Traders Are Sitting on a 5 Billion USD Bitcoin Bet That Says the Price Is Headed to 70,000 USD — But the Market Just Started Wobbling

Bitcoin options traders have piled nearly $5 billion into bets that the cryptocurrency will hit $70,000 or higher by the end of July. But with the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, ETF inflows snapping a seven-day streak, and on-chain data showing the current price is being propped up by short-term traders rather than fresh capital, that bullish wager is looking increasingly vulnerable.

By Yasmin Al-Rashid | July 25, 2026

The Hook: A Massive Concentrated Bet

On Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, bitcoin options at the $70,000 and $72,000 strike prices have accumulated nearly $5 billion in notional open interest, according to data from analytics firm Laevitas. Together, those two contracts represent roughly 18% of Deribit’s total bitcoin options open interest of $28 billion.

The positioning is overwhelmingly bullish. The $70,000 strike currently has approximately 39,000 call contracts open versus just 3,800 puts. The $72,000 level carries roughly 37,900 calls to only 1,200 puts. For context, call options give the buyer the right to purchase bitcoin at a set price — they are bullish bets. Puts are the opposite, used to bet on or hedge against a price decline.

In plain English: a huge number of traders have wagered serious money that bitcoin will climb above $70,000 by the end of this month. Bitcoin currently trades near $64,192, meaning these bets require a rally of roughly 9% in a matter of days.

On-Chain Evidence: The Floor Beneath Bitcoin Is Thinner Than It Looks

While options traders are betting big, the underlying data tells a more cautious story. According to CryptoQuant, demand for bitcoin from long-term holders and institutions is falling rapidly. The analytics firm’s read is that bitcoin’s price near $65,000 is being held up by speculative trading in the futures market rather than by fresh capital flowing in from long-term buyers.

This is a critical distinction. When prices are driven by long-term accumulation — investors buying and holding — the foundation tends to be solid. When prices are propped up by short-term traders in the futures market, the support can vanish quickly, as those positions get closed out or liquidated at the first sign of trouble.

The ETF market is flashing a similar warning. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds broke their seven-day inflow streak on Thursday, recording $225.1 million in outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the majority of those outflows, with $202.5 million in redemptions alone.

• $5 billion — Notional open interest concentrated at $70K and $72K call strikes on Deribit
• $225.1 million — Bitcoin ETF outflows on Thursday, snapping a 7-day inflow streak
• $202.5 million — IBIT outflows alone, the majority of ETF redemptions
• 38% — Polymarket odds of CLARITY Act passage in 2026, down from 51% earlier in the week

The Core Conflict: CLARITY Act Optimism Meets Political Reality

Much of the bullish options positioning was driven by expectations that the CLARITY Act — landmark crypto legislation — would pass the Senate before the August recess. Jimmy Yang, co-founder of Orbit Markets, an institutional digital asset liquidity provider, confirmed that the demand for upside calls was tied to this optimism.

“Earlier this month, we saw decent demand for BTC topside calls, with the 31 July $70,000 and $72,000 strikes being particularly popular,” Yang said. “A lot of this positioning was driven by expectations that the CLARITY Act could be passed before the end of the month.”

But those expectations have dimmed considerably. Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated he does not expect the Senate to pass the bill before adjourning for August recess, according to Fortune. On Polymarket, the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 dropped to 38% from 51% earlier in the week.

In the last 24 hours, traders have already begun unwinding some of these bullish bets, scaling back positions that no longer look like a sure thing. The unwinding is still in its early stages, which means the full impact on bitcoin’s price has yet to be felt.

Market Implications: What Happens When a $5 Billion Bet Goes Wrong?

Here is the scenario that should concern every crypto investor: if the $70,000 and $72,000 calls expire worthless at the end of July — which they will if bitcoin does not rally meaningfully within days — the traders who bought them lose their premium. That alone is not catastrophic. But the broader psychological effect could be.

When the market’s most concentrated bullish positioning unwinds, it often triggers a cascade effect. Traders who were long calls may sell spot bitcoin to hedge their losses. Market makers who sold those calls and bought bitcoin to hedge their own exposure may then sell that bitcoin back into the market. This is how a options-driven rally can reverse into a sharp pullback.

The broader market context adds to the caution. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has been under pressure from an $800 billion AI stock selloff, with chipmakers dragging down the index. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 2.7% on Friday, and data center stocks including IREN, Cipher Mining, and TeraWulf each lost 4% to 5%. Bitcoin has held up better than tech stocks, but the correlation between crypto and tech remains a risk factor.

There are also signs of stress in the bitcoin treasury company sector. Multiple firms that borrowed money to buy bitcoin — including Satsuma Technology, Smarter Web Company, Sequans Communications, and Nakamoto — have sold portions of their holdings to repay debt or fund operations, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets research. Even Strategy (MSTR), the pioneer of the model, has sold bitcoin in recent weeks to support its dollar reserves.

The Verdict: A Market at a Crossroads

Bitcoin sits at a critical juncture. On one side, $5 billion in options positioning says the price is going higher. On the other side, stalling legislation, snapping ETF inflows, weakening on-chain demand, and a broader tech selloff all point to growing downside risk.

The weekly picture still looks healthy — bitcoin is up roughly 3% over seven days, and most major cryptocurrencies remain in the green for the week. Ethereum is up about 1.8% over the same period, trading near $1,868. Solana at $74.10 is roughly flat.

But weekly gains can evaporate quickly when the options market unwinds. The key date to watch is July 31, when the bulk of the $70,000 and $72,000 call options expire. If bitcoin is trading below those levels — which seems likely unless a major catalyst emerges — the largest concentrated bullish bet in the options market will expire worthless, and the market will need to find a new narrative to drive the next move.

For regular investors, the takeaway is simple: do not confuse a big options bet with a guaranteed price move. The traders who placed that $5 billion wager could be right — or they could be the ones forced to sell when the bet goes bad.

The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.