Deep Dive Analysis
Uniswap (UNI)
2026-10-17 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
7.32
7.32
52W HIGH
10.22
10.22
DRAWDOWN
-28.3%
-28.3%
STAGE
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
Stage 1 (Bottoming)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · LOW Conviction · 3 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising
Bearish factors: price < 50d, MACD-, RSI weak (44.3)
UNI Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 3.82
Low: 2.40
Now: 7.32
Low: 2.40
Now: 7.32
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 44.3 | ADX (14) | 20.6 |
| 50d MA | 7.60 | 200d MA | 4.44 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 6.97 | Resistance | 10.22 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.29%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| UNI | -24.5% | +126.3% | +191.3% | +91.9% |
| BTC | -3.3% | +29.5% | +29.3% | +16.1% |
| ETH | -9.8% | +29.2% | +43.8% | +16.4% |
| SOL | -13.7% | +39.3% | +56.9% | +20.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
21,196
RETURN
+41.3%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-34.9%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| UNI | +41.3% | +118.1% | -34.9% | 27 | 33% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (UNI)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +91.9% | 32,708 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +92.0% | 28,797 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +97.6% | 29,636 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +96.5% | 29,475 |
UNI Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 6.70 (-8.6%) |
| Target 1 | 8.00 (9.2%) |
| Target 2 | 9.00 (22.9%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-08-06 | BUY | 4.04 | |
| 2026-08-07 | SELL | 4.01 | -0.7% |
| 2026-08-08 | BUY | 3.98 | |
| 2026-08-09 | SELL | 4.00 | +0.6% |
| 2026-08-10 | BUY | 3.99 | |
| 2026-08-13 | SELL | 3.57 | -10.4% |
| 2026-08-21 | BUY | 3.76 | |
| 2026-09-06 | SELL | 7.05 | +87.4% |
| 2026-09-08 | BUY | 6.85 | |
| 2026-10-13 | SELL | 6.97 | +1.7% |
| 2026-10-14 | BUY | 7.54 | |
| 2026-10-15 | SELL | 7.19 | -4.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-17 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
UNI is +126.3% over 3 months and the call is still WAIT. I get it, -24.5% last month hurts, but watching this one from the sidelines is painful.
33% win rate across 27 trades and the strategy still returned +41.3%. trend following is being wrong constantly and getting paid by like 4 big winners
Exactly. 9 wins out of 27 trades producing +41.3% means the average winner is several times the size of the average loser. Most people cannot stomach being wrong 2 out of 3 times to collect that.
Below the 50d at 7.60 with support at 6.97, this looks like a falling knife until it reclaims that average. Patience.
resistance at 10.22 is literally the 52 week high itself, thats a wall not a doorway. need volume not hopium
^ volume is the real tell. UNI +126.3% in 3 months and still stuck under its own 52 week high at 10.22. either a big base or distribution, not paying 7.32 to find out
6.97 support below, the 50d at 7.60 above, price wedged at 7.32. Ranges like this usually resolve fast and the people waiting for clarity end up buying somewhere near 9.
The DCA crowd from the 2.40 low is sitting on nearly triple. That DCA section is buried at the bottom but honestly it is the only plan that worked for me on UNI.