Deep Dive Analysis
Quant (QNT)
2026-10-20 09:30 UTC · Tomas Novak · 15,000 Portfolio
PRICE
191.68
191.68
52W HIGH
357.00
357.00
DRAWDOWN
-46.3%
-46.3%
STAGE
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
Stage 2 (Uptrend)
🟡 WAIT — No Clear Edge
Trend-Following System · HIGH Conviction · 5 Bull / 3 Bear Factors
Bullish factors: price > 50d, price > 200d, golden cross, 50d rising, strong bull trend (ADX 35.5)
Bearish factors: MACD-, far below high, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.63)
QNT Price — 1 Year
1Y Ago: 68.81
Low: 54.01
Now: 191.68
Low: 54.01
Now: 191.68
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 48.0 | ADX (14) | 35.5 |
| 50d MA | 149.39 | 200d MA | 88.38 |
| Price vs 50d | ▲ Above | Price vs 200d | ▲ Above |
| Support | 64.17 | Resistance | 357.00 |
| ATR Volatility | 11.73%/day | Trend | HOLD |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| QNT | -28.1% | +243.1% | +179.4% | +178.6% |
| BTC | -2.7% | +25.8% | +28.1% | +21.5% |
| ETH | -11.0% | +24.3% | +42.5% | +22.8% |
| SOL | -12.5% | +35.2% | +55.8% | +31.4% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation of 15,000 using 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. Buy when price > 50d MA (rising) + RSI 40-75. Sell on death cross or RSI > 82.
FINAL VALUE
6,735
RETURN
-55.1%
MAX DRAWDOWN
-56.2%
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| QNT | -55.1% | +100.9% | -56.2% | 63 | 40% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (QNT)
If you had deployed 15,000 using different timing strategies over the past year.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +178.6% | 35,121 |
| DCA — 4 buys | +160.7% | 39,105 |
| DCA — 6 buys | +174.1% | 41,110 |
| DCA — 12 buys | +170.8% | 40,625 |
QNT Deployment Plan — 15,000 Portfolio
Analysis by Tomas Novak (Momentum / Swing Trader). If you’re managing a 15,000 crypto allocation, here’s the plan:
| Position size | 3,750 (25% of portfolio) |
| Stop loss | 146.72 (-23.5%) |
| Target 1 | 248.00 (29.4%) |
| Target 2 | 282.00 (47.1%) |
| Entry quality | Pullback |
| Max concurrent positions | 4 |
Cash reserve: keep 25% buffer. Deploy in 2 tranches. Portfolio style: Momentum / Swing Trader.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | 63.88 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | 63.02 | -1.3% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | 64.52 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | 61.17 | -5.2% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | 63.26 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | 65.64 | +3.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | 64.18 | |
| 2026-09-21 | SELL | 66.97 | +4.4% |
| 2026-09-22 | BUY | 73.74 | |
| 2026-09-23 | SELL | 70.63 | -4.2% |
| 2026-10-01 | BUY | 244.53 | |
| END | SELL | 191.68 | -21.6% |
Generated by BitcoinsNews.com Coin Analysis Engine · 2026-10-20 09:30 UTC
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate
Data via Yahoo Finance / CoinGecko · Not financial advice. For educational purposes only.
A -55.1% backtest on a 15,000 simulation and the verdict is still HOLD? 63 trades at 40% win rate, the system straight up bled money. Lump sum at +178.6% vs strategy -55.1% kind of says everything about trend following on QNT.
the 50d/200d crossover is always late on coins that move like QNT did, 54 to 357 in under a year. By the time the golden cross fired the easy part was over. And the RSI 82 exit just hands back the parabolic legs.
the RSI 82 exit is doing exactly its job, you are comparing it to the one time QNT went vertical. 54 to 357 happens maybe once a cycle if that
the cross fired somewhere around 160 if i read the chart right. trend systems are built for grindy moves, QNT is anything but
of course the backtest loses when it buys the 244 breakout and rides it to 191. lump sum winning by 178 percent says more about QNT going parabolic once than about the system
lump sum at +178 percent is survivor math tor, you only know that in hindsight. the tranche system exists because nobody deploys 15k knowing QNT would 3x. judge it vs dca, not vs the perfect exit
fair point on hindsight but the engine had qnt at 357 and still said tranche. thats the part i cant get past, it left most of the move on the table by design
63 trades is also a tiny sample, you cant statistically separate a 40 percent win rate from coin flips at that size. the whole simulation is noise on noise
worse than small sample, all 63 trades sit in the same regime. one chop year and those 23.5 percent stops stack completely differently
63 trades is plenty to reject a system that loses 55 percent. the sample size question matters for the winners, not the verdict. you dont need 500 trades to know bleeding is bleeding
the backtest bleeding is the fee and stop structure, 63 trades each eating a 23.5 percent stop will do that. tighten the invalidation to the 50d and rerun it, the verdict probably flips to tolerable
23.5 percent stop on a coin with 11.7 percent daily ATR means the stop lives inside the noise. the system never had a chance regardless of the rerun
the noise argument is fair but the 50d invalidation rerun idea was already floating around, tighter stops on QNT still bleed in backtest. at some point the coin is just not trendable and no parameter set fixes that
+243% over 3 months but OBV trending down the whole time? someone is distributing into this rally hard
volume ratio 0.63 is the tell imo. a 3x move on shrinking volume aint healthy
0.63 cuts both ways tho. OBV down while price doubles can also just be coins moving to cold storage. agree on sizing down either way, thin volume both directions
cold storage interpretation only works if coins moved once and sat. OBV grinding down through the entire 3x smells more like steady selling into every leg up, not transfers
or a handful of long term wallets rotating to cold after the 3x. onchain flow reads are unfalsifiable, everyone has a different story for the same chart
not unfalsifiable though, exchange netflows dropped while OBV fell, that is coins leaving venues, not selling. the cold storage read is boring because it is usually right
Stop at 146.72 with price at 191.68 means eating a -23.5% drawdown per position before you are out. OBV down and volume ratio 0.63 look like distribution, id rather wait for a retest of the 50d near 149 before deploying tranche one.
-23.5% risk per position to maybe catch a bounce toward 357 is brutal math. id sooner half size and stop at the 50d, the 146.72 level is just where the last buyers got stuck
ADX 35.5 with a golden cross is genuinely strong. But chasing after a -28% month? id rather wait for a pullback toward the 50d at 149
if the trend strength is real the 50d retest costs you maybe 10 percent of upside. if its not you just saved a 23.5 percent stop. asymmetric in favor of waiting imo
ATR 11.7 percent a day and the stop sits 23.5 percent away at 146.72. thats two ugly candles from a full exit. targets 248 and 282 are fine, the stop math is what scares me
ATR of 11.7 percent means every tranche needs to be sized like its already stopped out. i would cut the 15k into eighths not quarters on a coin this jumpy
191 to a 146 stop on a coin with 11.7 percent daily ATR, one bad thursday and tranche one is gone. hold verdict is fine but i would leg in way slower than the plan says