This is an automated coin monitor, not investment advice.
Stellar (XLM)
USD 0.1669
USD 0.6342
-73.7%
Stage 4 (Downtrend)
Bullish factors: golden cross, MACD+
Bearish factors: price < 50d, price < 200d, 50d falling, RSI weak (40.8), falling 1m & 3m, far below high, strong bear trend (ADX 30.3), vol 1.3x on down day, distribution (OBV down, vol ratio 0.82)
Low: USD 0.0908
Now: USD 0.1669
Technical Snapshot
| RSI (14) | 40.8 | ADX (14) | 30.3 |
| 50d MA | USD 0.1919 | 200d MA | USD 0.1832 |
| Price vs 50d | ▼ Below | Price vs 200d | ▼ Below |
| Support | USD 0.1572 | Resistance | USD 0.2125 |
| ATR Volatility | 4.56%/day | Model state | Bearish trend |
Crypto Performance Comparison
| Asset | 1 Month | 3 Months | 6 Months | 1 Year |
| XLM | -8.7% | -9.4% | -3.9% | +5.1% |
| BTC | -2.3% | -1.3% | +33.9% | +21.8% |
| ETH | -1.2% | -3.9% | +53.4% | +24.9% |
| SOL | -8.3% | -7.1% | +37.1% | +17.8% |
Trend-Following Backtest
2-year simulation on a notional USD 15,000 starting balance using the model’s 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter. The model goes long when price is above a rising 50d MA with RSI 40-75, and goes flat on a death cross or RSI above 82. Hypothetical, before fees and slippage.
Strategy vs Buy & Hold
| Asset | Strategy | Buy & Hold | Max DD | Trades | Win Rate |
| XLM | -34.7% | -41.7% | -45.7% | 40 | 38% |
DCA vs Lump Sum (XLM)
Hypothetical result of a notional USD 15,000 placed one year ago under different timing schedules. Simulation only, not a recommendation.
| Strategy | Return | Value Today |
| Lump Sum (1y ago) | +5.1% | USD 9,295 |
| DCA — 4 buys | -3.8% | USD 14,436 |
| DCA — 6 buys | -13.7% | USD 12,951 |
| DCA — 12 buys | -12.8% | USD 13,073 |
Levels the system watches
Reference levels used by the trend model to classify XLM. They describe how the model reads the chart, not what anyone should do.
| Support (recent swing low) | USD 0.1572 |
| Resistance (recent swing high) | USD 0.2125 |
| Trend model’s invalidation level (ATR-based) | USD 0.1517 (-9.1% from current price) |
| ATR (14) | USD 0.007617 (4.56%/day) |
| Price location vs trend (model label) | Pullback |
The invalidation level is where the model would stop treating the current trend reading as valid (roughly 2x ATR below price or 0.5x ATR below the recent swing low, whichever is lower). It is a model parameter, not a stop-loss recommendation.
Backtest Trade Log
| Date | Action | Price | Simulated P&L |
| 2026-09-12 | BUY | USD 0.1801 | |
| 2026-09-13 | SELL | USD 0.1771 | -1.6% |
| 2026-09-14 | BUY | USD 0.1912 | |
| 2026-09-15 | SELL | USD 0.1761 | -7.9% |
| 2026-09-16 | BUY | USD 0.1836 | |
| 2026-09-17 | SELL | USD 0.1835 | -0.1% |
| 2026-09-18 | BUY | USD 0.1931 | |
| 2026-09-19 | SELL | USD 0.1962 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-20 | BUY | USD 0.1973 | |
| 2026-10-08 | SELL | USD 0.1920 | -2.7% |
| 2026-10-11 | BUY | USD 0.2029 | |
| 2026-10-12 | SELL | USD 0.1906 | -6.1% |
Trend-following methodology: 50d/200d MA crossover + RSI filter + ADX regime gate · Backtests are hypothetical and exclude fees.
RSI 40.8 and ADX at 30.3 while price sits under the 50d at 0.1919. that ADX reading means the downtrend actually has strength behind it, this isnt drifting, its trending
support at 0.1572 is barely 6% below spot and the ATR is 4.56% a day. one bad candle and that level is gone, the MACD bullish cross is noise at this range
XLM up 5.1% on the year while BTC did 21.8% and ETH 24.9%. holding since the 0.6342 high takes a special kind of patience