2026, flooding the market with fiat liquidity.
“Bitcoin is currently trading as a high-beta tech stock, but its underlying mechanics dictate it will eventually trade as a synthetic reserve asset,” a lead macro strategist noted. “When the Federal Reserve is inevitably forced to pivot, the newly printed fiat will aggressively seek out the hardest assets available. With institutional capital already draining the liquid supply, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is exponentially higher.”
