Some of the biggest traders in crypto just wagered two and a half billion dollars that Bitcoin will climb to 72,000 by the end of July, timing their bet to land right when the Federal Reserve makes its next interest rate decision.
By Michael Nguyen | July 18, 2026
The Mega Trade Explained
According to data from Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, someone purchased 20,000 contracts of a Bitcoin call option with a strike price of 70,000 expiring on July 31, while simultaneously selling 20,000 contracts of a 72,000 call with the same expiry date. Together, those 40,000 contracts represent two and a half billion dollars in notional value, since each contract equals one Bitcoin.
In trading parlance, this is called a bull call spread. Think of it like buying a ticket that pays out if Bitcoin rises to 70,000, but selling away any gains above 72,000 to lower the cost of that ticket. The trade-off is simple: you spend less money upfront and your maximum loss is smaller if the market goes sideways or drops, but you cap your upside at 72,000.
“This week we have seen some large blocks in BTC topside call spreads,” Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, told CoinDesk. Options flow of this size and precision typically reflects institutional positioning rather than retail activity, given the enormous capital required and the surgical strike selection.
Why the Federal Reserve Matters Here
The expiry date of July 31 is no accident. It falls exactly two days after the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision, the central bank’s most closely watched meeting of the summer. The call spread structure suggests that at least some very large traders expect the Fed meeting to serve as a catalyst that pushes Bitcoin higher.
Right now, fed funds futures markets put the probability of the Fed holding its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% somewhere in the range of 75% to 80%. The remaining odds are split between a rate hike and, to a lesser extent, a cut. Rate-hike fears have eased considerably following June inflation data that showed a sharp deceleration in price pressures at both the consumer and producer levels, helped by a significant pullback in oil prices during the month.
For everyday investors, the connection is straightforward: when the Fed signals that rate hikes are off the table, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to rally because borrowing costs stay predictable and investors feel more confident taking on risk. The options traders making this bet are essentially saying they think the Fed will confirm that view on July 29.
From 58,000 to 64,000 and the Road Ahead
The trade also reflects growing confidence in Bitcoin’s recent recovery. BTC has bounced from under 58,000 earlier in July to around 64,000 this week, a significant rebound that has caught the attention of momentum traders. Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately 64,400, according to CoinGecko data.
However, the geopolitical backdrop is anything but calm. Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated sharply this week, with fresh military strikes disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude have surged by their largest amounts since March. That has some analysts warning that the June inflation relief may be backward-looking, since the soft data predates this week’s flare-up in the Middle East.
This creates an interesting tension: options traders are betting on a Bitcoin rally driven by a calm Fed meeting, but energy prices and geopolitical tensions could complicate that picture by reigniting inflation concerns before July 29 arrives.
- Trade size: 40,000 contracts totaling two and a half billion dollars in notional value
- Strike range: 70,000 to 72,000, expiring July 31
- Fed meeting: July 29, two days before expiry
- Rate hold odds: 75% to 80% probability
- BTC current: approximately 64,400, up from under 58,000 earlier in July
What This Means for Regular Investors
You do not need to be an options trader to care about this. When institutional players commit this kind of capital to a specific price target by a specific date, it sends a signal about where smart money sees the market heading. The fact that they chose a spread expiring right after the Fed meeting tells you they view that event as the next major pivot point for crypto prices.
For holders of Bitcoin or Bitcoin-related investments like ETFs, the trade suggests that at least some deep-pocketed participants see limited downside risk between now and the end of July. But remember: options trades can go to zero if the price does not reach the strike, and even billion-dollar bets can be wrong.
The key date to watch is July 29. If the Fed holds rates steady and strikes a dovish tone, the path to 70,000 becomes plausible. If inflation data between now and then surprises hot, or if Middle East tensions send oil prices even higher, the Fed could sound more hawkish and this massive bet could expire worthless.
The Verdict
This is one of the largest single options structures seen in crypto this year, and it reflects genuine institutional conviction in a near-term Bitcoin rally. The timing is deliberate, the strategy is disciplined, and the size demands attention. But it is a bet, not a guarantee. Geopolitical risks, inflation surprises, and Fed uncertainty all remain in play. For regular investors, the smartest move is to watch what happens around July 29 rather than blindly following the options flow. If the Fed delivers what traders expect, this two and a half billion dollar wager could look prescient. If not, it will be an expensive lesson in the limits of even the biggest market participants.
The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk; always do your own research.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk; always do your own research.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk; always do your own research.
the fact that deribit booked this means institutional desks are comfy sizing up crypto options now. wouldnt have happened in 2023
selling the 72k call to fund the 70k call is smart risk management tbh. caps your upside but cuts the premium by a lot
2.5B notional sounds scary but its a spread, max loss is capped. the real tell is they picked july 31 expiry, basically free options if powell blinks dovish on the 29th
everyone ignoring the hormuz angle. oil spikes right before the fed meeting and powell gets hawkish on inflation, this spread goes to zero real quick
oil_drag hormuz risk is real but BTC has decoupled from oil shocks twice this year already. one geopolitical event doesnt move it like it used to
oil_drag hormuz risk plus sticky CPI and these guys still went max gamma into the fed. either they know something or its the most expensive cope ever
satoshi_senpai the spread structure caps max loss yeah but 2.5B notional in premium is still a massive directional bet. this isnt free options
holding through 58k to 64k in three weeks and then aping into a 70k call spread right before the fed meeting is either conviction or cope. guess we find out july 31
Nadia V. holding through 58K to 64K then aping a 70K spread before the fed is peak trader brain. one hawkish sentence from Powell and thats a total loss
Nadia V. one hawkish Powell sentence and the spread goes to zero. but thats the trade thesis. theyre betting the fed blinks dovish. high conviction not cope
theta_eat_world_ betting the fed blinks dovish in july 2026 with inflation still sticky is a take. CPI came in hot twice that quarter. respected the conviction though
2.5B notional bull call spread expiring july 31 right before the fed. these desks are basically gambling on powell saying one specific word
max_pain_ not gambling. defined risk spread with capped downside. the premium is the cost of the trade not 2.5B
max_pain_ its a defined risk spread not an all-in gamble. the premium spent is the max loss. people see 2.5B notional and panic without understanding spread mechanics
Henrik J. defined risk yes but the premium on 20K contracts at 70K strike is still enormous. max loss being capped doesnt mean max loss is small
Henrik J. defined risk on a 2.5B notional spread means the premium alone was probably 300-400M. capped loss doesnt mean small loss
70K call spread expiring july 31 right after FOMC. the timing is the whole trade. one dovish hint from powell and those contracts go 5x
20K contracts of 70K calls vs 20K of 72K calls is a textbook bull call spread. defined risk yes but the premium on that notional is still enormous. one hawkish powell sentence and its a total loss
vol_skew_ exactly. people see 2.5B and think gambling but the spread structure caps both upside and downside. the real question is whether the premium was worth the theta decay into july 31
Sefa D. premium decay into july 31 was the real risk. spread caps your loss but theta eats you alive if BTC sideways
Sefa D. the theta decay argument is the whole trade. they are long gamma into FOMC not delta. powell speaks and either it prints or it goes to zero
Long gamma into a rate decision is the classic squeeze play. Powell hints at a cut and every dealer is buying spot to hedge.
vol_skew_ exactly. 2.5B notional sounds insane but the max loss on a call spread is the premium paid. the real story is who has 300M to burn on a jul 31 expiry
the spread tells you they know its a lottery ticket. nobody drops 2.5B notional naked into a fomc print, the premium outlay is the real number
20k contracts on deribit with one expiry date. either one desk is feeling lucky or a few whales synced their calls in the same group chat