XRP is trading near 1.54 USD after a 15.92% weekly advance, and the token has walked straight back into the 1.55-1.60 resistance zone that has capped every rally attempt since late September. The question for the weekend is whether this squeeze resolves upward or downward.
CoinGecko data show XRP moving between roughly 1.45 and 1.55 USD over the past 24 hours. The rebound follows a volatile stretch in which XRP touched 1.65 USD on September 23 before sellers pushed it back toward 1.48 USD, leaving the market with strong momentum but no confirmed breakout.
The compression setup
Analyst EGRAG Crypto frames the current hesitation as a compression phase rather than stagnation. In a September 24 post, he pointed out that XRP’s 21-day, 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages are all converging with a macro trendline around price. In his words, this is not XRP doing nothing, it is XRP being squeezed.
His shorter-term setup places decisive weight on 1.55 USD. A strong recovery through that level after a retest of 1.40-1.41 support would support his bullish continuation scenario toward the recent 1.65-1.66 highs and then 1.70 USD. If XRP cannot reclaim 1.55 USD, he sees the middle of a falling channel near 1.22 USD becoming more relevant. His much larger long-term targets of 12, 15 and 27 USD remain speculative and require moves far beyond current resistance.
Momentum still favors buyers
The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 62.77, above its signal average near 56.24 but below the conventional overbought threshold of 70. The Aroon Oscillator sits at +50, indicating recent highs are occurring more recently than recent lows, which supports the upward trend without showing extreme dominance.
EGRAG’s RSI roadmap adds a second layer to watch. He wants RSI to cross its moving average above 53, retest that region and hold it before targeting stronger momentum readings toward 80. A drop below 47 would be the alternative signal that the momentum reset has failed. The current reading already sits above the gateway, but holding it through another price test is the condition for his preferred bullish roadmap.
Whales bought the dip in size
Large-holder accumulation has run alongside the rebound. Santiment data shared by analyst Ali Martinez showed wallets in the tracked whale cohort accumulating roughly 1.54 billion XRP within 96 hours, worth approximately 2.2 billion USD at prices during the accumulation window. Tracked holdings increased from about 8.27 billion XRP to 9.81 billion XRP, with buying beginning while XRP traded near 1.40 USD after the market reaction to the failed CLARITY Act vote.
The caveat is inherent to wallet data: exchanges, custodians and institutions may control multiple addresses, so the 1.54 billion XRP figure measures balances within the monitored cohort rather than confirmed purchases by identified investors. Price nevertheless strengthened after the window, moving from roughly 1.41 USD on September 20 to 1.53 USD the next day before testing above 1.65 USD.
ETF demand keeps building below resistance
U.S. spot XRP ETFs continue to attract capital while spot price chops below 1.60 USD. SoSoValue data for September 24 showed 14.89 million USD in daily net inflows, lifting cumulative net inflows to roughly 1.76 billion USD, with Bitwise leading at 9.91 million USD and Franklin Templeton adding 4.98 million USD. The prior session brought another 18.04 million USD.
Fund demand has not removed the volatility. On September 23, XRP ETFs absorbed fresh capital while spot XRP fell sharply after failing to hold above 1.60 USD, a pattern that has repeated through multiple corrections since the funds launched.
Institutional exposure extends beyond dedicated funds
A September 9 SEC filing for the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF showed XRP carrying a 9.15% weight in the fund’s benchmark as of August 31, behind Bitcoin at 39.54% and Ethereum at 18.86%, and just ahead of BNB at 9.29%. The filing lists XRP among eligible assets and represents an updated allocation disclosure for the actively managed product launched earlier in 2026.
The Cyber Hornet S&P 500 and XRP 75/25 Strategy ETF is also already operating, targeting approximately 75% exposure to S&P 500 stocks and 25% to XRP through direct holdings, futures and XRP-linked exchange-traded products since January 30.
Ripple’s institutional push continues in parallel. RLUSD crossed 2.3 billion USD in market capitalization earlier in September, and the company retains a Dubai Financial Services Authority approval for the stablecoin as a recognized token inside the DIFC, alongside its own DFSA license for regulated blockchain payment services.
The setup leaves XRP at a familiar decision point: reclaim 1.55 USD and the 1.65-1.66 high comes back into play, or lose the squeeze and the 1.40-1.41 support, with EGRAG’s 1.22 USD channel level waiting below.
Market snapshot at 12:00 UTC on Sept. 25, 2026: BTC 84,606 USD, ETH 2,716.64 USD, SOL 120.81 USD (CoinGecko).
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
14.89M inflows sounds big until you see the day before was 18.04M. Bitwise still leading at 9.91M but demand is tapering right into that 1.55 wall
tapering inflows into resistance is the classic distribution tell, but that whale cohort could just be custodian shuffles. the chart resolves it before the flows do
14.89M after 18.04M is tapering, not reversal. but into the fifth test of the 1.55 to 1.60 band it matters. watching whether inflows hold if we retest 1.40
the Bitwise 9.91M slice is the part that matters imo. one fund carrying two thirds of daily inflows is thin demand, not a bid wall
Two thirds of inflows from one Bitwiz fund also means one redemption day undoes the whole number. Thin demand cuts both ways.
thin bid cuts both ways is the honest read. one big Bitwise day and the demand narrative flips again
EGRAG been calling 1.55 all week. a 16% weekly candle straight into the same resistance band that killed the sept 23 bounce, something gives soon
and if 1.55 rejects again he pulls out the 1.22 channel mid lol. analysts win both ways every time
the 1.22 channel mid pull is preloaded lol. every EGRAG scenario has a fallback ladder so the call is never wrong
RSI 62 with room before 70 and etf inflows still positive, im not fading this squeeze
RSI at 62 is nice but EGRAG himself says the real test is holding above 53 through a retest. plenty of squeezes die right there
exactly, everyone is staring at the 1.60 ceiling while the actual tell is whether dips keep getting bought above 1.48. if that shelf gives way the squeeze thesis is dead no matter what RSI or the converging MAs say
the 1.48 shelf and the ema stack both resolving the same weekend. one of them blinks first
the 1.48 shelf is the whole trade tbh. EGRAG wants a 1.40 retest before the 1.55 reclaim, and if that sequence plays out the 1.70 target isnt even the aggressive one
if the 1.40 retest holds while inflows keep printing, the 1.70 path writes itself. risk is the retest becoming a breakdown, one bad weekend candle and the whole squeeze thesis is dead
RSI 62 crew bout to learn the difference between room to run and divergence lol. watched this exact setup reject at 1.60 on the 23rd
1.55 to 1.60 has rejected every attempt since late September and now the 21, 50 and 100 EMAs are converging right under it. something gives this weekend
EGRAG has been calling for that momentum reading toward 80 for weeks tho. i believe the breakout when we actually close above 1.60, not before
same, though the actual EGRAG trigger is reclaiming 1.55 after the 1.40 retest, not 1.60. you can be early and right and still get stopped out first
16% weekly candle straight into the same 1.55 to 1.60 band that ate the sept 23 bounce. fifth time at this wall, either it gives or the apes get faded again
fifth test of the same band and people still act like the sixth breaks differently. if 1.55 goes on real volume i change my mind, until then this is chop with a narrative
sixth test hits different with the 21, 50 and 100 ema stack converging under it tho. even chop has a deadline
that ema stack cuts both ways. lose the 1.60 pivot and the same convergence becomes a launchpad for shorts. id trust the etf inflow numbers over the chart here
flows decided the last leg and theyre tapering, 14.89M after 18.04M. ill watch the Bitwise line over converging emas, thats what paid me last time
whale wallets accumulating while ETF money keeps flowing in and price still chops under resistance. someone is loading for the break
careful with the whale number, article even flags the cohort could be exchange and custodian wallets moving 8.27 to 9.81B XRP around. not all of that is conviction buying
squeeze framing is fine but the simpler read is 16 percent weekly straight into the band that capped every attempt since late september. it breaks on volume or the apes fund the next leg down
EGRAG calling 1.55 the trigger is convenient when the ema convergence does the deciding for him. close above 1.60 or this stays a squeeze inside a range