XRP Has Closed Above 1 Dollar for 635 Straight Days, but the Charts Are Flashing a Warning Few Want to Hear
XRP is clinging to the dollar price line it has defended since the aftermath of the 2024 United States election, and the technical picture behind that defense is deteriorating in ways that even patient holders can no longer ignore.
The token is trading around 1.00 USD, slightly up on the day after dipping to an intraday low near 0.99. That small bounce matters more than it looks: XRP has now closed above 1 USD every single day since November 2024, a streak that had reached 635 sessions as of last week. The streak nearly snapped twice this month alone, pushed to the edge partly by a bridge exploit that drained roughly 200,000 USD through a connection between the TX Chain and the XRP Ledger, briefly shoving XRP under 1 USD on August 11 and again on August 14. Buyers stepped in before the daily close both times.
This week told the same story again. XRP tagged 0.9862, a level last touched right before the November 2024 rally, the move traders took to calling the Trump pump, which eventually carried the token to an all-time high near 3.65 USD.
The daily chart already broke down
Zoom into the daily chart and the technical damage is done. XRP's 50-day exponential moving average is trading below its 200-day EMA. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term one, traders call it a death cross, and for XRP it essentially confirms that sellers have controlled the short-to-medium-term trend for weeks.
The daily Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength regardless of direction, sits at 21.8, just under the 25 threshold traders use to confirm real conviction. The reading says the decline is real, but no longer violent.
Fibonacci retracement levels, the natural supports and resistances that emerge during trends, add to the gloom. XRP has not even reclaimed its shallowest retracement level at 1.0281, and the so-called golden zone between 1.0754 and 1.0965 remains a distant climb from here.
The weekly chart is converging
The heavier warning comes from the weekly time frame. XRP's 50-week EMA is still trading above its 200-week EMA, meaning the golden-cross structure that technically underpinned the entire post-election rally remains intact. But that gap has been closing for months, and the weekly ADX now reads 33.7, well above the 25 level that signals a trend genuinely in place, pointed in the wrong direction for anyone long the token.
When a shorter-term EMA spends this long grinding toward a longer-term one from above, traders read it as an early warning of an eventual cross rather than a coincidence. A weekly death cross forming on top of an existing daily one would remove the last technical pillar of the post-2024 structure.
Fundamentals are not riding to the rescue
The calendar offers little help. The United States Senate left for a five-week August recess without voting on the Clarity Act, pushing the crypto market structure bill's next realistic vote to September 15. The Securities and Exchange Commission abruptly pulled its own vote on new crypto-startup fundraising rules the same week, citing a scheduling issue, part of a broader Washington stall that has chilled sentiment across the market.
The institutional picture is similarly bruised. Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick cut his 2026 XRP price target from 8 USD to 2.80 USD back in the first quarter, a reduction that still looks generous with the token hovering at parity.
Whales have reportedly bought roughly 380 million XRP near the 1 USD level over the past week, but they are doing it alongside 1.5 billion USD in freshly opened leveraged long positions, the kind of positioning that turns an ordinary break below 1 USD into a faster, uglier move if it triggers forced liquidations. Support sits first near this week's low of 0.98, with 0.9061 as the major level below, while resistance stacks up at the 1.07 to 1.09 golden zone.
The broader market context is no refuge. Bitcoin is down more than 3 percent this week and stuck below 64,000 USD, while Ethereum is struggling to hold 1,900 USD, an extended bear stretch with no confirmed bottom in sight even as stock indexes hover near highs.
For six hundred and thirty-five days, holding the line at 1 USD has been XRP's proudest statistic. The charts are now asking how much longer it can last.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
635 days above 1 dollar and everyone forgets the nov 2024 base near 0.98 the second a death cross shows up
that 0.9862 level held twice already, third test usually decides it
third test decides it maybe, but the 50 day is already under the 200. that golden zone at 1.07 is fantasy without volume
agree the third test decides it, but if 0.9862 gives way the next real bid sits at the nov 2024 base near 0.98 that tape_sue mentioned. gap down there is ugly
nov 2024 base near 0.98 is the level that matters, agreed. if the streak dies it dies fast into that gap, nobody catches a falling bid at 0.9862
weekly death crosses on xrp are lagging signals. by the time it prints the sellers are usually exhausted
held through the trump pump and the drop from 3.65, a cross on the weekly chart is noise by comparison
noise until it isnt. the last weekly cross took months to matter but it did matter, id rather be early than married to the streak
held through the drop from 3.65 and now the debate is a weekly cross. stamina was never the issue, entry was
lagging yes, but the adx reading at 21.8 means the downtrend is losing steam, not gaining. weak hands mostly out already
adx at 21.8 with the 50 under the 200 means weak trend down, not no trend. if 0.9862 gives way there is nothing but air under the streak
0.9862 is the whole trade. below it there is nothing until the low 0.90s and the 635 day stat becomes a footnote overnight
635 sessions of defense and the whole thing still rests on one tick above 0.9862. agree, the streak is a single wick away from being a trivia answer
adx at 21.8 cuts both ways. a weak trend means the cross can fail too, the 2019 one printed and the market doubled within months
lagging so sellers are exhausted is a lot of confidence for a signal that called the slide from 3.65 late too. crosses lag until they dont
streak everyone cites is closes only. that intraday tag of 0.99 means buyers defended the dollar with basically zero cushion. one bad candle in the asia session and the 635 number is trivia
streak everyone cites is closes only. that intraday tag of 0.99 means buyers defended the dollar with basically zero cushion. one bad candle in the asia session and the 635 number is trivia
0.99 intraday twice this month and both daily closes held above 1. someone big is defending that line, death cross or not
twice this month someone ate the 0.99 wick before the close. whoever it is has deeper pockets than the death cross crowd
two saves of the 0.99 wick in two weeks is a bid, not conviction. bids get tired, streaks dont defend themselves
a 200k bridge exploit is what nearly snapped a 635 day streak lol. the dollar defense is stronger than its own sidechains
a 200k bridge exploit nearly ended a 635 day streak. says a lot about how thin the defense above 1 dollar actually is
bridge drains 200k and the streak survives, one weekly cross prints and everyone panics. the threat ranking here is completely upside down
a 200k bridge exploit moved the 635 day streak more than any death cross has. the chart stuff is decoration, watch ledger news not crosses
single wick from trivia is harsh but accurate. also who bridges 200k through TX Chain, that exploit did the bears a favor twice this month
635 days above a dollar and the market still treats it like a coinflip. the streak itself is doing more work as a psychological floor than any moving average